Monday Morning Quarterback

By BOP Staff

December 26, 2007

I feel so much merrier now. Don't you?

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Tom Hanks' hair will soon be cast in its own starring role

Kim Hollis: Charlie Wilson's War is estimated to be the second biggest opener of the weekend, earning $9.6 million, good enough for fourth place. Given the star power as opposed to the subject matter, do you consider this a good opening, a poor one, or just right (in the Goldilocks vernacular).

Pete Kilmer: For a subject matter that no movie goer cares about, it's probably fine. As for the star power...well it's not funny Tom Hanks or Oscar material Tom Hanks that showed up, it's someone in between. As for Julia, while she looks great in it, it's not a romantic/sexy/wacky comedy movie for her so no one cared.

Joel Corcoran: I think an apt comparison for Charlie Wilson's War is to look at how Crash (2005) performed at the box office two years ago. Like Crash, this film has immense star power, but an atypical socially weighty theme for a story (war compared to racism). The advertising strategy seems very similar (hint at unusual characters caught up in some big, meaningful context, but don't give away any details at all), and the box office reaction is almost identical. Crash earned $9.1 million it's opening weekend, and if we account for inflation, that would be about $9.7 million in today's dollars (if I'm doing the math correctly). So, I think this opening is just as good as Crash's was two years ago - "just right".

Reagen Sulewski: Hanks always seemed woefully miscast here. I don't blame the guy for branching out, but when I think "womanizing Congressman", I certainly do not think of today's Jimmy Stewart.

Max Braden: I think Charlie Wilson's numbers are just right for an opening, given the mix of high profile stars (though they were really the high profile stars of the 1990s) and the oddly light-hearted approach to a serious topic. The war-in-Iraq movies of the year attempted to tackle the issues pretty much head on; Sorkin manages to address the current state of affairs by reviewing events at some distance from the present, with snappy dialogue and enjoyable performances. I think though that once audiences see the movie, they'll be spreading good word-of-mouth and the box office take will remain steady for some time.

David Mumpower: What we see with this opening are two varying forces of box office behavior colliding. Star power has mattered more than normal in 2007, but people have utterly rejected war movies. The marketing did its best to disguise the nature of this title as an upbeat comedy, but movie goers sniffed out the darker subject matter. Given the quality of the movie as well as the quality of the cast, I would consider its opening a moderate disappointment.




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Kim Hollis: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, the latest Tim Burton/Johnny Depp production, earned an estimated $9.35 million. Exhibited in only 1,249 theaters, the musical has the second best per-venue average of the new releases with $7,486 per play-date. What do you think of this performance?

Joel Corcoran: Personally, I couldn't be happier - I've been anticipating this movie for a long time. But aside from that, I think it's a fantastic opening for the movie simply because of everything it had going against it. The story of Sweeney Todd is gruesome, dark, satirical, depressing, and nothing close to "holiday fare," and Johnny Depp is not known for his singing voice. This film is not loaded with cadre of stars and a lot of flash like the musicals Chicago or Hairspray, nor does it have the fun and frothy storyline of most musicals. In fact, I would call Sweeney Todd closer to opera than standard musical theater. When Chicago opened wide in 2003, it grossed $8.2 million ($9.4 million adjusted for inflation), and Hairspray opened this year to $27.5 million with a per-screen average of about $8,800. The fact that Sweeney Todd opened even in the same ballpark as these previous musicals is pretty damn impressive.

Reagen Sulewski: There seems to be a pretty standard opening weekend number for star-studded musicals now. You're never going to open to much more than this, but you'll never open too much below this either. The follow-up weekends are the big story. I'm not convinced this can break out because of the grisly subject matter. There's always the possibility of Depp's raving hordes buoying this, but I think this character might test them just like his character in Secret Window did.

Max Braden: I'd repeat what Joel said. Dickensian period pieces are niche market movies. Plus you're dealing with an R rating. Seven to eight grand per site for a wide release is a good number this weekend for a movie like this.

Pete Kilmer: I think the opening is about right for this project. It will have a LONG life on DVD for the Burton/Depp fans and I truly wouldn't be surprised if some kind of cult following develops around it (i.e. Nightmare Before Christmas, Edward Scissorhands and the like). This movie has a HUGE appeal for the goth crowd that is gonna keep it alive on DVD.


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