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Gotta Get'cha Head in the Game

Kim Hollis: Despite dismal tracking numbers with audiences and conservative estimates from forecasters (including our own Reagen Sulewski, who predicted a $14 million weekend), Hairspray was all the rage in theaters this weekend with a three-day total of $27.8 million. To what do you attribute its success?

Reagen Sulewski: Thanks, Kim. Want to open up a paper cut and pour a little lemon juice on that? Other people have pointed to High School Musical as a harbinger of the new teen popularity of musicals, and it sounds like a good a reason as any. And this one, apparently, is actually good, a novel approach. (Please, musical fans, send me more letters. Your anger feeds me.)

Dan Krovich: The move to summer was a sign that New Line was going to do something different with this musical. The recent trend has been a Fall/Winter release in a "prestige" slot and the Broadway audience didn't turn out to be so big with Rent, The Producers, and Phantom of the Opera. They knew they had that, but they were also able to turn it into a teen movie. It's the only one of the recent musical remakes to really target teens with a teen-friendly cast and a summer release. They were smart not to focus on Travolta and Pfeiffer in the advertising, and they put the teen cast front and center. The High School Musical fans turned out to see Zac Efron fall in love with the spirited overweight girl.

David Mumpower: I do believe this is the underlying key to its success. Nobody over 18 realizes this but High School Musical was the third-best selling TV on DVD product of calendar 2006. And I only mean the first release, not a combination of the multiple titles such as the Remix edition. This thing is a juggernaut and with anticipation building for the August 17th debut of the sequel, Efron's presence in Hairspray works as a wonderful short term substitute.

Max Braden: I was also thinking around $15 million, so the relatively large box office surprised me. I think what I overlooked was the most basic point that appealed to the moviegoers that went: "It looks like fun." If teens went to enjoy the high school dances, I now have no doubt that older generation women who first enjoyed John Travolta in "Grease" flocked to see John Travolta in drag.

Michael Bentley: I just can't believe that John Travolta has apparently resurrected his career once again. Even in drag!!

Jim Van Nest: Travolta does seem to have an endless supply of Hollywood lives, doesn't he? And this time, he didn't even have to do a talking baby movie. Having seen travolta on Letterman recently, he is one of the best talk show interviews going right now. I don't think we can discount that as a potential reason for his resurgence. He made me want to see Hairspray and until then, I couldn't have possibly cared less.

Tim Briody: I didn't find out until way late that a member of the High School Musical cast was in this. That's brilliant casting and probably represented a decent percentage of this weekend's take. I'm impressed.

Jerry Simpson: I'm giving all the credit to the Director, Adam Shankman. He keeps directing profitable movies that just should suck and somehow makes them work for the average movie-goer. Somewhere, the Devil has a soul and Adam has hits with The Pacifier, Bringing Down the House, A Walk to Remember, Hairspray, The Wedding Planner, and Cheaper by the Dozen 2...

Kim Hollis: It was a fluffy, colorful, fun looking film that really does work right in the High School Musical wheelhouse. At one time, I had mentioned that I thought it would be a much bigger hit than anyone was expecting. I backed off of that thought when I saw tracking, but my original instincts that it would find a solid audience were sound.

David Mumpower: Kim and I have been debating the box office potential of this one for some time. Given that it's a John Waters premise featuring a transvestite no one particularly likes these days in John Travolta, I am deeply surprised that she has been right all along. While I will continue to mock Reagen indefinitely for missing the mark by so much on Hairspray, the terrible truth is that I would have thought him to be high on this one if anything.

We're 95% certain that reviews aren't important

Kim Hollis: Usually, we say that reviews really don't matter on opening weekend. Given the fact that Hairspray is 94% positive at RottenTomatoes, is it possible that this particular type of film might be an exception to that rule?

Joel Corcoran: If by "this particular type of film" you mean one of those rare films with a very strong (dare I say "cult") following, then yes, I agree - reviews do matter. We're talking about the musical film adaptation of the Broadway musical adaptation of the original movie released almost 20 years ago. "Hairspray" isn't just a movie, it's an entertainment industry unto itself. Had early reviews been generally poor, I think you would've seen a significantly lower box office take on opening weekend. But I think that as long as the reviews are decent to good (if not fantastic as in this case), cultish fans are going to flock to see whatever incarnation of their favorite movie/musical/stage/film production happens to be opening down at the local metroplex.

Reagen Sulewski: Reviews generally don't matter unless they're universally in one direction or another, for the right type of film. For a populist film, like a musical, it really can live or die based on that.

Kim Hollis: By "this type of film", I was generally targeting musicals as well as perhaps some of the dance movies that have appeared over the years. I would definitely say that reviews had an impact in this case, particularly as they were so universally positive. Had they been negative, we'd be making Battlefield Earth jokes today.

David Mumpower: I will go against popular opinion here and maintain that reviews did not in fact have a significant impact on the box office. What matters most is the way that the film spiked its tracking by 80%, and the reason for that is the same reason it almost always is. Hairspray tapped the under-18 demographic to a shocking degree. This is a Stomp the Yard (which opened to $25.9 million despite dreadful reviews) redux, not a statement about the movie's quality. That will show up in its legs.

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