July 2008 Forecast
By David Mumpower
July 2, 2008
1) The Dark Knight
The only question involving The Dark Knight at this point is whether its final domestic box office take will surpass Iron Man and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull to become the number one hit of the summer and, presumably, the year. Those two films are currently within $9 million of each other for the title, with Crystal Skull holding a strong possibility of temporarily going ahead for a few days before eventually ceding the title to the head Avenger. So, it's the YouTube gag of I'm a Marvel and I'm a DC unfolding at the Cineplex. For most of the year, I had been expecting Batman to come up short (after all, its immediate predecessor, Batman Begins, earned "only" $205.3 million). In recent weeks, however, I must admit that the buzz surrounding the project seems Spider-Man-esque. The only question is whether the unmistakable malevolence of the project stops some parents from (rightly) taking their kids to theaters. As of this moment, I believe The Dark Knight is the favorite to win the summer, which would also mean that we have films clear $300 million in three consecutive months.
2) Hancock
Will Smith's run of successful movie releases doesn't quite rival Pixar, but he's got pretty much everyone else in the world beat. He's like a series of Harry Potter movies, but with mutants and tense solutions to the Rubik's Cube. Hancock is a rather daring role for him in that the character appears truly despicable, an uncontrollable anti-hero. This movie seems like Mystery Men with just a touch of Galaxy Quest thrown in, but the presence of Smith fundamentally alters its opening weekend box office expectations. Were anyone else starring in this movie, we would be talking about My Super Ex-Girlfriend as an accurate comparison. With Smith starring in a trailer featuring the insertion of one felon's head in another's posterior (complete with hysterical sound effect), it turns into a title headed for $175+ million at the box office. If the Fresh Prince ever provides the lead voice in a Pixar movie about Harry Potter, Titanic's reign will end.
3) Hellboy 2: The Golden Army
The difference between the top two films in July and the rest of the list is the difference between LeBron James and the rest of the Cleveland Cavaliers. Hellboy 2 could break $100 million, but in order to accomplish this feat, it would have to be the rare sequel to outperform its successor. I suspect that it will follow The Dark Knight in this regard. Of course, that may be wishing and hoping on my part more than anything. The first Hellboy is a personal favorite and the previews for this film have me hoping for a truly spectacular comic book adaptation with fairy tale elements in place. Given the audience reception to the trailers, I see this as distinct possibility.
4) Journey to the Center of the Earth
Yeah, I'm not sure about this one, either. The commercials are far from stellar, and the end bit with the dinosaur drooling over a prepubescent boy is a bit too Neverland Ranch for me. It seems to do well with its intended target audience, however. You know these people as the ones who failed to make Speed Racer a hit, but I am going out on a limb here with the argument that this IMAX release will prove more enticing. The Real-D technology in place leads to higher ticket prices (roughly $12.50 as opposed to the current average ticket price of $7.11) in over a quarter of its exhibitions. I'm not saying this will be a blockbuster by any stretch. Walden Media is floating a $45 million production budget for the film, though, meaning it doesn't have to do that well to be a winner.
Continued:
1
2
3
Print this column
