Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
March 12, 2007
BoxOfficeProphets.com

The ball is tipped, there you are.

Somewhere, Russell Crowe just threw a phone at someone

Kim Hollis: North American audiences were treated to summer in March with a dozen films totaling $139.4 million worth of box office. Anchoring the weekend was 300's March record $70 million opening. How shocked are you by this performance?

Tim Briody: I think we all thought that it would be a breakout performer, but not to this extent. I guess audiences just wanted something really violent. Buncha savages in this continent.

David Mumpower: I don't know if shocked even begins to describe it. A $70 million opening the first quarter of the year is stunning for a sequel to Ice Age. For a completely unheralded comic book adaptation starring virtual unknowns, it's...historic.

Reagen Sulewski: This is a really big deal. It's well above the normal "big" opening weekends and into the truly collosal. 2007 appears to be operating on another level from other years so far.

Kim Hollis: I was expecting more than $50 million. I *wasn't* expecting $20 million more than $50 million.

Reagen Sulewski: Seriously, ask a person on the street to name someone in the cast. Unless you run into a fan of The Wire, you're not gonna find a single one.

David Mumpower: Reagen, you made a great point before. Before Monday Morning Quarterback went on vacation back in the winter, we were talking about how May of 2007 would be huge. With the last two weeks of sensational openings, we're not even having to wait that long to see brilliant opening weekends.

Tim Briody: This thing wasn't even on anyone's radar until December, almost a rarity in this age of overhyped-for-months sequels and event films.

Reagen Sulewski: It's that rare case of someone bringing something unique to the screen and having it work. I think the key thing is that they experimented in a safe genre.

Kim Hollis: I think 300 is a case where the coolness factor rises above the casting. It was a unique looking, shiny film for young men in the ideal demographic.

David Mumpower: "Joey, do you like movies about gladiators?" has never seemed so profound.

Reagen Sulewski: it wasn't a particularly complicated looking film either, and it was clear from the start that it was going to deliver what it promised. No bait and switch here.

David Mumpower: That's a good point. Like Borat, it promised something in the trailers that wasn't complicated and that delivered on its premise.

Now, if only Frank Miller could go somewhere with All-Star Batman & Robin

Kim Hollis: Who do you think deserves the most credit here - Frank Miller, Zack Snyder or Gerard Butler?

Tim Briody: The answer, Kim, is the marketing department. I don't think most of the people responsible for the $70 million could figure out who any of those three names were.

Reagen Sulewski: I'd split it between Miller and Snyder. Miller, for giving its look and vision and Snyder for being able to follow it and translate it. Butler gets a smidge.

David Mumpower: Tim's right. All of them get more credibility because of this, but it's not like any of them can (accurately) claim to be the draw. As Reagen hinted, I am not sure 30% of the people who -saw- the movie know Gerard Butler's name now.

Tim Briody: We were shown a preview of a movie that promised a lot of action and violence, and that's what we got.

Kim Hollis: I actually agree, Tim. I don't think that the broad audience had a clue that it was based on a comic book. And I also think it's the kind of movie where director doesn't matter unless they're awful. Really, I'd say the special effects gurus probably deserve the biggest pat on the back.

Coming very soon to a theater near you: God of War the Movie, Prince of Persia the Movie and Indiana Jones the Videogame the Movie

David Mumpower: The one aspect of this where I believe Snyder deserves a ton of credit is in his implementation of something the action genre had been sorely lacking: boss fights. 300 is oftentimes a videogame disguised as a movie. That's pure genius right there. It strikes the perfect chord for its target audience.

Tim Briody: I hope he dropped some phat loot.

Kim Hollis: Really, I always thought the trailer looked more like it was for a video game than for a film. So the boss fight thing makes perfect sense.

David Mumpower: Between this and the Dawn of the Dead re-make, Snyder is proving himself to be exactly the type of director frauds like Michael Bay and McG posture themselves to be.

Reagen Sulewski: Up, Up, Down, Down, Left, Right, Left, Right, B, A.

Tim Briody: Uwe Boll, take note.

Reagen Sulewski: Don't. Encourage. The Boll.

Kim Hollis: *mashes a bunch of buttons at once*

David Mumpower: On a sidenote, this is sheer anecdotal speculation on my part, but I do feel the anticipation a lot of young males have for God of War II's release this week heightened the demand for the similarly themed 300.

Wa wa wee wa! Buy my video or I will be execute!

Kim Hollis: Are you more impressed by Borat's $26.5 million opening in 837 exhibitions or 300's $70 million in 3,103?

Reagen Sulewski: I think maybe still Borat. That had much room for error.

Tim Briody: I agree, and it was a bit more of a wild card even at its release.

David Mumpower: They're the same story on a different scale. Both feature unknowns and seemed to have little buzz until the month of release. Borat's venue average dwarfs 300's and the difference in budgets ($18 million vs. $60 million) also favors that project. Each is a stunning accomplishment of marketing, however. Also, 300 is the significantly better movie, which should count for something.

Kim Hollis: Yeah, I would have to say Borat as well. It was much closer to being an out-of-nowhere success than what 300 was. I remember people noticing 300 during the third quarter of 2006 when the trailer came out. Borat gained steam in its last few weeks. It was also a *much* harder sell, I think. People like gladiator movies (for some reason).

Reagen Sulewski: I'm not sure I'd agree with you on that last point, David, but it's a matter of opinion.

David Mumpower: I wanted to enjoy Borat more than I did and once the shock value was gone, it doesn't hold up well. 300's quality is unmistakable, because it's a bunch of great character actors telling a proven story.

Reagen Sulewski: I think everyone involved gets to write their own ticket for the next little while, which is the important thing.

David Mumpower: That's right. The biggest winner in all of this is Watchmen, which just went from a hard sell to a possible tentpole release.

You really shouldn't encourage them, people

Kim Hollis: Equally impressive on a smaller scale is the success of Wild Hogs. The mid-life crisis comedy declined a mere 29% to $28 million, giving it a gigantic ten-day total of $77.4 million. Are you more surprised by its opening weekend or its staying power?

Reagen Sulewski: I kind of had a feeling about its staying power, although not to this degree. It looked just middle-of-the-road enough to twig with suburban audiences.

David Mumpower: I would say I'm equally surprised...and impressed. We have argued for years that competition is overrated, but part of me expected it to get swallowed somewhat by 300 despite the lack of demographic overlap. A 29% holdover is sensational. $135 million in domestic receipts seems likely now. Who saw that coming?

Reagen Sulewski: It's like they filmed an extra special movie edition of Home Improvement or something.

Tim Briody: The stupidity of it was too hard to overcome, but we really should have seen this coming. Every few years there's a March comedy that hits it big with adult viewers, whether we like it or not. I mentioned Analyze This and Bringing Down the House in the Friday analysis as perfect comparisons.

Kim Hollis: I'm a little more surprised by the opening itself. I was expecting it to strike a chord and be pretty big - but $28 million big rather than $40 million big. After its Friday-to-Sunday multiplier last weekend, I really expected it to have great hold this week, too. People who like this sort of thing seem to be enjoying it (regardless of reviews).

Tim Briody: I suppose we should be happy that William H. Macy gets to pay the mortgage for a few months?

Kim Hollis: I don't really think there's any worry about that with Felicity's paychecks.

Reagen Sulewski: We were this close to getting rid of Martin Lawrence for good. Now we'll get 17 more fatsuits comedies with him.