Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
December 3, 2006
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Happy Feet performed a feat last seen by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest when it finished in the number one spot for a third straight weekend. Its $17 million this weekend gives it a running total of $121 million. Where do you rank this performance among recent CGI flicks?
Reagen Sulewski: Considering that this is the year that the bubble finally burst for CGI animation, this is a great performance, akin to an Ice Age.
Tim Briody: It's pretty impressive considering how many have just up and died this year. And further proof that penguins are money.
Kim Hollis: Yup. It's a penguin world. We're all just living in it.
David Mumpower: Given that the studio in question is Warner Bros., a bunch not known for their animation, it's massive. This is their Ice Age. Introducing a new animated franchise is always a challenge, but they have succeeded in impressive fashion.
Joel Corcoran: Definitely up there with Ice Age and Madagascar. And if you're measuring actual performance against expectations, I think it should be set in the lofty atmosphere of Shrek and Monsters, Inc.
Kim Hollis: I seem to be the only person in the world who had these kinds of high expectations for Happy Feet.
Tim Briody: I never saw it coming. It took me a while to get past the title, actually.
David Mumpower: I agree with Joel. Relative to expectations, I don't know of anyone other than Kim who was certain this would be over $100 million after three weekends. We are talking about a $160-$175 million earner that was completely beneath radar.
Reagen Sulewski: Well, you and me, Kim. Those were some really cute animals that brought in pretty much every six-year-old out there.
Kim Hollis: Right, you drilled it on opening weekend, Reagen.
David Mumpower: What was your opening weekend forecast again, Reagen? I don't recall.
Reagen Sulewski: $44.7 million.
Joel Corcoran: I had an inkling when I called my brother and in the background I heard my toddler nieces screaming "Play the penguins again, daddy! Play them again! Again!" But I didn't think it would be quite this big nor as enduring.
James Bond can stop any villain in a penguin suit but not the penguins themselves.
Kim Hollis: The shockingly competitive race between Happy Feet and Casino Royale continues as the latest Bond flick earned another $15.1 million, giving it a grand total of $115.9 million. Has Sony succeeded in reinvigorating the Bond franchise?
Joel Corcoran: God, I hope so...
Reagen Sulewski: I would say undoubtedly so. I'm not surprised that people were curious about the new Bond and the new approach, but I am a bit surprised that it's held on this well. It's such an oddly paced film.
Tim Briody: Die Another Day was the highest grossing Bond movie ever, so some might argue that it didn't need reinvigorating, but doing a reboot since Pierce Brosnan didn't want to do another one was the completely right idea.
David Mumpower: Tomorrow Never Dies earned $125 million. The World Is Not Enough earned $127 million. Die Another Day earned $160 million. I wouldn't say that the franchise was in any real trouble, but this is unquestionably another huge hit for the Broccoli family.
Chopping Broccoli!
Kim Hollis: Since I never really had an interest in the Brosnan Bond films and was excited to see this one (and give it a solid A), I definitely think things have been shaken up in a positive fashion.
Tim Briody: By the way, there just aren't enough jokes that the guy's name is Broccoli.
Joel Corcoran: I really liked the Brosnan films, and to be perfectly honest, I was one of those Bond fans that had serious reservations about Daniel Craig playing 007. However, I'm very glad to be proven wrong.
David Mumpower: I can't give it a solid A, Kim. That last half hour was a mess. There were so many fake endings it felt like a Peter Jackson movie.
Reagen Sulewski: I'm also not that sure about a spy movie that has a half hour of poker in it.
Tim Briody: That makes it edgy! It's all the rage with the kids these days, you know.
Kim Hollis: I think a lot of Bond films tend to follow that pattern - multiple fake endings. At least I remember several of them feeling that way.
David Mumpower: Quality aside, I think we all agree that as impressive as Happy Feet has been, it's equally impressive that the latest James Bond film matched it not just opening weekend but also in terms of legs. Family, animated movies should have much better legs than action films. Clearly, this Bond is striking the right chord with mainstream audiences.
Kim Hollis: I think it strikes the right chord with the ladies. Rowr.
Joel Corcoran: It would be interesting to know how the audience broke down according to fans of the Bond franchise. I wouldn't be surprised if die-hard fans stayed away the first weekend out of trepidation, but I'll bet the "rediscovery" of Bond becoming 007 brought in new fans. And can we please not beat up on Peter Jackson? We Lord of the Rings fans are having a bad week as it is...
Score one for Spike Lee!
Kim Hollis: Deja Vu, the latest Denzel Washington/Tony Scott action flick, earned another $11 million, bringing its total to $44.1 million. Given the budget of $80 million and the knowledge that Inside Man earned $88.5 million, how do feel about Deja Vu's performance?
Tim Briody: Something is just awfully familiar here, but I can't quite put my finger on it.
Reagen Sulewski: I had thought this might do a little better. This was one of those premises that should sell itself, but it did basically the same as an average Denzel movie.
Tim Briody: Thanksgiving was just a miserable time to release this, even if it's done okay.
David Mumpower: The concern for Disney/Touchstone is that the Universal Project, Inside Man, had a much lower budget of $45 million. So, the numbers are effectively reversed right now. The $45 million movie made $88 million while the $80 million production is in the low $40s on its way to maybe $65 million. That's disappointing although not disastrous.
Kim Hollis: I don't know that Deja Vu felt particularly special or unique. Inside Man at least offered Denzel, Jodie Foster, Clive Owen and Spike Lee.
Reagen Sulewski: Didn't a lot of that have to do with production delays due to Katrina? Not that it makes people feel that much better.
BOP repeats itself. BOP repeats itself.
Joel Corcoran: Deja Vu does seem like a more traditional action flick with a science fiction angle to it. Something more along the lines of I, Robot or Minority Report. And Inside Man was definitely a unique, original story within the traditional crime drama genre.
David Mumpower: I think Kim has struck upon the key here. Deja Vu might have been more expensive to make but it felt less unique than Inside Man.
Kim Hollis: I think Kim has struck upon the key here. Deja Vu might have been more expensive to make but it felt less unique than Inside Man.
David Mumpower: And redundant.
Kim Hollis: And redundant.
Nation rejects baby Jesus. Religious right mourns.
Kim Hollis: The Nativity Story was the biggest new opener this weekend, a situation not unlike being the best Houston Texan. The film managed only $8 million from 3,183 venues, a miserable per exhibition average of $2,514. Will it recover over the holidays or has it failed to capitalize on its seasonal timing?
David Mumpower: In my forecast, I indicated an expectation for over 50% more business than the project managed this weekend. As such, I have obviously over-estimated demand for the product. I figured that the time was right for a straightforward (i.e. not cynical) re-telling of the purest Christmas story. I am frankly stunned about how nonchalant movie-goers appear to be about The Nativity Story.
Reagen Sulewski: I wouldn't be surprised to see this as a big Christmas Day film, but that's going to be on a relative scale.
Joel Corcoran: I don't see how it can recover over the holidays. It hasn't really sparked a fervor among movie fans of any stripe, and it's going to face increasingly strong competition over the next few weeks.
Kim Hollis: It didn't have the massive controversy of The Passion of the Christ, but I think it will level out as weeks go on. It's a safe choice.
Reagen Sulewski: I didn't think it looked all that good, quite frankly.
David Mumpower: But it did have a controversy. Do you think the teen pregnancy of Keisha Castle-Hughes hurt the movie's appeal in religious sectors?
Joel Corcoran: David, I would argue that movie-goers are nonchalant about this movie because it is straightforward. It's the same story we Christians have heard every Advent since we were born. There doesn't seem to be anything new about it at all, unlike other Christian-themed films from the past few years.
Kim Hollis: It might have had a small effect on religious movie goers, but I think it's more that it wasn't marketed much and looked bland.
Reagen Sulewski: Keisha's not really gossip-column worthy so I wonder how many of its target audience even knew.
David Mumpower: Joel, upon consideration, I am beginning to see Reagen and your points. There just isn't anything exciting about this production. It should still show legs over the next four weeks, but it should have done better.
Joel Corcoran: Exactly. I think it will drone on through the holidays and quietly fade away after New Year's.
More like Dreck the Halls and The Santa Crime.
Kim Hollis: Speaking of holiday projects, Deck the Halls is now at $25 million, while The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause is at $73.2 million. One is a hit and the other is a dog, right?
Joel Corcoran: Maybe. If I could figure out which was which...
David Mumpower: Deck the Halls doesn't even deserve the $40-$45 million it will wind up getting. That project is an abomination. As for the third Santa Clause project, it's more of a 'to be determined'. It's still $65 million behind the less successful of the two prior films. We need to see how much more staying power it has before determining its success or failure.
Reagen Sulewski: Santa Clause 3 has to be a bit troubling since it's going to end up with just 2/3 of number 2. Deck the Halls is a flop and deservedly so. It looks like they tried to make a whole movie out of one scene from Christmas Vacation.
Kim Hollis: I don't know. Deck the Halls has made about $22.2 million more than I was hoping it would.
Reagen Sulewski: I mean, don't we actually hate these people with the obnoxious Christmas displays? Who cares whose is better?
Joel Corcoran: It's a worn-out story from a tired genre. I just hope I don't have to take my nieces to The Santa Clause 7: The Non-Compete Clause.
Reagen Sulewski: I've got $4 million to wave under your nose for those story rights, Joel.
Joel Corcoran: Okay. Won't take me more than a weekend to write the script anyway.
David Mumpower: A whole weekend? Overachiever.
Apathy, party of five.
Kim Hollis: There were two other openers this week. Turistas earned only $3.5 million, while National Lampoon's Van Wilder: The Rise of Taj earned $2.3 million. Is either one anything other than a bust?
Reagen Sulewski: Van Wilder's failure is a bit of a surprise since Kal Penn's got a bit of fame, sort of a low rent Seann William Scott.
Kim Hollis: Yeah, but even Harold and Kumar was shaky - and that was with what I thought was great marketing.
David Mumpower: Both of them appear to have been released solely to remind consumers how lousy post-Thanksgiving openers are.
Reagen Sulewski: Yeah, but even at that I thought $5 or 6 million might be possible. $2 million is the "background noise" level of opening weekend. You could almost get that from wide releasing a blank screen.
Joel Corcoran: I'd rather watch a blank screen over some of these releases. Two hours of calming blankness is worthwhile during the holiday rush.
This is all Shrek's fault.
Kim Hollis: Finally, there is one other release we haven't discussed. Flushed Away earned $2.3 million and appears to be almost out of theaters with box office of just over $60 million. Should Paramount/DreamWorks and Aardman Animation be satisfied with this result?
Reagen Sulewski: As an Aardman fan, I'm a bit disappointed. They appear to be just treading water.
David Mumpower: Clearly, they aren't since Aardman Animation has made it clear they will never work with DreamWorks Animation again. To that end, it's a confusing result. It's a few million better than the $56 million Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit earned, but it's $45 million down from Chicken Run. I get the vibe that DreamWorks does not believe in the type of movies Aardman's team makes.
Joel Corcoran: Again, I think it comes down to advance expectations. It seems like Flushed Away performed about as well as any other recent animated film. However, given the talent behind the film, I think it is a bit disappointing.
Kim Hollis: I do think it's a little tougher to sell rats and toilets than it is chickens and Mel Gibson. Or Mel Gibson circa 2000, anyway.