Now Playing
By Steve Mason
November 22, 2006
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The booming holiday business will be boosted by those dancin' penguins and by the new blonde Bond, which I am projecting to finish in the top three. The new Denzel Washington-Tony Scott thriller is also sure to come out of the box with a big number. After that, not a lot is certain.
There is a lot of product, including a badly-reviewed holiday picture (Deck the Halls), a monumental but admirable bomb (The Fountain), an ensemble historical cavalcade of stars from the Weinsteins (Bobby) and vanity project from an actor who, for me, has worn out his welcome (Tenacious D in: The Pick of Destiny).
This column is stuffed like a Thanksgiving turkey with analysis, numbers, opinion, insider speculation and guesswork, and hopefully, at the end of the weekend, my projections will approximate the actual studio-reported figures.
Here goes...
Denzel Washington is among Hollywood's most durable stars. He's not the most exciting actor around. His movies all feel derivative at this point. What was the storyline of Man on Fire? Who remembers what Out of Time was about? John Q had something to do with a hospital, right? Not that it matters. We're comfortable with him as a leading man.
He's also delivered some phenomenal performances. He was riveting in Ed Zwick's Civil War epic Glory. He deserved to win Best Actor for Malcolm X and again for The Hurricane, and finally scored the big prize for the evil cop in Training Day. Washington also gave an underrated performance opposite Tom Hanks in Philadelphia. Hanks had the showstopper role, but Denzel was perfect as the honestly flawed attorney whose eyes we see the story through.
Director Tony Scott has teamed with Washington twice before, on Crimson Tide and Man On Fire, and he's turned to "Mr. Reliable" again hoping to regroup after the dismal performance of last year's Domino. In fact, it's been a couple of decades since his biggest success, Top Gun, so it's fair to say that he could use a hit.
Scott's new film Deja Vu (Buena Vista), also starring Val Kilmer and Jim Caviezel, has something to do with that feeling that you've seen something before. It's a feeling I get all too often when I go to the movies. But, word is that this movie has a very clever premise and is exceedingly well-executed. I'm told that industry tracking has been very strong for weeks, and for an action film, the numbers with women are especially good.
Casino Royale and Deja Vu will finish two and three, but I'm calling for Denzel by a nose over Daniel Craig. Both films should score $29-$32 million for the five-day and $21-$24 million for the three-day.
Deja Vu By The Numbers
Top 10 Tony Scott-Directed Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Top Gun - $176,786,000
2. Beverly Hills Cop II - $153,665,000
3. Enemy of the State - $111,549,000
4. Crimson Tide - $91,387,000
5. Days of Thunder - $82,670,000
6. Man On Fire - $77,911,000
7. Spy Game - $62,362,000
8. The Last Boy Scout - $59,509,000
9. The Fan - $18,626,000
10. Revenge - $15,645,000
Top 10 Denzel Washington Movies – Domestic Box Office
1. Remember the Titans - $115,654,000
2. The Pelican Brief - $100,768,000
3. Crimson Tide - $91,387,000
4. Inside Man - $88,513,000
5. Man On Fire - $77,911,000
6. Philadelphia - $77,446,000
7. Training Day - $76,631,000
8. John Q - $71,756,000
9. The Bone Collector - $66,518,000
10. The Manchurian Candidate - $65,955,000
Top 10 Val Kilmer Movies – Domestic Box Office
1. Batman Forever - $184,031,000
2. Top Gun - $176,786,000
3. The Prince of Egypt - $101,413,000
4. Heat - $67,436,000
5. Willow - $57,269,000
6. Tombstone - $56,505,000
7. The Ghost & the Darkness - $38,619,000
8. The Doors - $34,416,000
9. The Missing - $27,011,000
10. Top Secret! - $20,458,000
Top 5 Jim Caviezel Movies – Domestic Box Office
1. The Passion of the Christ - $370,274,000
2. The Rock - $134,069,000
3. The Count of Monte Cristo - $54,234,000
4. G.I. Jane - $48,169,000
5. Frequency - $45,010,000
The first time I remember seeing Jack Black in a film was High Fidelity. It's a wildly entertaining movie, and he's the best thing in it. His vocal performance at the end was phenomenal. It's hard to believe that singing voice comes out of such an odd-looking guy.
He went on to The School of Rock and that hilarious cameo in Anchorman where he punts Ron Burgundy's dog off the bridge. Then came Nacho Libre which struck me as dumb and self-indulgent, and now, he's teamed up with bandmate Kyle Gass for Tenacious D in: The Pick of Destiny.
There's a certain segment of the public that is anxiously anticipating this one. I'm told that this picture is tracking well with Under 25 Males, but that's about it. It's just hard to imagine any woman having any interest in a dumb movie about two dumb guys doing a bunch of dumb things. And, as much as I love movies about dumb guys, this has the feel of a vanity project. It's Jack Black getting together with his friend and making a movie to promote his band. This picture will be limited to a five-day of $11-$14 million and a three-day of $7-$10 million.
Tenacious D in: The Pick of Destiny By The Numbers
Top 10 Jack Black Films – Domestic Box Office
1. King Kong - $218,080,000
2. Ice Age - $176,387,000
3. Shark Tale - $160,861,000
4. Enemy of the State - $111,549,000
5. Waterworld - $88,246,000
6. Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy - $85,288,000
7. The School of Rock - $81,261,000
8. Nacho Libre - $80,197,000
9. The Cable Guy - $60,240,000
10. I Still Know What You Did Last Summer - $40,002,000
Top 5 Kyle Gass Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Elf - $173,398,000
2. Shallow Hal - $70,839,000
3. The Cable Guy - $60,240,000
4. Evolution - $38,345,000
5. The New Guy - $29,760,000
All-Time Top 20 Movies About the Music/Music Business – Domestic Box Office
1. Walk the Line - $119,519,000
2. 8 Mile - $116,750,000
3. Mr. Holland's Opus - $82,569,000
4. The School of Rock - $81,261,000
5. Ray - $75,331,000
6. Purple Rain - $68,392,000
7. Coal Miner's Daughter - $67,182,000
8. The Blues Brothers - $57,229,000
9. La Bamba - $54,215,000
10. Amadeus - $51,973,000
11. What's Love Got To Do With It - $39,100,000
12. Shine - $35,892,000
13. Selena - $35,281,000
14. The Doors - $34,416,000
15. Almost Famous - $32,534,000
16. Get Rich Or Die Tryin' - $30,984,000
17. High Fidelity - $27,287,000
18. That Thing You Do! - $25,857,000
19. Rock Star - $17,008,000
20. The Buddy Holly Story - $14,363,000
Christmas With The Kranks opened on Thanksgiving weekend in 2004 and somehow managed to rake in $73 million. This awful film proved that even with marginal stars (Tim Allen and Jamie Lee Curtis) and scathing reviews, a movie about Christmas has a certain built-in family audience. Along comes Deck the Halls (Fox), which will test this theory with even less of a movie.
I'm no Scrooge. I love Christmas and welcome good movies that celebrate the season. It's a Wonderful Life is the benchmark. Who among us can watch that final scene, with Jimmy Stewart and Donna Reed in front of the Christmas tree as Clarence gets his wings, without reaching for a Kleenex? A Christmas Story from Bob Clark is still one of the best (I remember my Mom making me wear one of those bulky snowmobile suits when I was a kid), and Elf is a modern classic.
But when it comes to movies about suburban guys obsessively competing to turn their homes into the ultimate Christmas light display, I'll take Chevy Chase in National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation, thank you. Although always a funny ensemble player, Danny DeVito hasn't headlined a successful film in a very long time and Matthew Broderick has rarely found a film role that showcases his unique talents (and this isn't it).
Dreck...er...Deck the Halls will not Krank out a big number this weekend. In fact, I say it misses the top five altogether. Look for $11-$14 million for the 5-day and $7-$10 million for the three-day.
Deck The Halls By The Numbers
Top 3 John Whitesell-Directed Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Big Momma's House 2 - $70,165,000
2. Malibu's Most Wanted - $34,432,000
3. See Spot Run - $33,357,000
Top 10 Danny DeVito Movies – Domestic Box Office
1. Austin Powers in Goldmember - $213,307,000
2. Batman Returns - $162,831,000
3. Twins - $111,938,000
4. One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest - $108,981,000
5. Terms of Endearment - $108,423,000
6. Space Jam - $90,418,000
7. The War of the Roses - $86,888,000
8. Romancing the Stone - $76,572,000
9. The Jewel of the Nile - $75,973,000
10 Get Shorty - $72,101,000
Top 5 Matthew Broderick Movies – Domestic Box Office
1. The Lion King - $312,855,000
2. Godzilla - $136,314,000
3. Inspector Gadget - $97,403,000
4. WarGames - $79,567,000
5. Ferris Bueller's Day Off - $70,136,000
All-Time Top 10 Christmas Movies – Domestic Box Office
1. How the Grinch Stole Christmas - $260,044,000
2. The Polar Express - $173,675,000
3. Elf - $173,398,000
4. The Santa Clause - $144,833,000
5. The Santa Clause 2 - $139,236,000
6. Christmas With the Kranks - $73,780,000
7. Christmas Vacation - $71,319,000
8. Jingle All the Way - $60,592,000
9. Scrooged - $60,328,000
10. Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas - $58,582,000
There are two theories about why MGM/Weinstein Co. is opening Bobby on Thanksgiving Day instead of Wednesday. I spoke with one distribution executive who swears it's because they want to dodge bad reviews. The official reason for the Thursday opening is that the 22nd (Wednesday) is the anniversary of JFK's assassination.
I believe that the unusual opening date is because of the ominous anniversary. After all, Bobby as debuted at the Toronto International Film Festival and recently played at AFI. There are plenty of advance reviews online, and, although not unanimous, they skew to the positive.
Who would've thought that the Weinsteins would hitch their Oscar wagon to a film directed by Emilio Estevez, whose previous films grossed a combined $21 million, but Bob and Harvey are going all-out for Bobby.
It's easier to list the major stars who aren't in Bobby as opposed to those that are. It feels a little like The Towering Inferno or a very highbrow episode of The Love Boat, and reviewers generally find it to be a little "on the nose," but I suspect that Bobby will strike a chord with Americans who have grown weary of a misguided war and politicians who can't be trusted.
This earnest effort is tracking extraordinarily well with Women 25 Plus and is solid with Men 25 Plus as well. On approximately 1,700 screens, I say Bobby does $7-$10 million for the five-day (it only gets four days because of the Thursday opening) and $5-$8 million for the three-day.
Bobby By The Numbers
Top 3 Emilio Estevez-Directed Movies – Domestic Box Office
1. Men At Work - $16,247,000
2. Wisdom - $5,715,000
3. The War At Home - $44,722
Top 5 Emilio Estevez Films As An Actor – Domestic Box Office
1. Stakeout - $65,673,000
2. The Mighty Ducks - $50,752,000
3. The Breakfast Club - $45,875,000
4. Young Guns - $45,661,000
5. D2: The Mighty Ducks - $45,610,000
Top 5 Martin Sheen Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Catch Me If You Can - $164,615,000
2. The Departed - $113,841,0000
3. Apocalypse Now - $78,784,000
4. JFK - $70,405,000
5. The American President - $60,079,000
Top 5 Anthony Hopkins Films - Domestic Box Office
1. How the Grinch Stole Christmas - $266,044,000
2. Mission Impossible II - $215,409,000
3. Hannibal - $165,092,000
4. The Silence of the Lambs - $130,742,000
5. Red Dragon - $93,149,000
Top 5 Elijah Wood Films - Domestic Box Office
1. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King - $377,027,000
2. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - $339,789,000
3. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring - $313,364,000
4. Deep Impact - $140,464,000
5. Spy Kids 3D: Game Over – $111,761,000
Top 5 Sharon Stone Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Total Recall - $119,394,000
2. Basic Instinct - $117,727,000
3. Antz - $90,757,000
4. The Specialist - $57,362,000
5. Last Action Hero - $50,016,000
Top 5 Demi Moore Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Ghost - $217,631,000
2. A Few Good Men - $141,340,000
3. Indecent Proposal - $106,614,000
4. Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle - $100,830,000
5. The Hunchback of Notre Dame - $100,138,000
Top 5 Helen Hunt Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Twister - $241,721,000
2. Cast Away - $233,632,000
3. What Women Want - $182,811,000
4. As Good As Gets - $148,478,000
5. Peggy Sue Got Married - $41,382,000
All-Time Top 5 Movies Featuring Kennedys – Domestic Box Office
1. Forrest Gump – JFK – $329,624,000
2. JFK – JFK, Jackie, JFK Jr. et al - $70,405,000
3. Malcolm X – JFK, Jackie - $48,169,000
4. Thirteen Days – JFK, RFK, Jackie - $34,592,000
5. Hoffa – RFK - $24,276,000
All-Time Top 5 Movies Featuring Political Assassination or Attempts – Domestic Box Office
1. X2 - $214,949,000
2. The Bourne Identity - $121,661,000
3. Enemy of the State - $111,549,000
4. In the Line of Fire - $102,314,000
5. Patriot Games - $83,351,000
6. The Interpreter - $72,708,000
7. JFK - $70,405,000
8. Sahara - $68,671,000
9. Manchurian Candidate - $65,955,000
10. Red Eye - $57,891,000
The Fountain (Warner Bros.) is a noble disaster. I saw this picture and attended the junket last weekend, and, although I admire the risks taken by Darren Aronofsky, Hugh Jackman and Rachel Weisz, it is a tough movie to figure out.
Warner Bros. greenlighted this project with a $90 million budget, but Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett were set to star. After that deal fell apart, Jackman and Weisz stepped in, and Aronofsky was forced to get creative with half of the original budget. Jackman is on quite a roll with X2, The Prestige, Flushed Away and Happy Feet all hitting big this year, and Weisz is coming off an Oscar win for The Constant Gardener ($33 million domestic), but this is a director who has never found any real commercial success. His debut Pi scored just $3 million and the groundbreaking Requiem For A Dream did only slightly better at $3.6 million.
Like Aronofsky's previous film, Requiem For A Dream, a joint might bring a higher level of appreciation. Because most audiences are stone cold sober, this one has very little chance for success.
Film junkies will eat The Fountain up, but the general public will steer clear. The Fountain will do a five-day of $2-$5 million and a three-day of $1-$3 million.
The Fountain By The Numbers
Top 5 Hugh Jackman Films - Domestic Box Office
1. X-Men: The Last Stand - $234,362,000
2. X2: X-Men United - $214,949,000
3. X-Men - $157,299,000
4. Van Helsing - $120,177,000
5. Swordfish - $69,772,000
Top 5 Rachel Weisz Films – Domestic Box Office
1. The Mummy Returns - $202,019,000
2. The Mummy -$155,385,000
3. Constantine - $75,976,000
4. Runaway Jury - $49,443,000
5. About A Boy - $41,385,000
Top 5 Ellen Burstyn Films – Domestic Box Office
1. The Exorcist - $193,000,000
2. Red Dragon - $93,149,000
3. Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood - $69,599,000
4. When A Man Loves A Woman - $50,021,000
5. Dying Young - $33,669,000
All-Time Top 10 Time Travel Movies – Domestic Box Office
1. Back To the Future - $210,609,000
2. Planet of the Apes (2001) - $180,011,000
3. Minority Report - $132,072,000
4. Back To the Future II - $118,450,000
5. Back To the Future III - $87,727,000
6. 12 Monkeys - $57,141,000
7. The Time Machine - $56,832,000
8. Kate & Leopold - $47,121,000
9. Frequency - $45,010,000
10. Peggy Sue Got Married - $41,382,000
The weekend is very tough to call. Deja Vu versus Casino Royale is a toss-up for second. On the next tier are Santa Clause 3, Tenacious D, Deck the Halls and Borat. Here are my projections for the five-day (11/22 –11/26) and the three-day (11/24-11/26).
5-DAY THANKSGIVING WEEKEND PROJECTIONS
1. Happy Feet - $39 million
2. Deja Vu - $32 million
3. Casino Royale - $30 million
4. Santa Clause 3 - $15 million
5. Tenacious D in: Pick of Destiny - $12 million
6. Deck the Halls - $11.5 million
7. Borat - $11 million
8. Bobby - $10 million
*The Fountain - $4.5 million
*For Your Consideration – 623 screens - $5,300 per - $3.3 million
3-DAY THANKSGIVING WEEKEND PROJECTIONS
1. Happy Feet - $31 million
2. Deja Vu - $24 million
3. Casino Royale - $22 million
4. Santa Clause 3 - $11 million
5. Tenacious D in: Pick of Destiny - $10 million
6. Deck the Halls - $9 million
7. Borat - $8.5
8. Bobby - $8 million
*The Fountain - $3
*For Your Consideration – 623 screens - $3,600 per - $2.2 million