Weekend Forecast for October 20-22 2006
By Reagen Sulewski
October 20, 2006
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Eastwood's film is based on the Battle of Iwo Jima in World War II, and more specifically, the famous photo of the flag raising on the island, the first Japanese territory to fall to enemy hands. It follows the lives of the surviving three men who raised it as they return to America and deal with their fame (in some cases, unwanted) as a result of the photo.
World War II dramas can be hit and miss based on their pedigrees, but Eastwood's name as a director pushes this one front and center. The cast is solid if unspectacular, with Ryan Phillippe as one of the soldiers providing the biggest draw (also, Paul Walker gets his best ever shot at appearing in an Oscar-nominated film). In the case of this film, though, it's the famous story that's going to pull people in, in a similar fashion to another World War II epic, Saving Private Ryan (even if that was largely fictionalized past the opening).
It's an odd film in some ways, as it's less about the battle than the war at home, and how the photo and the soldiers were used to sell the war to a public that had seen little progress in the War in the Pacific to that point. Reviews of the film are politely positive, with many of the positive reviews saying that it's an ambitious movie about the nature of heroism that hits most, but not all of its marks. Negative reviews call it a boring history lesson. DreamWorks is testing the waters slowly with Flags of Our Fathers, releasing it this weekend in just over 1,800 theaters. However, with the publicity for the film in full steam, this should perform better than this count might indicate. Look for a weekend-topping figure of about $17 million.
Another potential Oscar candidate is Christopher Nolan's The Prestige, returning to the thriller genre after successfully relaunching the Batman franchise last summer. The year's second film with an emphasis on magic, Nolan reunites with Batman's Christian Bale and Michael Caine and adds Hugh Jackman and Scarlett Johansson for a strong cast.
Jackman and Bale play rival magicians in early 20th century London. When Bale performs a truly mystifying and seemingly impossible trick, it becomes Jackman's obsession to figure it out, threatening to destroy the lives of everyone around him. As one would expect with a magic-themed film, the plot is a twisty-turny affair, and should be quite compelling for thrill seeking audiences.
Nolan has proved himself to be a top flight director, and Jackman's developed quite a bit of fame from the X-Men movies. However, a release in a modest 2,281 screens will keep a bit of a damper on the initial box office prospects of this film. Look for it to come in with about $14 million.
The widest release of the week belongs to Flicka, a remake of the 1943 film My Friend Flicka. It stars Alison Lohman as a wild-spirited girl who adopts a similarly wild horse in order to prove to her father (played by country singer Tim McGraw) that she's capable of running her own life and the family ranch. Tender bonding (not that kind, sickos) between a girl and her horse ensues.
Flicka has had a fair amount of its thunder stolen by last fall's Dreamer, which had the benefit of a more solid cast and not coming from quite so dated a source. However, there's probably room enough for two girl-and-her-horse stories in one year's span and this one should come in with a modest $6 million weekend.
One of the stranger looking films of the year is Sofia Coppola's Marie Antoinette. Based on the life of the Austrian princess who married into the French Royal Family, Coppola's film is a punk-rock/new wave influenced anachronistic take on French court life.
Kirsten Dunst stars in the titular role, which looks to rehabilitate Antoinette's reputation as a spoiled member of the aristocracy that had no understanding of the people. Instead it portrays her as a victim of her time and an unfortunate flashpoint for a rebellious populace.
The film premiered at Cannes to mixed reception, with some praising the film's bold styling, with others proclaiming it a vapid mess. It's not going to be an easy sell no matter what (especially with one of the worst trailers for a non-action movie ever made). However, Coppola's earned a lot of points with her first two directorial efforts, The Virgin Suicides and Lost in Translation, so this should at least bring in the curious. Opening on approximately 800 screens, it should open to about $5 million.
The Grudge 2 picks up a couple of screens from last weekend, but really, this film is dead in the water after its $20 million opening. It started to fall even within the weekend, with its Sunday already one third of its Friday total. Mid-week figures already have it in third behind Man of the Year, so I think we could be looking at an epic second weekend drop to something in the neighborhood of $6-7 million.
This leaves room for The Departed to stick around in the top realms of the box office, perhaps even in contention for top spot if Flags of Our Fathers falters. It held onto a strong 70% of its first weekend box office and has been number one throughout the week. It should have a third weekend of approximately $14 million, pushing its total to around $80 million after this weekend.
Man of the Year will have to fight off a resilient Open Season to hold onto its spot in the box office, though the animated family film should pass it. It dropped a mere 30% in its third weekend, while Man of the Year debuted to mediocre reviews and has no built in audience to fall back on. Open Season should pull in another $8 million, moving ahead of Robin Williams' weak political satire, which will come in with around $6 million.