Monday Morning Quarterback Part Three
By BOP Staff
July 12, 2006
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Superman Returns absorbed a body blow, falling 58% to $21.9 million. Its 12-day total of $141.7 million indicates a sub-$200 million performance. How surprised are you by its numbers so far?
Joel Corcoran: Honestly, I'm disappointed but not very surprised. I would like this film to do better, but the marketing behind it was awful.
Reagen Sulewski: It's about $60 to $70 million short of where I would have thought it would be.
David Mumpower: In another day, it will finally make what Reagen had predicted it make in his forecast! Seriously, it's hard to sugar coat this. The movie has underachieved and is going to be a loss for Warner Bros. The fact that it was swallowed whole by Pirates is just the final indignity.
Kim Hollis: Superman is a lame character and most people know it. This performance just bears that fact out.
Reagen Sulewski: It's rare to see the pecking order so clearly established among superheros.
David Mumpower: Nothing says action and suspense like virtual invulnerability!
Kim Hollis: I'm yawning just thinking about it.
Joel Corcoran: But there's kryptonite! KRYPTONITE!
Tim Briody: Reagen's forecast called him "The Man Who Couldn't Possibly Lose." That's not exciting in the least, even if they attempted to give him character flaws.
Kim Hollis: "Oh, I'm so miserable. I can do anything, no one can destroy me, and I'm a boy scout to boot. What a horrible existence I lead."
David Mumpower: It's like when rock stars and pro athletes talk about how hard their lives are.
It could work maybe if it was Superman vs. Jack Sparrow
Kim Hollis: Does Superman's performance justify a sequel?
David Mumpower: From a quality perspective, there is an argument to be made. WB was willing to take some lumps by trusting Bryan Singer to tell a good story. He has done that. From a financial perspective, the answer is an empathic "HELL NO!"
Joel Corcoran: If someone could come up with an interesting Superman story, then I think a sequel is definitely worthwhile. We mentioned the "Death of Superman" storyline last week (and I apologize for any spoilers inherent in that vaguely descriptive remark), but there is also the "World's Finest" concept of a movie with both Superman and Batman hanging out there in development hell.
Reagen Sulewski: There's enough asterisks in the release that you can see someone upstairs in Warner Bros justifying it. They're unlikely to release their latest franchise after just one attempt.
David Mumpower: I think World's Finest would be a bad financial decision from the perspective that a Batman movie would make as much on its own.
Joel Corcoran: You're probably right, David.
Tim Briody: If done correctly, could Wolverine be a franchise on his own? Because we're pretty much run the course on A-list comic book characters once again.
Kim Hollis: Well, they're going to try. Magneto, too.
David Mumpower: I think Wonder Woman will be a huge hit. She's iconic enough to matter. There are also the Avengers.
Reagen Sulewski: Someone's going to try a Flash movie sometime soon, I suspect.
Kim Hollis: And of course there's Watchmen, but it really probably only has the same sort of appeal that V for Vendetta did.
David Mumpower: The Magneto comment leads to an interesting thought. Wouldn't a Lex Luthor movie be more interesting than a Superman sequel?
Joel Corcoran: Wonder Woman could be a great movie. Another interesting option would be an animated movie about the Justice League of America.
Bosses from hell=Gold
Kim Hollis: The Devil Wears Prada fell 43% to $15.6 million. Its total already stands at $63.7 million. Are we ready to declare this the biggest surprise hit of the summer, and do you think it will reach $100 million?
David Mumpower: Either The Break-Up or this is the leader in the clubhouse thus far and I do think Prada is slightly more unexpected. The $100 million is a coin flip right now. I'm inclined to say no, but I can't rule it out.
Reagen Sulewski: Prada has to be considered the most surprising over The Break Up. Vince Vaughn has had a hit-per-summer recently.
Tim Briody: It currently holds the title of biggest surprise, and I believe it should eke over $100 million.
Joel Corcoran: I'm leaning toward Prada surpassing the $100 million mark. I think this movie is different enough from the rest of the summer fare that it's going to break that mark, though not by much.