Wednesday Update, June 29, 2006
By Reagen Sulewski
June 29, 2006
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The approximately $200 million-budgeted film opened on Wednesday with an icy $21.0 million, a figure that puts it well behind the pace of some of the recent Marvel comic book adaptations, and well back of the barely concealed expectations of Warner Bros. Compare this to the $40 million Wednesday bow of Spider-Man 2 two years ago in the same weekend slot, or this year's own X-Men: The Last Stand, which posted a $45 million opening day on its way to a $102.7 million weekend total. After this and the under-performing Batman Begins launch last year, it's suddenly DC that can't shoot straight.
This figure is almost identical to the opening day of last year's July 4th headliner, War of the Worlds, which parlayed that opening day into a $64.8 million opening weekend. It's about the same ratio that Batman Begins was able to produce from its opening day, moving from a $15 million Wednesday to a $48 million weekend (though legs eventually took it above $200 million total, salvaging it as a success).
The odd nature of the holiday weekend this year (with Canada Day falling on a Saturday, and July 4th falling mid-week) could potentially lead to some strange results. Major holiday weekends tend to have pretty flat behavior across them, however, so expect it to earn another $10 million Thursday, with approximately $70 million coming on the weekend proper, for a five-day total of $100 million.