Monday Morning Quarterback Part Two
By BOP Staff
June 29, 2006
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Nacho Libre earned only $12.1 million this weekend, down 57% from last weekend's $28.3 million. What do you think of its running total of $52.7 million?
David Mumpower: The film is about where I expected it to be after ten days, but the estimated decline for this weekend is alarming. There does appear to have been a fanboy rush last Friday. It inflated expectations beyond what was reasonable.
Reagen Sulewski: I suspect Jack Black's cocaine-fuelled celebrations are a bit toned down this week.
Kim Hollis: Given how much of a love-it-or-hate-it project it seemed to be, I think the running total so far is terrific. I do think the drop this weekend is cause for concern, but it should turn around in subsequent weeks.
Reagen Sulewski: It's probably worth pointing out that it's more than Napoleon Dynamite earned in its entire run, so Jared Hess probably still feels pretty good.
David Mumpower: Do you read anything into this about word-of-mouth, Kim? Or do you feel this is simply a correction after it overachieved last weekend?
Kim Hollis: I really think there was a rush to see the film from both Jack Black fans and people who knew Nacho Libre was from the "makers of Napoleon Dynamite," which was similarly love-it-or-hate-it. I credit the drop primarily to correction.
Tim Briody: Vote For Pedro shirts notwithstanding, I don't see how much Napoleon Dynamite would have affected Nacho Libre's performance. This was a measuring stick for Jack Black's popularity.
Reagen Sulewski: It's pretty similar to the inexplicable early performance of The Benchwarmers, which also quickly went into the tubes.
Kim Hollis: Had it not been marketed as a film from the Napoleon Dynamite people, I would agree with you, Tim. But since that was a strong focus, I think it was an important factor.
Tim Briody: Yeah, Benchwarmers, starring Napoleon Dynamite himself, definitely benefited from Jon Heder more than the director's film did.
Lucas Black and Bow Wow
Kim Hollis: The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift had an even more precipitous decline than Nacho Libre. Down 62%, its $9.2 million weekend represents a running total of $42.6 million. Isn't this what a Fast and the Furious Film is supposed to open to, not make after ten days?
David Mumpower: Absolutely. I think that what this reflects more than anything else is how completely 2 Fast 2 Furious killed the franchise. They tried everything they could to run away from that film with a clean re-boot, but it didn't matter. People still remembered, bro.
Tim Briody: If for whatever reason there's a fourth entry, then yes.
David Mumpower: The Fast and the Furious: Super-Vin Returns?
Kim Hollis: You know, the fact that Paul Walker isn't in the third installment makes me want to reward them by seeing it.
David Mumpower: If Paul Walker ever stars in a Uwe Boll film, it will create a vortex of suck that might consume our universe.
Reagen Sulewski: I like that they got desperate and started showing the Vin Diesel cameo in the commericals.
Tim Briody: I enjoyed that as well.
Tim Briody: Say this movie was just called Tokyo Drift. Does it even make half of what it's earned so far?
Reagen Sulewski: A fifth might be generous.
David Mumpower: Driven made $32 million back in 2001. That inflation adjusts to right at $37 million in current dollars. I think Tokyo Drift could easily make that without the franchise tag. In point of fact, I think that if Universal does it all over again, they might market even further away from The Fast and the Furious tag.
Tim Briody: "Now with two Vin Diesel cameos!"
Reagen Sulewski: Even if 2 Fast hadn't sucked, I think a third entry would have suffered simply from franchise fatigue. There's only so much an audience can take of really fast cars and bad acting.
Keanu and Sandra are soooooo 1994
Kim Hollis: Unlike the films that killed it last weekend, The Lake House held up well with $8.3 million, giving it $29.2 million total. This number is still very disappointing given the star power, is it not?
Reagen Sulewski: They should have had the house not able to drop below 55 degrees or it'd blow up.
David Mumpower: What's particularly strange is that Keanu Reeves has one of the best track records in the industry. He's very reliable as a draw. Bullock's star has faded, particularly after the Miss Congeniality 2 disaster. I would have figured the return of the It Onscreen Couple of 1994 would have mattered, though. I guess it's just been too long.
Kim Hollis: Yeah, I was never really feeling it for their star power. Speed was a long time ago. But I did think the trailer was the kind of thing that would suck a lot of people in and familiar faces should have helped rather than hurt.
Reagen Sulewski: There was the Sweet November debacle, of course. In romantic roles, he's kryptonite for guys.
David Mumpower: A Walk in the Clouds was a decent-sized hit back in the day, but I guess it is telling that I have to go back 11 years to find a romantic comedy success story for him.
Tim Briody: I found the commercials rather vague, and perhaps didn't play up the reteaming of Bullock and Keanu enough. I suppose they were hoping for word-of-mouth ala The Notebook.
David Mumpower: The only good news I have in that vein is that The Notebook was only at $31.7 million after ten days before hanging in for $81 million. The Lake House is only about $2.5 million behind that pace, so it could still find some theatrical life. But I doubt it.
Tim Briody: Yup, not feeling it.
Reagen Sulewski: There were a lot of other factors that arose out of The Notebook. McAdams = new hotness, Bullock = old 'n busted.
What's worse than one poorly animated, out-of-date cartoon character? Two of them!
Kim Hollis: The worst of last weekend's openers is the best in terms of holdover, as Garfield: A Tail of Two Kitties declines only 35% to $4.8 million. $16.4 million after ten days is probably not the result Fox was hoping for, though, was it?
David Mumpower: Garfield: A Tale of Box Office Kitty Litter is the more appropriate title. This was obviously a mistake. Fox wanted the DVD revenue so much that it made them blind to reason.
Tim Briody: The first Garfield movie had $42.3 million in the kitty (man, I crack myself up) after two weekends. So, clearly, no.
Reagen Sulewski: Poor Bill Murray.
David Mumpower: Nobody can afford to buy lasagna with this sort of gross. And it's so stunning that Breckin Meyer movie would fail.
Kim Hollis: It's as Hamann said in his wrap. Garfield 2 was little more than a giant ad for the (almost certainly) soon-to-be-released DVD.
Reagen Sulewski: They really need to take the hint from all those straight-to-video sequels Disney craps out on schedule.