Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
March 4, 2006
BoxOfficeProphets.com
16 Blocks
The Bruce Willis/Mos Def actioner leads the pack with $3.8 million Friday. To say this is underwhelming is a little bit of an understatement. Things won't improve all that much as Academy Awards Sunday is a notoriously bad day for box office. That would bring what would probably be a decent weekend multiplier down to somewhere around a 2.8, giving 16 Blocks a weekend total of $10.6 million.
Ultraviolet
Sporting an awesome 4% Fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes, the ultraviolent Ultraviolet opened to $3.4 million. Look for the Milla Jovovich film to fall hard and fast, with a weekend multiplier of 2.6, which would give Ultraviolet $8.8 million for the weekend.
Dave Chappelle's Block Party
The concert film some were expecting to break out huge did not do so, earning $2.7 million Friday on 1,200 screens. The last big performance film, 2000's The Original Kings of Comedy, managed a 2.74 multiplier, and I wouldn't be surprised with something similar here. Give it a weekend total of $7.4 million.
Aquamarine
The weekend's last opener, the tween-targeted Aquamarine, took in $2 million Friday. Aquamarine should have the best multiplier of the weekend among the four new releases, giving it a weekend tally of $6.8 million.
Notable Holdovers
Madea's Family Reunion drops an unsurprising 65.5% from last Friday, but should actually still come out on top for the weekend. Diary of a Mad Black Woman dropped 55.5% in its second frame, so this is a textbook example of the sequel effect. Figure a weekend total of about $11.6 million.