Monday Morning Quarterback Part Two
By BOP Staff
January 24, 2006
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Glory Road, last week's number one film by a hair, also did well in its second frame, falling only 33%. It has a ten-day total of $28.1 million. Is this performance better or worse than you expected?
Reagen Sulewski: This is right on line with what I expected from Glory Road. The "heartwarminging true sports story with a fiery coach" is something that's worked well since Hoosiers and before that.
Kim Hollis: It has held up better than Coach Carter, though, which is perhaps a bit surprising given the lack of a big star in Glory Road. Bruckheimer can just keep cranking these things out, though. They're like a license to print money.
David Mumpower: If anything, this is a worse performance than I was expecting. It's such a fantastic story that is so important to the billion dollar industry that is college basketball. Ever since the project was originally announced and Ben Affleck was attached, I expected big things. Its ordinary performance disappoints me, but the holdover indicates it's being well received.
Joel Corcoran: I was personally hoping for a better performance from Glory Road, but I can't really see why it didn't do better at the box office.
Reagen Sulewski: I would say largely because Josh Lucas is still very much a "that guy".
David Mumpower: What's scary is that Glory Road is going to beat his last film, Stealth. I would wager he never would have predicted that a year ago.
Tim Briody: I just feel the need to mention that my father, a history teacher, likes to refer to the championship game depicted in the movie as "the Brown vs. Board of Education of college basketball."
Were audiences good to Mama?
Kim Hollis: Continuing the theme of solid holdovers, Last Holiday fell 29%. It has earned $26.4 million in its first ten days of box office. Isn't it uncanny how similarly last weekend's three openers have performed this far?
David Mumpower: Queen Latifah's appeal with mainstream audiences confounds me.
Kim Hollis: And considering the rather dismal reviews for Last Holiday, I'm more than a little surprised it's held up this well in week two. The opening I can buy, but the holdover is stunning.
Don't the Oscars feel like a formality at this point?
Kim Hollis: Brokeback Mountain increased 35% from last weekend on the strength of its Golden Globe win for Best Picture. The $7.8 million weekend brings its total to $42.1 million. Be honest, this is much more box office than you ever anticipated for this film, is it not?
Reagen Sulewski: By a factor of ten.
Joel Corcoran: I agree with Reagen. I'm simply astounded...more so by the fact that all my friends and family in Peoria are going to see this movie.
David Mumpower: I was thinking $15 million was a best case scenario even after the awards started rolling in.
Tim Briody: Agreed...though now I consider it a legit contender for $100 million since it's going to rake in several Oscar nominations, and more than a few wins...which is equally stunning when you think about it.
David Mumpower: People should be forced to watch the movie before they get to vote against gay marriage. That's all the soapboxing I will do on the subject.
Joel Corcoran: I think that everyone in the gay community should be forced to watch the movie, too, though. And that's all the soapboxing that I'll do.
Reagen Sulewski: An interesting factor in the film's acceptance to me is that there really are only about two scenes that would be difficult to take for most audiences uncomfortable with the subject matter. It's not nearly as controversial as people really think it to be.
The power of the Golden Globes is beyond BOP's understanding.
Kim Hollis: Brokeback Mountain wasn't the only film to receive a significant boost after the Golden Globes. Walk the Line had a 77% spike following its key wins for Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Picture, all in the Musical or Comedy category. Capote and Transamerica also saw box office increases in light of their wins. Is this a one-year fluke or does the Golden Globe always carry this type of cachet?
Joel Corcoran: I've never heard of the Golden Globes having this kind of cachet at all.
David Mumpower: It's definitely a 2006 phenomenon in its degree of enhancement. Whether this becomes the norm from now is the subject for speculation.
Kim Hollis: I actually wonder if it's just a case of audiences not really hearing much buzz for awards-type films and waiting for a big ceremony like this one to give them some indication of what 2005 films were, you know, good.
Tim Briody: It depends on which movies are winning and where they are in terms of release.
Joel Corcoran: Is it simply that the Golden Globes reached some sort of critical mass with America? Or is it just a fluke? I don't really know, personally.
Tim Briody: Walk The Line may have increased tremendously, but it had already run its course by the time the Golden Globes were handed out.
Reagen Sulewski: In this case, the films affected were uniquely positioned to take advantage since with the exception of Walk the Line, none had really had their day in the sun yet.
Tim Briody: Whereas Brokeback Mountain was still platforming, and the studio took advantage of its awards to nearly double its screen count.
David Mumpower: I think that in a lot of cases, it's that people want to see all of the Academy Awards nominees. With the knowledge that the big winners at the Golden Globes are the presumptive favorites, people are more encouraged to make the effort.
At last, causality!
Reagen Sulewski: Walk the Line was the only nominee in either Golden Globe Best Picture category that had earned more than $34 million prior to the awards. That's stunning in a way.
Tim Briody: And the Hollywood Foreign Press generally likes to reward box office, even if the movie is questionable. I was mildly surprised that Wedding Crashers or 40 Year-Old Virgin didn't get nominated in the comedy category.
David Mumpower: I can't believe we're discussing awards consideration for raucous sex comedies. That says it all about 2005's overall quality.
Tim Briody: They nominated There's Something About Mary, so there is a precedent.
Reagen Sulewski: I would lay money on 40 Year-Old Virgin getting a screenplay nomination at this point.
David Mumpower: That's so strange considering that the funniest scene in the film was entirely unscripted.
Reagen Sulewski: It's Steve Carell's world, we just live in it.
David Mumpower: I thought it was Steve Carell's wife's world.