Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
May 7, 2005
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kingdom of Heaven
Ridley Scott's historical epic opened with $7.3 million Friday, a not good number for this time of year. It's even worse than the $16.9 million Troy earned last year. That film (which also starred Orlando Bloom) had a 2.7 internal multiplier over its opening weekend, which is as good as any a number to use for Kingdom of Heaven. That would give it an underwhelming $19.7 million take.
House of Wax
With a $5 million Friday, House of Wax looks like a winner compared to the first day take of Kingdom of Heaven. Behold the power of Paris Hilton dying violently. The Amityville Horror had a mere 2.58 internal multiplier a few weeks ago, so somewhere in the vicinity of a 2.6 sounds right for House of Wax. That will give it $13 million for the weekend.
Crash
$2.9 million is actually a quite decent start for Crash, given its ensemble cast with few big names and unusual subject matter. The Lions Gate film is on under 2,000 screens, though it can certainly build from here with positive word-of-mouth. We'll give it a 3.1 multiplier for the weekend, placing it at $9 million.
Notable Holdovers
Very bad news awaits both holdovers this weekend. With its fanbase likely turning out on opening weekend, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy crumbles 64.5%. It may be able to get under 60% for the overall weekend and reduce the bleeding from there, but that's not very good news for the Douglas Adams adaptation.
Already a bomb, XXX: State of the Union falls another 59.1%. At least Ice Cube has his millions from Are We There Yet? to fall back on.