Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
March 5, 2005
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The Pacifier
With $8.8 million Friday, The Pacifier capitalizes on a dry spot in theaters to clean up and give Vin Diesel a badly needed hit. Given its family-friendly nature, I figure it will have a slightly above average internal multiplier. We'll give it a 3.1, which is good for an estimated $27.3 million weekend.
Be Cool
The Elmore Leonard adaptation pulled in $7.6 million Friday, a decent start but probably not enough to jump start John Travolta Comeback #732. Being upset by The Pacifier doesn't help either. Be Cool probably benefited from a bit an of opening night rush, so we'll give the Get Shorty sequel a 2.8 internal multiplier, which gives it a $21.2 million weekend.
The Jacket
A Friday take of $1 million is about as good of a first day you can hope for when your movie is a psychological thriller on 1,331 screens with virtually zero marketing. Look for a weekend take of $2.7 million for The Jacket.
Notable Holdovers
Diary of a Mad Black Woman drops 55.5% from last Friday, a number to be expected with such a niche film. It should be able to get its overall weekend decline under the 50% mark, but not by much.
After taking home four Oscars (all in the categories that matter; yes I'm looking at you, The Aviator) Million Dollar Baby jumps 20% from last Friday. The Best Picture winner should see an overall weekend uptick in the 30% range.