Friday Box Office Analysis
By Kim Hollis
May 19, 2018
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Yes, Deadpool 2 has unseated Avengers: Infinity War as the top movie at the box office. Along the way, it will break the original record for top-opening R-rated film. It will also be a boon for 20th Century Fox, which hasn't had a lot of luck over the past several years with regard to big box office performers. It's all about that merc with a mouth until... next week, when Disney will be back in charge as Solo: A Star Wars Story invades theaters.
Deadpool 2 debuted yesterday with $53.3 million, which includes $18.6 million in Thursday night previews. That means that the "true" Friday total was $34.7 million. How does that compare to the original Deadpool? Well, that film started with $47.3 million, including $12.7 million from its Thursday previews. It's important to remember that there's a big difference between a February debut and a May debut, and also between a first film and its sequel. Deadpool 2 should be more front-loaded on Friday due to both May having more people available to see the film on Friday and more fans excited to see it. I'm going to predict an opening weekend of $135 million, which is just a slight increase over the original, but just fine considering that people seemed somewhat weary of the character for some reason.
That means Avengers: Infinity War will drop to second place, though it held up fairly well yesterday with $7.2 million and a 54 percent decline. I've talked to a LOT of people who have been to see it multiple times, so apparently its repeat viewing value is strong. Look for about $31 million this weekend, as the latest in the Avengers saga should be *very* close to the $600 million mark by the end of the weekend. Its worldwide total will be approaching $2 billion soon. Good lord.
In a counter-programming effort that worked decently well, Book Club, a movie aimed at senior citizens (that claims it tells the story of a book club full of 60-something women - despite the fact that only one of the women is actually in her 60s) earned a pretty good $4.7 million. Considering its budget was only $10 million, Paramount has to be pleased with this total. It will wind up with about $14 million for the weekend and should eventually turn a tidy little profit. Reviews aren't quite fresh, but it hit the spot for the target audience as the Cinemascore was an A-.
One other movie debuted this weekend, though you probably won't have heard of it. It the grand tradition of Beverly Hills Chihuahua comes Show Dogs, from hack director extraordinaire Raja Gosnell. In case you're wondering, he's the guy responsible for the aforementioned Beverly Hills Chihuahua (or BHC, as the cool kids call it), The Smurfs (and its sequel), and Big Momma's House. Well, no one noticed Show Dogs, as it earned just $1.4 million. We'll call it $5.6 million for the weekend and pretend it never happened.
Finally, just because it's awesome, we should mention that RBG, the documentary about Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, earned $330,000 from 375 venues yesterday. It might just get enough to hit the top ten.