They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
90th Oscar Nods Stun Three Billboards
By J. Don Birnam
January 23, 2018
BoxOfficeProphets.com

No, sorry, we cannot smile.
The 90th Academy Award nominations were announced this morning and if there is something you can always count on is that there will be surprises that no one foresees. This time around, the stunner was in nothing less than the Best Picture race, were purported frontrunner Three Billboards took a huge hit when its director's name was omitted from the lineup by announcers Tiffany Haddish and Andy Serkis, as I had felt could happen. While there is precedent for a movie winning it all after having its director snubbed (Argo did it last), this certainly has to be making the people behind the race/social class movie nervous. With the move, the Oscars proved once again that the moment you think you know something, they will come out and take it out from under you. And, a corollary to that is that this prognosticator in particular will be proven wrong immediately the moment he declares he is certain about something!!

Unlike last year, when I complained a little about their insularity, this field really is a diverse field of candidates. I don't mean just in the sense of racial or gender diversity. They are honoring different stories. There is a gay love story, there is a teen full of angst, there's a drama about racial and social tensions, there are two war epics and one about a powerful woman at the head of a newspaper in a historical time, there's a suspense/thriller about racial oppression, there's a costume drama. Can you ask for more?

Benefiting from Three Billboards' apparent stumble was Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water, which led with 13 nominations, scoring everywhere it was eligible for except Best Visual Effects. Like Billboards, the movie got three acting Oscar nominations. Both movies scored for their lead actresses, while Billboards got two supporting actor nods (Rockwell and Harrelson) and Shape got a notice for Octavia Spencer as did Richard Jenkins. Shape landed nods for its director, as well as for Screenwriting (Original), Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Score, and both Sound categories. It is arguably at the very least tied for Best Picture at the moment.

Still, Three Billboards did not have a shabby showing. It still scored important editing and screenplay nominations, as well as Score, for a total of seven nods. In second place was actually Dunkirk, which did manage a Best Director nod for Chris Nolan (his first) as well as Best Picture, Editing, Score, Cinematography, Production Design and two sound categories. Although this is an impressive tally, no acting nod and no screenplay nod makes it a very tough sell. Expect it to win a couple of technical Oscars, but not much more. The race is clearly between Shape and Billboards.

The directing category's surprise was the inclusion of Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread. Indeed, that movie did a lot better than anyone expect, landing Picture, Director, Actor (Day Lewis), Costumes, Score, and Supporting Actress nods (Leslie Manville). I expected it to walk away almost empty-handed, but this is a pretty good haul. It remains to be seen whether it can collect on anything, of course.

Speaking of directing, the other nominees went as expected, with Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele become only the fifth nominee of their gender or race as the case may be, for Lady Bird and Get Out. Those movies also got screenplay and Best Picture nods, as well as lead acting nods for Saoirse Ronan and Daniel Kaluuya, also as expected.

Really Best Picture was where some of the surprises lay. We have talked about Phantom Thread, which no one in their right mind saw coming. I did have a gut feeling at the last minute that Darkest Hour would make it in, so I'm giving myself some credit for that. The Post also survived, as I thought, but I was wrong about the popularity of I, Tonya, while being correct about the fact that The Big Sick was done for.

There were other little surprises and historical tidbits. These include:

- The two sound categories matched for the first time ever, rewarding Baby Driver, Blade Runner Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, and Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Look to the Academy to try to reward the Best Picture contenders here, even if arguably the Baby Driver sound is the best of the year.

- Mudbound's Rachel Morrison became the first ever female nominee for Best Cinematography. That is crazy considering it's been 89 years.

- James Franco missed out for The Disaster Artist, with his slot going to Denzel Washington instead. Was it the harassment claims? Denzel's popularity? The subject matter of his film? We will never know, but speculation will be endless.

- Mary J. Blige got a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Mudbound, as well as a Best Original Song for the film, the first time that has ever happened in the same year. It also marks Netflix's first serious foray into the Awards, getting four nominations for that Sundance film.

- Meryl Streep held off contenders to round out the expected five Best Actress nominees. This is her 22nd nomination, extending her record. It is the first time since 2003 since she stars in a Best Picture nominee, and the first time since 1985 since she is nominated for a Best Picture nominee.

So how did I do? Last year I had a pretty good year with over 80% correct in nominations (before totally screwing up the final win predictions). I'm hoping for the reverse this year. Although I did not do too poorly, I vastly underestimated Phantom Thread, and nailed fewer categories 5/5. My total was 73% (81/111), down from over 80% from last year.

And what of early gut predictions? My gut last year was right about Moonlight's two Oscar wins other than Best Picture, and about all acting categories. I also called La La Land's six Oscar wins correctly, but overestimated it and gave it eleven, not realizing the backlash that would build against the movie. It just goes to show that even now, it is still too early.

So, with all that said, my gut right now is that Shape of Water wins Picture (but it's too close to call), Director, and a couple of technical Oscars at the very least, like Production Design or Cinematography and Score. Billboards likely wins Actress and a Supporting Actor prize. Get Out and Lady Bird will battle hard for Original Screenplay. I take Gerwig takes it. Oldman will win Actor, and Janney will hold off Metcalf, unless they reward Lady Bird in that category and give Peele screenplay. Animated is Coco, Foreign is between Chile and Sweden, and Documentary is Faces Places, I think. The sound categories probably go to Dunkirk, with Blade Runner sticking to VFX. Costumes could go to Phantom Thread.

We will have, of course, much more coverage as the season draws to a close. The next page has all the nominees.

Full list of nominees:

Best Picture
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Director
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)

Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet (CMBYN)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel)

Best Actress
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Meryl Streep (The Post)

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

Best Supporting Actress
Mary J Blige (Mudbound)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Leslie Manville (Phantom Thread)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Best Adapted Screenplay
CMBYN
Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound

Best Original Screenplay
Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
Shape of Water
Three Billboards

Best Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Shape of Water

Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
Shape of Water

Costumes
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars The Last Jedi

Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars The Last Jedi

Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians
Kong Skull Island
Star Wars the Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Animated Short Film
Deer Basketball
Garden Party
Luke
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes

Best Live Action Short Film
DeKalb Elementary
The 11 O’Clock
My Nephew Element
The Silent Child
All Of Us

Best Original Score
Dunkirk
Phantom
Shape of Water
Star Wars
Three Billboards

Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder

Best Foreign Language Film
Fantastic Woman
Insult
Loveless
Body & Soul
Square

Best Documentary Short
Edith & Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin
Knife Skills
Traffic Stops

Best Documentary Feature
Abacus
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

Original Song
Mighty River (Mudbound)
Mystery of Love (Call Me by Your Name)
Remember Me (Coco)
Stand Up for Something (Marshall)
This is Me (Greatest Showman)

Best Animated Feature Film
Boss Baby
Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent