Weekend Wrap Up
by Tim Briody
December 17, 2017
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Star Wars: The Last Jedi brings us the second of the three sequels to the original trilogy (and marks the halfway point of the return of the franchise to theaters, with the Han Solo spinoff set for next year, Episode IX in 2019 and a third standalone film in 2020), and follows the film that rewrote the box office history books two years ago. Nobody was expecting a repeat performance here; we’ve learned countless times from sequels and reboots that the second time around just isn’t as special. For whatever reason, when it comes to the middle part of a defined trilogy, people can wait for the second one, but it primes them for the third. We’ll have to wait another two years to see if that again holds true, but for now, let’s actually report on some good news at the box office, which we haven’t had much of this year.
As we reported yesterday, The Last Jedi earned $104.8 million on Friday, with $45 million of that earned on Thursday night. The Force Awakens earned $120.5 million on Friday, but there was no cause for alarm. Nobody thought The Last Jedi would equal or better The Force Awakens on that first day. Two years ago, where The Force Awakens was going to end up after that Friday was anybody’s guess. There was no established precedent for what was happening. December box office just doesn’t work that way, it’s a marathon, not a sprint. Here were the numbers for some of the biggest movies of all time, plus some December openings, now with The Force Awakens included:
Iron Man 3 $68.3 million Friday, $15.6 million Thursday, $52.7 million Friday actual, $158.5 million weekend minus Thursday, 3.00 multiplier
Avengers: $80.5 million Friday, $18.7 million Thursday, $61.8 million Friday actual, $188.7 million weekend minus Thursday, 3.05 multiplier
Avengers: Age of Ultron: $84.5 million Friday, $27.6 million Thursday, $65.8 million Friday actual, $163.6 million weekend minus Thursday, 2.48 multiplier
Jurassic World: $82.8 million Friday, $18.5 million Thursday, $64.3 million Friday actual, $190.3 million weekend minus Thursday, 2.96 multiplier
Avatar: $26.7 million Friday, $3.5 million Thursday, $23.2 million Friday actual, $73.5 million weekend minus Thursday, 3.16 multiplier.
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: $37.1 million Friday, $13 million Thursday, $24.1 million Friday actual, $71.6 million weekend minus Thursday, 2.97 multiplier
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2: $91 million Friday, $43.5 million Thursday, $47.5 million Friday actual, $125.6 million weekend minus Thursday, 2.64 multiplier
Star Wars: The Force Awakens: $120.5 million Friday, $57 million Thursday, $63.5 million Friday actual, $190.9 million weekend minus Thursday, 3.00 multiplier
Star Wars: The Last Jedi: $104.8 million Friday, $45 million Thursday, $59.8 million Friday actual, $???.? million weekend minus Thursday, ?.?? multiplier
As you can see, The Force Awakens proved that a movie can open huge in December (before Star Wars happened, December had never even had a $100 million opening, the record was The Hobbit with $84.6 million; The Force Awakens beat that in one day) and still have legs, as it ended up the #1 domestic movie of all-time, by several touchdowns, with $936.6 million.
Now that we’ve established a boundary, we had a better idea of where The Last Jedi was going to end up. Directly following the trajectory of The Force Awakens (using weekend multiplier and adding the Thursday figure back in at the end) would have given The Last Jedi a weekend of $224.4 million. Based on the Friday performance, I would have ticked it down a notch, figuring the ever so slightly lower enthusiasm for this one (which really, if The Force Awakens was a 10, this one was a 9.8 at worst).
The Last Jedi comes in with the second highest opening weekend of all time, with $220 million. Only the fourth film of all time to do that, it’s an amazing total and shows the power of this franchise even after all these years since the original trilogy and the remarkable recovery from the prequels of the early 2000s (which have not held up well at all).
The more interesting story now is how well The Last Jedi peforms over the next few weeks, the best box office period of the year. We all knew The Last Jedi wasn’t going to match the opening weekend of The Force Awakens. But now we get to see where it goes when it rides the holiday box office money train. The Force Awakens opened with 14 days remaining in 2016, and had $651.9 million in the bank by the time we flipped the calendars. Can The Last Jedi make it to, say, $600 million in that same time? That’s what I’m most looking forward to seeing in the next two weeks.
One film was foolish enough to go against Star Wars this weekend, and HIS NAME IS JOHN CENA that film is Ferdinand. The animated entry from 20th Century Fox (why would Disney compete against themselves?) earned $13.3 million for the weekend, which was good for second place. Ordinarily, I’d be making fun of this total, but it’s going to earn much more than that over the next two weekends, so it’s in a good enough place to avoid being completely buried in the Star Wars frenzy. Its biggest competition for family dollars over the holidays looks to be Coco, the Jumanji reboot, and yes, The Last Jedi, but as the most recent animated option, it’ll manage to stay relevant for the next few weeks.
Coco takes third after three weekends at the top, adding another $10 million and bringing it to $150.8 million after four weekends. Still a highly relevant option for families, the interesting story to watch over the holidays is if it can make it to $200 million. Moana had $162.9 million by this same point and finished with $248 million, so it should definitely get there.
Wonder actually takes fourth place, passing Justice League for the weekend, with $5.4 million. The surprise hit of the fall now has $109.2 million after five weekends.
Meanwhile, Justice League loses 800 screens to The Last Jedi and suffers another 57% drop, with $4.1 million and $219.4 million after five weekends. While we knew it was inevitable, the DC superhero mashup was surpassed by The Last Jedi in just one weekend. Ha ha.
Now it’s time for the lightning round as a bunch of older films take up the bottom half and will be swept out by the new Christmas releases. Daddy’s Home 2 earned $3.8 million and inches closer to $100 million with $96.5 million after six weekends. Thor: Ragnarok earns $2.9 million and now has $306.3 million in its seventh weekend. The Disaster Artist proves too inside baseball for most moviegoers as it adds theaters but drops 59% to $2.6 million and now has $12.9 million after two weekends in wide release. Murder on the Orient Express loses a third of its screens and earns $2.4 million, giving it $97.2 million in six weekends (still ahead of Daddy’s Home 2), and Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird rounds out the top ten with $2.1 million, and $25.9 million to date.
The top 12 films earned $270.4 million, a notable increase from last year’s $206.1 when Rogue One opened with a mere $155 million. For reference, two years ago this weekend had a top 12 of $294.8 million.
Next week is Christmas weekend, which features five new wide releases, the first of which arrive Wednesday in the form of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman, followed by Pitch Perfect 3, Father Figures and Downsizing on Friday