Weekend Wrap-Up
Blade Runner Sequel Fades Over Opening Weekend
By John Hamann
October 7, 2017
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The reason for that deflating balloon has to do with the fact that patrons are resisting seeing Blade Runner 2049. The problem is that they were going to have to work through what must be a crunchy movie (I’m probably seeing it as you’re reading this), Blade Runner 2049 is also a dark movie that runs almost three hours long. It’s October, and the moviegoer doesn’t mind thinking. We propelled The Martian and Gravity to about $55 million each over their opening frames, numbers Blade Runner 2049 was hoping for. Unfortunately, those were on the "unreasonably lofty" side of projections. The consensus target was $40-45 million, and let me say that Blade Runner 2049 did not come close to that this weekend.
Other openers also landed in the top three. The kid flick My Little Pony (now I won’t be able to get the TV ad jingle from the '80s/'90s out of my head), did okay, considering I have no idea whether they even sell these things anymore. However, you have to think boys of any age weren’t going to the movies with their sisters this weekend, or will deny it to their friends (nah, we snuck in to It). The other opener is The Mountain Between Us, as Idris Elba is leading another film that is destined to struggle. The want-to-see factor just isn’t there.
When the Thursday preview numbers were counted, Blade Runner 2049 looked like it had tapped into something. Reviews were fantastic, the box office was wide open as American Made had underperformed, and the sequel was buzzing – at least amongst a certain demographic. That demo showed up on Thursday, and the sequel earned $4 million, ahead of expectations, but at the same time on par with Alien: Covenant, an anticipated Ridley Scott franchise returnee. Covenant earned $4.4 million on Thursday, but that was a summer release, allowing more people to get out for a late show on Thursday night. Still, here is a sequel (albeit distant) from a film that opened in 1982, and it still had that kind of preview (before caving over the rest of the weekend and its run).
People were quick to point out that the Blade Runner sequel outperformed Gravity and The Martian at previews, but Gravity came out in 2013, and The Martian was even more of a thinker (or was perceived that way prior to opening) than Gravity or Blade Runner 2049. So, with my typical Monday Morning Quarterback hat on, the preview wasn’t all that grand – especially if the weekend went on to look anything like the opening take of Alien: Covenant ($36.2 million). Blade Runner 2049 was a better film, with a higher want-to-see factor, so it would do better. Right? Right?
Hold on to your origami. The opening day for Blade Runner 2049 landed at $12.7 million – including the $4 million in previews, a number lower than anyone expected. Comparisons to The Martian and Gravity were now moot, and Warner Bros., who spent $150 million on the sequel, was quickly changing the Sunday box office communication strategy from trumpeting the opening weekend, to pumping the idea of legs for a very good film. That’s how quickly these things can change, and how putting too much faith in a Thursday preview number (which was aided by IMAX) can put estimates out of whack.
If any film is going to be front-loaded, it is going to be a Blade Runner sequel, with some portions of the moviegoing community panting for this one. Outside of that core group, though, Blade Runner gets a little softer. This is a standalone movie (not a franchise) that came out in 1982, and even with two re-releases, only grossed $32 million lifetime at the box office. The cast had some draw in Ryan Gosling and Harrison Ford, but Gosling has never opened a film to decent numbers on this own, and Harrison Ford hasn’t successfully opened a film on his own since the 1990s. At least Denis Villeneuve had The Arrival at $24 million and Prisoners at $21 million to his credit. An 89% fresh rating at RottenTomatoes helps, but other than being the sequel to an iconic (but old) film, this could be considered an overlong , brainy sci-fi flick.
On Friday night, I asked a couple of 20-somethings if they were interested in seeing Blade Runner 2049, and both looked at me, screwed up their faces and tried to defend why they weren’t interested. For me, it was telling that the Blade Runner was going to play to a smart, male 35-55 crowd, and unless word-of-mouth gets them there, not many either above or below that age group are going to run out to see this, if they see it in theaters at all. Most of the planet saw the original movie on DVD, anyway.
Weekend estimates for Blade Runner 2049 continued to fall over the remainder of the weekend. After the Saturday figure came in at $11.4 million, things were looking worse than Alien: Covenant, Ridley Scott’s last sci-fi flick that was too expensive ($97 million) and under-performed. Blade Runner 2 lost the battle to Covenant on Friday by $15.3 million to $12.7 million, on Saturday by $12.7 million to Blade Runner’s $11.4 million, and on Sunday by $8.9 million to $7.4 million. That left Blade Runner 2049 feeling like a dying replicant, with a domestic opening weekend of $31.5 million, well back of estimates and Alien: Covenant’s debut of $36.2 million. From all reports, Blade Runner 2 is a much better film than Alien: Covenant, so where the Ridley Scott film failed to hit $100 million domestic, I think Blade Runner 2049 will. We know the reviews were good, and the Cinemascore was, well, okay. The Cinemascore tally put it at an A-, which is the same score the George Lucas Star Wars prequels earned (all of them), but at the same time, it’s the same score that The Matrix received when it came out. I think Blade Runner 2 will pick itself up, dust itself off, and show fabulous legs going forward.
So, what went wrong? Why didn’t Blade Runner 2049, the sequel to a film that is on many of the "best" lists of all time, including Roger Ebert’s list, the IMDb top 250, and Empire’s list, open to more than it did? Warner Bros. took an interesting approach with the marketing, giving very little plot detail away. For most films, one usually knows how they start and end via a 30 second TV ad, with Blade Runner 2049, I’m still trying to figure out who the bad guy is. I say maybe they protected it too much, and they may have relied on "free" advertising too much as well.
It was a busy news week in North America, so news outlets weren’t as interested in giving news articles up for a movie. Our collective hearts and minds were not on the movies this week, they were on what happened in Las Vegas, hurricanes, a tropical storm heading for New Orleans, baseball playoffs, and the start of hockey season, just to name a few. CNN was on more at my place than Netflix, and that’s saying something. While it wasn’t a September 11th kind of box office weekend, I do think it was affected, and it should have been. My heart goes out to all of those that lost loved ones in Vegas this week, but hopefully it serves as a reminder to love everyone that much more.
Finishing second is The Mountain Between Us, starring Idris Elba and Kate Winslet as passengers in a small airplane that have to walk to safety from snowy, dangerous conditions after the plane crashes. It's pretty serious stuff for early October, and the audience gave a collective shrug, giving The Mountain Between Us an opening weekend of $10.1 million. The Mountain cost Fox and partners a slim $35 million to make, so given an overseas-friendly cast and the domestic start, The Mountain may be my favorite to make its money back. Idris Elba needs it since The Dark Tower keeled over a few months back, and he continues to try to find relevance in the North America.
Third is top five stalwart, Stephen King’s It, which has been in cinemas for five weekends. After finishing in a virtual tie with American Made and the Kingsman sequel last weekend, It pulls away again this weekend. The not so happy clown earned another $9.7 million and fell 43% compared to last weekend, bringing that massive domestic total up to $304.9 million. It hit a major milestone on Saturday, reaching $300 million domestic, in only its 30th day of release. That total is joined by an overseas take that will cross the $300 mark within the next couple of days.
Finishing fourth is My Little Pony, which Lionsgate is distributing for a fee. I am not going to tell you that I know much about this toy, just that it has been around forever, and girls (and some adult men) love them. The toy-based flick got started on Friday with $3 million – a decent but not spectacular opening day for a film aimed at young girls (which means Friday night was not the busiest time in its run). Over the weekend, My Little Pony picked up $8.8 million after going out to only 2,528 venues, compared to Blade Runner’s 4,058 venues. Reviews, while slightly rotten, were better than I thought they would be, sitting at 57% fresh at the time of this writing, but with only 30 reviews counted. The more telling number on future success here is the Cinemascore which came in at an A-, the same score as Blade Runner 2049. Budget data seems to be unavailable, but if I had to guess at a budget I would say that I doubt it cost much, maybe $25 million, or the catering bill on the Blade Runner sequel. We will have to wait and see how it does overseas, but Hasbro and company shouldn’t get too bent out of shape on this one.
In other box office news, Kingsman: The Golden Circle is doing the opposite of its original – showing no legs. It earned $8.1 million and fell 52%, after declining 57% last weekend. The $104 million film will likely end up a casualty, as the domestic gross sits at $80 million versus a $104 million budget.
The Tom Cruise flick, American Made, is sixth. After being a part of that number one conversation last weekend, the bottom fell out this time around, with American Made pulling in $8 million and dropping 52% compared to last weekend. So, despite having solid reviews and an upbeat premise, American Made appears to not have the domestic legs Universal was seeking. Still, it shouldn’t hurt too much – the thriller has $30.4 million going domestically and has crossed the $65 million mark overseas.
The LEGO Ninjago Movie is another sequel that is flailing. Ninjago earned $6.8 million and fell 42%. The $70 million flick has $43.8 million on the domestic side and just crossed the $33 million mark overseas.
Limited and platform releases saw mixed results. Victoria and Abdul, with Judy Dench, moved from 77 venues to 732 and audiences followed. Victoria earned $4.1 million and had a decent average of $5,658. The domestic total has hit $6 million, and the overseas total sits at a healthy $25 million. Battle of the Sexes has had a tough time platforming. This weekend, the Steve Carell/Emma Stone tennis movie picked up $2.4 million from 1,822 screens, and saw a 30% decrease in revenue. Gross-to-date stateside has hit $7.7 million.
Overall, the box office top 12 took in a decent, but not spectacular $95.5 million, but close to where we were last year. A year ago, The Girl on the Train debuted and led the box office with just shy of $25 million. Overall, last year’s top 12 found $95.6 million. Next weekend, new releases include The Foreigner, with Jackie Chan and Pierce Brosnan, so if you like your films over-cooked, this is your choice. Other openers include Happy Death Day, and Annapurna releases Dr. Marsten & the Wonder Women, a film I can only wonder about.