They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Toronto International Film Festival Opens
By J. Don Birnam
September 11, 2017
BoxOfficeProphets.com
At TIFF, Oscar contenders and Oscar pretenders alike hope for one additional boost before the almost-forgotten stop at the New York Film Festival and the race into the field of the brutal awards season. Few new movies open these days at TIFF that can make a splash, though last yearLion and Jackie both opened here, the former eventually landing a Best Picture nomination and the latter finding distribution and a couple of nods as well.
In any case, TIFF has become more the point of final launch for films that have already achieved some recognition elsewhere. Movies from earlier in the year like Call Me By Your Name this year, can come back into the conversation. Movies from Cannes that few American audiences have been exposed to can also remind people of their existence here, as Todd Haynes' Wonderstruck or the Cannes Winner The Square will do. TIFF is also a launching pad for the Oscar campaigns of many countries in serious contention for the Best Foreign Language Film prize, and there is no doubt that their People’s Choice Awards is a prestigious harbinger that almost guarantees you a Best Picture nomination, as La La Land and http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=17831Rooom have achieved of recent vintage.
So, let’s explore what I have seen at TIFF so far, its Oscar chances, and beyond. Bother me here: Twitter @jdonbirnam and Instagram @awards_predix
“Borg/McEnroe”: A Worthy Opener But Not an Oscar Player
A year after opening the festival with the lackluster revival The Magnificent Seven, TIFF did somewhat better by showcasing the Swedish tennis drama Borg/McEnroe about the 1980 Wimbledon final between the two outsized personalities. Featuring a strong performance by Shia LaBeouf as the cantankerous American, the film is an interesting exploration of the rivalry with some good editing in the pivotal match sequences, but I doubt it will be much of a contender in the Oscar race, with its limited scope and muted ambitions.
Oscar potential: Best Supporting Actor (LaBeouf); Best Editing
“Call Me By Your Name”: A Touching Love Story In The Mix
Premiering first at Sundance way back when, this adaptation of the gay coming of age story had a lot of buzz coming into TIFF and did not disappoint, wowing audiences with its sincere and tender story of two young men falling for each other in Italy over a summer in 1982. By the perfect Italian analyst Luca Guadagnino, who did I am Love and A Bigger Splash, the sweeping romance is a bit too facile at times but its over the top excesses are purposeful and what the movie is going for. And a blockbuster scene by Michael Stuhlbarg at the end (and he’s everywhere these days) really brings down the house and coalesces together a nice message of youthful love for the epic. I expect this to be a serious awards contender come nominations time.
Oscar potential: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Timothee Chalamet), Best Supporting Actor (Stuhlbarg), Best Screenplay, Best Score
“Suburbicon”: Another Quirky Coen/Clooney piece
The seemingly infatigable team of the Coen Brothers and George Clooney are at it again with this parody/action mystery movie about life in the suburbs. It’s the 1950s and Matt Damon and Julianne Moore are a little off around the edges, hiding a sickening violence that the filmmakers clearly ascribe to the tightly-wound suburbanites they are rallying. The backdrop, as a boiling pot of water, is racial tensions that erupt when a black family moves into the all-white neighborhood. One begins to see hints of contemporary commentary in shades of Confederate flags and other small little droplets sprinkled through cinema as the Trump era goes into full swing.
But it is really the machinations of Clooney and Moore that occupy the heart of the film, which ultimately collapses upon itself as it fails to come up with a satisfactory outcome that does not devolve into the demonic and depraved.
Oscar potential: Best Screenplay, Best Score, Best Costumes, Best Art Direction, Best Cinematography
“Victoria & Abdul”: Golden Globe Comedy Nod, at Best
Dame Judi Dench returns to that grand old British monarch, Queen Victoria, once more, in the touching friendship comedy Victoria & Abdul, about the improbable relationship that the queen develops with a Muslim Indian servant who is plucked from home to present a gift to Her Majesty on account of her jubilee. Dealing with issues of race, class, and religion, the film focuses on how the court, politicians, and royal family all do their worst to torpedo the growing intellectual and emotional intimacy between the titular characters, even though the film never bothers to fully explain just exactly why the friendship grew in the first place.
But it does not much matter, because the film has a big heart, packs a number of laughs with the stiff-upper-lipped Brits scandalized by the goings on of their regent, and ultimately provides insight into a previously unknown episode in history. I doubt it makes any move at all in the Oscars race beyond the obvious tech fields, and probably not even those.
Oscar potential: Best Score, Best Costumes, Best Cinematography, Best Art Direction
“I, Tonya”: Could Get In If Distributed
Before there was O.J., there was Tonya. Before there was Anna Nicole, there were Nancy and Tonya’s husband Jeff. In the as-of-yet-not up for distribution film I, Tonya, Margot Robbie dazzles as the much-maligned, controversial figure skater who came most prominently to fame when her chief rival Nancy Kerrigan was attacked before the 1994 Olympics.
But in this at times outrageous new film, Margo plays a more complex side to Tonya’s story, one decidedly sympathetic to her (not always an easy feat given that we believe her to be the bad guy), by showing her troubled childhood, particularly at the hand of her abusive mother, played by a stunning Allison Janney. The film makes you laugh and it also makes you cry at times, and is a still-relevant commentary not only on classism in our nation but also on the persistent obsession with media and celebrity. It played very well at TIFF and could be headed for a slew of nominations if it’s distributed in time - which I believe it imminently will be.
Oscar potential: Best Picture, Best Actress (Robbie), Best Supporting Actress (Janney), Best Screenplay, Best Editing
“Molly’s Game”: Jessica’s Chance?
Meanwhile, in somewhat of a companion piece to the “white trash” I, Tonya, there is another sophisticated, kick-butt woman in the conversation, this one played by Jessica Chastain in Aaron Sorkin’s directorial debut, Molly’s Game. Like Tonya, Molly is much-maligned and misunderstood, particularly because she thinks she can hang with the big boys, and does. She runs a clandestine Poker game and eventually ends up on the wrong side of the law, even though she believes she is innocent.
Chastain plays her brilliantly and is a shoo-in for a nomination - and maybe even an overdue win?! - while Sorkin delivers his usual, insightful invective, what we have grown to be used to from him. The film has elements of The Social Network and Moneyball and, impressively, treats Molly with the same respect as Mark Zuckerberg or Billy Beane are treated - and with the same sort of pity, too. It’s a wonder to see Chastain acting next to Idris Elba, who also delivers a scene-stealing performance in one particular place.
Oscar potential: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Chastain), Best Supporting Actor (Elba), Best Screenplay, Best Score, Best Editing
Still to Come
There is a lot more to see in Toronto in the next few days, and we will check back in next week for who is a real contender and who is a pretender.