They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
The Writing and Lead Acting Races
By J. Don Birnam
February 20, 2017
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Below the line, the Makeup and Hairstylist guilds spread the love in over 23 categories, but best makeup and hair effects were split among Suicide Squad and Star Trek, both of which are vying for that Oscar on Sunday. The Cinema Audio Society (the sound mixers) gave a definitive victory to La La Land, one which it should have no problem repeating at the Academy Awards, while the Motion Picture Sound Editors gave their top prize to Hacksaw Ridge, another Oscar frontrunner in its own space.
Finally, the Writers’ Guild of America handed out awards, so it’s time to handicap those and the other remaining major categories in this year’s race. If you’re lost, here are the analyses so far: here for the below the line techs part I, here for the below the line techs part II, and here for the foreign, documentary, and animated races, and for here supporting acting and directing .
Let me know if you have differing thoughts on these three races: Twitter and Instagram.
Best Original Screenplay: La La Land’s To Lose?
Last year, Spotlight and The Big Short, two of the Best Picture frontrunners, were in different writing races, and so those were some of the easiest calls of the night. Not necessarily so this year, where you have somewhat of an embarrassment of riches to contend with in both categories. This is particularly so since La La Land lost this race to Moonlight at the WGA, but Barry Jenkins’ film is not nominated in this category.
But we still have five pretty amazing scripts, starting with Taylor Sheridan’s incredibly smart script in Hell or High Water and the equally incisive analysis of love in modern society by Yorgos Lanthimos in The Lobster. The other original gem here that is worth checking out is the analytical and never dull dialogue in Mike Mills’ 20th Century Women. All three would be worthy contenders.
But the race is most definitely between the two that are also up for Best Picture: Damien Chazelle’s La La Land and Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester by the Sea. It’s a tough call because though they like to reward the Best Picture winner with a writing award when possible (it’s an over 3/4 correlation), an original screenplay for a musical has not won since the 1950s, when Gigi did it. (Of course, no movie had won only one other Oscar other than Best Picture since the 1950s too, and that happened just last year).
What to do? La La Land won the Globe but lost the BAFTA to Manchester and the WGA to Moonlight. The musical is definitely the weaker of the two scripts, with some of the dialogue between Mia and Sebastian borderline high school-ish. Lonergan’s script, on the other hand, is a masterpiece in storytelling. He reveals the layers slowly and determinedly, the sorrow complements and juxtaposes with the lighthearted, and the effectiveness of every sentence is never in doubt.
If La La Land wins here early on, you know a huge sweep is at hand. A more discerning Academy will go elsewhere here, and it could be this movie’s only chance, particularly if Casey Affleck’s chances at an Oscar are in trouble (see below). Against my better judgement…
Will Win: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Could win: Damien Chazelle: La La Land
Best Adapted Screenplay: Surprise Brewing?
Meanwhile, in Adapted, Moonlight is in the correct category (it was in Original at WGA), but it faces off against Lion, to which it lost at BAFTA and Arrival, which won Best Adapted at the WGA and is obviously a beloved movie. So what gives? They also have to contend with Theodore Melfi’s Hidden Figures and August Wilson for his posthumous adaptation of his own play, Fences. I think this race is wide open.
The smart money is supposedly on Moonlight, but I do wonder if this is another one of those categories where pundit/critics have willed that movie into a “second place” position at the Oscars that it does not actually enjoy. Could this be the place where they recognize Wilson? Or find a single Oscar to give to the surging Hidden Figures? Could Weinstein’s push for Lion, and that movie’s ability to pull at heartstrings, see it through? I honestly could see all five of these wining, particularly given that Arrival is beloved by a core group and has a very smart screenplay. The year The Imitation Game pulled off a surprise victory you had a similar situation brewing - Weinstein was behind the movie, and it featured lovable and unrecognized heroes. It bodes well for Lion and Hidden Figures. This is a tougher race than the easy Moonlight pick suggests, though if he pulls it off Barry Jenkins will join Lee Daniels (Precious) as the only two African American men to win here.
Will win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Could win: Eric Heisser: Arrival
Best Actress: Emma’s Show
Here’s an easy race again. The suspense in this category was always who was going to get in, and with at least 10 worthy contenders, it was a nail-biter until the end. Amy Adams and Emily Blunt made a lot of the precursors, though the latter of the two was not really taken seriously as a contender and neither made it.
Meryl Streep sort of came out of nowhere to score her record-breaking 20th nod, and her Globes speech won her at least temporary goodwill, enough to secure her place. Natalie Portman was another one that showed up everywhere - she even won the Critics’ Choice early on, leading some of us to think she had a shot - and seeing her in for her exquisite work in Jackie.
So, two other spots remained, and I was delighted to find out that the Actors’ branch made space for a nuanced, quiet and powerful performance (Ruth Negga’s in Loving), as well as a more daring but also multilayered role in a controversial movie (Isabelle Huppert’s in Elle).
But, as soon as her runaway train movie left the station, there was little doubt actually left that Emma Stone would win an Academy Award for La La Land. Debating the merits of this is not really fruitful for this endeavor. Although I would put her squarely in last place of the five, this does not matter for a whole bevy of reasons. They love the young ingénue, they love giving an acting award to a Best Picture winner, she hasn’t lost at all, not at Globes, not at SAG, not at BAFTA, since that very early loss. And she’s the center of the movie.
You can spin your head into circles if you want - oh, Natalie is better, oh Streep will win as an EFF you to Trump, oh Huppert will win because she’s the veteran actress. Fun to discuss, but a sure miss on your Oscar ballot if you go off any of those improbable cliffs.
Will win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Could win: N/A
Best Actor: Nailbiter
It is supremely ironic that the wide open Actress race in the nomination stage gave way to a boring fait accompli, whereas the race that seemed easy and locked all season all of a sudden seems not so.
In Best Actor, we never really had that many contenders to begin with, so it is not surprise that the SAG five matched the Oscar five exactly. We have Viggo Mortensen, a welcome addition to the group for his performance as the well-intentioned dad in Captain Fantastic; Andrew Garfield for his performance as the conscientious objector in Hacksaw Ridge, and Ryan Gosling for the love interest in La La Land.
But the race seemed like a complete runaway for the much lauded Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea, winner of basically every critic award under the sun, until the SAG upended the entire thing by giving it Denzel Washington, for Fences. Affleck rebounded to win BAFTA, but Washington was criminally not nominated there.
What to do? Well, you can rationalize away the SAG win and stick with Affleck. Washington had never won there, the voting constituency is much more diverse than AMPAS, and lackluster campaigning and sexual harassment allegations have dogged Affleck. Indeed, it’s not uncommon for black actors to win at SAG only to go home empty-handed on Oscar night (think Viola Davis, Idris Elba, etc.).
On the other hand, Washington’s is a superb performance. It’s loud, bombastic, and showy. It’s an actor’s role. It goes well with Viola Davis’s upcoming win. It compliments it. It shows they’re serious about #OscarsSoWhite, etc. etc. There are 1,001 reasons why Washington could and should win. But the converse is also true. Affleck has simply been on a roll all year and his movie is more likely to appeal to what remains the core Oscar constituency - older white men - than Washington’s.
I’m afraid you’re on your own here.
Will win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Could win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Next Up: The Final Handicap, Best Picture