They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Guild Weekend Predictions
By J. Don Birnam
January 26, 2017
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The Best Picture of the Techs: ACE Eddie Award
The Editors are considered one of the most important branches of the Academy. They put the film together and few movies win Best Picture without having at least an Editing nomination, although of course Birdman did it just two years ago. All things considered, you’d rather have this nomination than not. But before we get to that race at the Oscars, let’s consider what Friday’s award ceremony at the guild may bring.
The Editors, like many other guilds, split their prizes into different genres. This year, for Best Edited Dramatic film they nominated Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, and Hell or High Water. This matched the Oscars’ five except of course that Manchester did not get in, ceding its place to the juggernaut La La Land. That film is up for Best Edited Comedy with Eddie, along with Deadpool, The Lobster, Hail, Caesar!, and The Jungle Book. There is of course no question that the Oscar frontrunner will win its category - the question is what will win in Drama. Will the editors go for the movie they want to win Best Picture? If so you can expect to see Moonlight triumph. However, action/war movies also do well here, so any of the three movies, including Arrival can win. To be fair, the editing in Machester also stands out, but without the Best Editing nomination at the Oscars, the win here seems a stretch.
So, I’m actually going to guess that Arrival and La La Land triumph - the former is after all buoyed by its tricks enhanced through editing, but whether that translates into Oscar gold remains to be seen.
The Bellwether Guild: The PGA
Meanwhile, the important producers will speak on Saturday. Since the expansion of the Best Picture slate, they had called the Best Picture winner correctly every single year until the last, when they anointed The Big Short their favorite film but Spotlight went on to win at the Oscars. It was probably close.
This year, ten movies vie for their prize - the nine that are up for Best Picture at the Oscars plus Deadpool. I have no doubt that La La will triumph here, thus sealing its trip to the podium. While it may be tempting to think that they will go for the movie that made money, the movie that is a studio movie, etc., that is not the case and that has not been the case in their history. They go for the movie they like the most and it is clear that the industry likes Damien Chazelle’s movie the most.
Sure, if something else won, then La La Land’s momentum may be stunted, but do not bet on it. It will win easily on Saturday.
The Popular Guild: SAG
Finally we come to SAG, which provides the acting contenders a chance to show off a bit and prepare for their speeches, and where the big story was La La Land’s miss in the Best Ensemble Cast race. SAG has interesting races, and we will know more about what is going to happen at the Oscars after this Sunday.
In Supporting Actor, I have a hard time seeing anyone beating out Mahershala Ali from Moonlight. The list is the same as at the Oscars except SAG has Hugh Grant instead of Michael Shannon. I suppose Jeff Bridges, the veteran, could have a shot, but I don’t see why, considering he’s won before.
In Best Supporting Actress it is again possible that you could see Viola Davis upset by Naomie Harris, again from Moonlight, although if Ali triumphs, this may make them spread the love. But Davis has won before at SAG. Maybe they think Michelle Williams is overdue for one and give it to her, where Harris is still a newcomer. The other two nominees, Octavia Spencer and Nicole Kidman, have won before and do not have a chance. I’m still calling it for Davis, but I would not be surprised at Harris.
Best Actor is also mildly interesting. Everyone has been assuming Casey Affleck is going to win and he’s been doing well, no doubt. But, query whether the bad campaigning will hurt him. He’s up against Denzel Washington, who has never won a SAG before. An upset is therefore a real possibility that is too hard to ignore. The other three, Andrew Garfield, Viggo Mortensen, and Ryan Gosling, have no real chance. Again, I’m sticking with the favorite, but look for an upset if you want some Oscar drama.
Then there is Best Actress, one of the toughest races all year. They have two women that the Oscars don’t, Amy Adams and Emily Blunt, and I doubt either of these will triumph. Clearly the industry doesn’t have broad support for them, though Blunt is probably in the most popular movies. So there are Meryl Streep, Natalie Portman, and Emma Stone. Had the first two not already won, I’d feel less confident in picking Stone. But as you know, La La Land is not up for Best Ensemble, and I have a hard time seeing them not awarding anything at all to that film. I mean, it has happened before - Argo was a non-entity at SAG and still won Best Picture - but Argo was divisive in its own ways (no Best Director nomination). La La Land is not.
Is it possible that they’ll reward Streep for her Globes speech? Perhaps, but I don’t think Hollywood is as uniformly liberal as the popular consensus is. Is it possible they’ll think Stone’s performance too weak and go with Portman? I suppose, but again, I don’t think so. I’m sticking with Stone, and if she wins this, this race will be over too.
Finally, we come to the most interesting race of the SAG night, what with no La La Land there to sweep. The one that I cannot see winning Best Ensemble is Captain Fantastic, though I would love nothing more. I also think Manchester by the Sea is too bleak for them. It really boils down to the three African American stories - Hidden Figures, Fences, and Moonlight.
It seems almost impossible that they won’t pick Barry Jenkins’ movie, so that’s my pick. Hidden Figures had a late surge so I would not discount it, and Fences, of course, has two nominees and at least one likely winner. So, it could be close.
Next week, we begin handicapping the 24 Oscar categories.
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