They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
La La Land Dominates Oscar Nods
By J Don Birnam
January 24, 2017
BoxOfficeProphets.com
This morning, as the Academy announced the nominations with a new, prerecorded format, the question in everyone's mind was just how high will the movie go? Scoring nominations in essentially every category it was eligible for, including Picture, Director, Actor (Ryan Gosling), Actress (Emma Stone), and two song nominations, the only two words that are really relevant for the remainder of this Oscar season are "La" and "Land." The film was joined by Moonlight which, along with Arrival, received eight nominations apiece, including for Directing and that ever important Editing category. But Arrival was shut out of the impossibly competitive Best Actress race, which stunned us by having both Ruth Negga and Isabelle Huppert instead. Both selections were deserved and perhaps it’s for the best that Amy Adams wouldn't have to lose.
Also nominated for Best Picture was the other festival hit, Manchester by the Sea, which scored only five nods given that it is not really a showy movie. Casey Affleck and Michelle Williams received nods, though only the former has a real shot at a win. Director Ken Lonergan appeared in the Directing and Screenplay categories.
Another story to come out of this morning's nominations is that Mel Gibson appears fully rehabilitated. He made it into the Best Director race, and Hacksaw Ridge did very well with the Academy, scoring Picture, Editing, Actor (Andrew Garfield) and some technical nominations.
And, thankfully, one can finally put to rest the dubious #OscarsSoWhite controversy that had dominated the news cycle for the past two awards season. The Supporting Actress category broke a record, with three African American nominees this year: Viola Davis, Naomie Harris, and past winner Octavia Spencer. Indeed, the Best Picture race contains three stories of African American lives, from Moonlight to the last minute surging Hidden Figures and Denzel Washington's Fences.
Weinstein's Lion rounds out the Best Picture slate, which for the first time in a couple of years showed nine nominees. This is somewhat of a surprising result, given the voting rules. The Academy needs at least 5% of the vote to get a Best Picture nomination and a slice of #1 votes. If La La Land is as popular as we think it is, why did so many other movies get in for Best Picture?
Elsewhere in the nominations there were few surprises. I, along most other pundits, predicted Best Actor exactly, as well as Best Supporting Actress - neither of those two were in doubt at all. Best Supporting Actor felt like it had space for one question mark, and Nocturnal Animals did score a nomination there, but it was for Michael Shannon, not Globes winner Aaron Taylor-Johnson. And as I mentioned, Best Actress showed a little bit of pop - that was always the toughest category.
We will have much more to write about this Oscar race and season. Without taking anything away from the delightful La La Land, it does seem like Hollywood and the Academy's insularity has reached extraordinary proportions of late. Up until The Artist, no movie about Hollywood had ever won Best Picture. Now, several have, and this one is about to take the rest of them by the storm and tie and possibly break the record of 11 Oscars. Why? Is the movie that good? Or have we become all so insular in our lives that the coast elites can't see past their own noses either?
Given everything else that is happening in the world and in our politics, it is certainly a question worth pondering.
As for my predictions, I had a pretty good year, with 81/102 (almost 80%) rate. I nailed the three "feature film" categories--Foreign Language, Documentary, and Animated, as well as Film Editing, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Screenplay.
Some early predictions: Will tying the record hurt La La Land? The easy and obvious answer is that it will not. The movie is about Hollywood, and the insularity mentioned above is now in full display. La La Land will win Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay, Editing, Score, Song, Costumes, and Cinematography at the very least, probably also Sound Mixing and Editing, taking it to 11 Oscars. Art Direction seems the iffiest.
Moonlight will probably win Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor, while Manchester will take Best Actor. Best Supporting Actress will likely go to Viola Davis, Foreign Film to Toni Erdmann, Animated to Zootopia and Documentary to O.J.. That's about all the categories except Visual Effects and Make-Up, and the shorts.
The full list of nominees follows:
Best Foreign Language Film
Land of Mine (Denmark)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
The Salesman (Iran)
Tanna (Australia)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)
Best Documentary Feature Film
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
Best Animated Feature Film
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Best Make-Up And Hairstyling
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
Best Visual Effects
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One
Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
Best Original Song
“Audition” – La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls
“City of Stars” – La La Land
“The Empty Chair” – Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go” – Moana
Best Original Score
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
Best Costume Design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Best Production Design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
Best Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
Best Film Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel – Lion
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis – Fences
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
Best Actor
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington – Fences
Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Ruth Negga – Loving
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Director
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneueve – Arrival
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Manchester by the Sea