A-List: Top Five Contenders for Oscars 2017
By J. Don Birnam
March 8, 2016
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Last year, however, I did not do so poorly. I listed Woody Allen’s movie as the fifth most likely to get in there, and we know that was a complete dud. But I also had Carol, which had six nominations and arguably narrowly missed out on the final list; Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight - which also had a fighting chance but perhaps suffered from Tarantino fatigue; as well as Bridge of Spies and The Revenant in the top two spots. Both, of course, were eventual winners, and The Revenant nearly pulled it off. Still, as I wrote somewhat amazingly a year before the ceremony, it would be hard to imagine a movie by the same director winning two years in a row, and that is essentially, arguably, what happened.
Looking back, I also mentioned Brooklyn, Suffragette, and Joy as potential movies to watch. One made it in and the other two fizzled. So, hopefully, some of the movies on today’s list will be in the conversation.
We have somewhat of a cheating head start these days because Sundance occurs even before the last year’s Oscars are given out, and it has become almost a staple that at least one movie from the festival makes it in. Brooklyn was that movie last year, and Whiplash the year before. There is one movie from Sundance that I’ll discuss later that may in fact win it all, but another one worth mentioning is Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester By the Sea. The movie stars Casey Affleck and Michelle Williams, both surefire acting contenders, and focuses on a man who is made the legal guardian of his dead brother’s son. I have not seen the movie, but have heard that it is perhaps too bleak to be in the conversation. Indeed, Lonergan’s other recent movie, Margaret, was somewhat artsy and quirky and was nothing more than an indie favorite. We shall see if his latest attempt at directing (he also wrote Gangs of New York) will fare any different.
I’m also tempted to include Jackie, the movie starring Natalie Portman that focuses on the former First Lady in the days after John F. Kennedy’s assassination. However, I have learned my lesson and know better than to predict female-centric movies to do well at the Oscars. The occasional Brooklyn gets in, but it has been since Chicago that a movie focused on women leads wins Best Picture. It just rarely happens. The movie is directed by Pablo Larrain, the acclaimed Chilean director behind the Oscar-nominated No, so perhaps there is hope yet. For now, however, it remains as an honorable mention.
5. The Founder (Weinstein)
Although director John Lee Hancock is not yet a household name (he did direct The Blind Side and Saving Mr. Banks), here are some household names for you: Michael Keaton (star of two Best Picture winners in a row), Harvey Weinstein, and Ray Kroc. The Founder, the next movie backed by the Weinstein’s (who have had dreadful luck at the Oscars after back-to-back victories in 2010 and 2011), tells the story of the founder of America’s most recognizable fast food chain. And it stars an actor whose fortunes are rising and revived, and who has accumulated a lot of good will among powerful Hollywood elites.
It remains to be seen whether the movie will be bogged down in the clichéd sentimentalities that arguably kept Hancock’s last two movies from doing better with awards, but the subject matter sure is promising. Moreover, could this finally be the victory that Keaton is looking for, after that near miss two years ago for Birdman? (To be fair, Harvey does have another potential contender up his sleeve, Lion, about an Indian kid searching for his real parents, but somehow this movie feels more up the Academy’s lane).
I’m loving it.
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Ang Lee)
Oscar nerds: has any person won two Best Director Oscars without netting a Best Picture win? I do not know the answer to that question other than to say Ang Lee, who returns to the stage after winning for Life of Pi with this movie about a group of Iraq soldiers who are the subject of a tribute during a football game.
If you thought a movie about McDonald’s founder Kroc was strong Americana, try this movie on for size. Sure, it is director by a Taiwanese man, but it also stars Kristen Stewart, Steve Martin, and Vin Diesel. With most expecting Lee’s signature careful and sentimental moviemaking to make an appearance, it is hard to imagine that this movie will not resonate enough to at least be in the conversation. The question is whether Lee can finally break that curse and win it all?
3. The Girl on the Train (Tate Taylor)
Despite my warning against it, I could not help but predict a female-centric movie to make the list. Tate Taylor, who successfully adapted the beloved novel The Help into a Best Picture contender, looks to do for this novel what David Fincher could not for Gone Girl. But unlike The Help and more like Gone Girl, the story is a psycho-sexual thriller that has kept readers enthralled since 2015.
The adaption stars Emily Blunt as the titular girl, who every day on her way to work passes by her ex-husband’s house, where he now lives with his new wife. You can imagine the rest. Suffice it to say that a delicious Emily Blunt can always be counted on at least for wicked laughter, and that lesser psychological thrillers adapted from novels, from The Martian to Room, always do well with the Oscars. It is not hard to see why: movies that have familiar and tested stories tend to do well. It is somewhat incredible, in fact, that the last two winners of Best Picture are wholly original stories, although Spotlight at least is based on a true story. Could this somewhat campy popcorn novel make a dent? Either way, I can’t wait to find out.
2. Silence (Martin Scorsese) Five of Scorsese’s last six movies have been Best Picture nominees (with The Departed winning, of course), and with Hugo netting several Oscars. This time, he focuses on the story of two Jesuit priests who travel to Japan as missionaries, and the challenges they face. I am a big fan of Scorsese, so putting him on this list is perhaps somewhat of a fanboy move, but it is hard to argue with the team he has put together, including his longtime editing partner and three-time Oscar winner Thelma Schoonmaker, composer Howard Shore, and cinematographer Rodrigo Prieto (who did Wolf of Wall Street and Argo) and who, as a Mexican national, perhaps can continue the stranglehold in that category by Mexicans, after three years of Lubezki.
If there is a knock or concern about the team he has assembled is that the movie stars Andrew Garfield, who has not exactly blown people away with his acting. Still, I expect Scorsese to deliver with the poignancy he’s known for, and nothing would please me more than to see him take the stage one more time.
1. Birth of a Nation (Nate Parker)
But it is without question The Birth of a Nation that many have already crowned the Best Picture winner in 2017. The movie, by the actor Nate Parker in his first directorial turn, tells the story of a slave uprising in Virginia in the 1830s. The subject matter is for obvious reasons, in any year, Oscar bait. Put that on the heels of two years running of the #OscarsSoWhite controversy, and it is almost impossible to imagine that this movie will not be a serious contender to win it all next year.
The movie, indeed, already made history as the most expensive acquisition in a festival ever: Fox Searchlight, the distributors of Best Picture winner 12 Years a Slave, paid $17.5 million for rights to the movie. And, although no man has ever directed himself to a Best Actor win, Parker will strive to be the first.
The question, of course, is whether a movie that is anointed earlier than any ever as the surefire Best Picture winner can ever withstanding that momentum. Great movies like Boyhood and Brokeback Mountain have not been able to sustain the scrutiny, pressure, and even disdain that comes with that label. As I discussed in my column about potential Oscar winners in 2016 last year, the best way to do it is to go unnoticed. Appearing on lists such as these almost guarantees a failure.
But, if any movie is going to break that streak, surely, it will be the one that galvanizes the racial controversies that have plagued Hollywood over the last few years, won’t it?
I guess you’ll have to stick around to find out