Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
February 16, 2016
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jason Barney: The opening of Deadpool reinforces something I learned when Guardians of the Galaxy came out a year and a half ago. I think it is impossible to accurately predict (to the upside) just how much the Marvel universe has influenced the movie industry. It is almost always to the upside. Perhaps my estimates should be compared with how Ant-Man performed, but for the longest time, I honestly thought Deadpool would be on the lower end of the money makers in the Marvel universe. I mean, I didn’t discount the film, but it wasn’t until some of the first reviews came out that I started to think we might have something special here like we did with Guardians of the Galaxy.
My point is that it just didn’t open strong. Marvel has managed to set another record, and it has done it at a particularly interesting time. February isn’t exactly the hottest month at the box office, but Deadpool has opened larger than most summer blockbusters. ANY discussion of superhero fatigue should be put on the shelf for a long time.
Deadpool’s opening is nothing short of amazing on many levels. Let’s discount the fact that a large portion of the movie-going population of the United States experienced truly frigid temperatures this weekend. Deadpool was made for $60 million and the marketing and advertising probably pushed this well north of $100 million. With a four-day total over $150 million, everything from here on out is pure profit. For a product in the Marvel universe, this is huge; for any film it is beyond noteworthy.
At this point I am not as convinced as some that a lot of this weekend’s number is front-loading, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a decent to strong hold next weekend. Its Rotten Tomatoes rating is only going to help.
When all is said and done, Deadpool will likely have earned more than $300 million domestically. I don’t think anyone was predicting that when this was put on the schedule.
Felix Quinonez Jr: I'd say that they nailed it with the advertising which hit all the right beats. Going all the way back to the Comic-Con preview a year ago, they have been teasing the movie perfectly. It also helped, a lot, that Ryan Reynolds pulled out all the stops to get the word out. His enthusiasm for the movie and love for the character has been very evident and definitely helped raise audience interest. But more important, the ads and promos nailed the tone perfectly. They were both weird and intriguing.
This showed fans that the movie would handle the character properly. And this was especially important because the studio's previous attempt at bringing Deadpool to the big screen was an unmitigated disaster.
And the trailers themselves were funny and action packed enough to attract audiences outside of the character's fan base. Also, we can't leave out the fact that the movie itself seems to be really good. It has great reviews and a very solid "A" cinema score. But another major asset was the release date. Deadpool had the both Valentine's Day and President's Day to help its opening weekend.
Michael Lynderey: Now, who didn't see this coming? Be honest. As soon as I heard they were making a Deadpool movie, especially one starring Ryan Reynolds, I thought to myself: "Okay, $150 million for a four-day weekend is a gimme for starters, but how high can it go beyond that?" In fact, for years now, when people have asked me what movie I thought could beat Avatar's total box office record, I would usually answer "whatever James Cameron does next, obviously, then probably a new Star Wars movie, oh, and, I almost forgot, Deadpool". Oh, is it going to be rated R? Well, then I'm low-balling it. A February release date, wedged in between Star Wars and Batman v. Superman? Then I'm definitely underpredicting. So I'm actually really disappointed that the opening wasn't a bit closer to $230 million or $250 million, which I think is where most reasonable people would have guessed it.
Deadpool is such a wildly popular and recognizable character - he's had the biggest-selling comic book series for 25 years (even people who hate comic books usually check out a Deadpool issue or two a year); three consecutive hit television shows that just wouldn't get off the air because people kept watching no matter how bad they got; and I see kids dressed as Deadpool for Halloween all the time, much more so than any other comic book character, by far - that I'm not sure what took so long for them to actually get a movie out there. Just making a Deadpool movie is practically a license to print money - lots and lots of it. And while the studio is presumably disappointed it didn't break the weekend record, as it by all rights should have, I'm sure they're still somewhat pleased.
Ben Gruchow: What intrigues me most about an opening of this size is the implications for the future of the non-Marvel Studios Marvel movie. If Deadpool had done this same number with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 25% and a weekend multiplier of 2.0, I think this conversation would have a different tone; we'd be talking about another instance where a studio needs to give the rights back to Marvel so they can do it correctly, as we saw with Fant4Stic last August. Instead, the movie is just about as good as an in-house Marvel Studios film, better in certain areas, and it just opened larger than any non-Avengers/non-Downey Jr. (consarn you, Iron Man 3!) Marvel film.
It's a pointed kiss-off to the idea that another studio bearing a Marvel license can't equal the in-house studio at their own game, and that's a good thing; intricacies of a gigantic singular over-arcing narrative aside, I like seeing different interpretations of a comic-book ethos. Nothing about Deadpool suggested to me that it wasn't incredibly stage-managed by Fox in the same way that the in-house Marvel movies are stage-managed by Disney, but it's still a different sensibility at work (more self-referential, more focused on the nature of mutant powers...both things it shares with the X-Men movies). For what it's worth, I think this opens the door for smaller, niche, "outsider" Marvel products. Not Blade, because Marvel got the rights back, and not the Punisher, because Marvel got the rights back, and not Daredevil, because Marvel got the rights back, and...so, yeah. I look forward to another Fantastic Four reboot in four years.
Edwin Davies: It's a pretty much perfect combination of film and marketing. The ad campaign for Deadpool, going back to Comic-Con last year, has been built around selling the tone of the film as a fun, irreverent and self-aware comic book movie that stands in stark contrast to the increased convolutions of the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the super-seriousness of DC's upcoming Batman vs. Superman. There was a gap for a superhero movie that didn't take itself too seriously, and Deadpool pursued it.
In terms of the film itself, it delivered what was promised. It translated the tone of the comics in such a way that it wouldn't alienate the fans, while also being accessible enough for non-fans to jump on board. And Ryan Reynolds, who is a weird quantity in that he's an actor most people seem to like but has almost never been involved in a film that actually made money, was a perfect fit for the character and went the extra mile when it came to pushing the film's viral marketing and embodying the character as much as possible.
David Mumpower: First of all, anybody who claims that they knew this was going to happen is lying. And I’m including the people involved with the production. Deadpool languished on the backburner for years after the release of X-Men Origins: Wolverine. That’s because nobody really understood what to do with the character, which is understandable. I’ve mentioned before that I didn’t really get Deadpool until I was playing one of those disposable Marvel: Ultimate Alliance games. During a random train station level, Deadpool inexplicably says of a supervillain, “Sure, he’s evil, but he keeps the trains running on time.” I’ve laughed at that joke for years now.
The writers of Deadpool finally found that perfect way to unlock the potential of a wisecracking character that can break the fourth wall. Better yet, they let it spill over into the advertising. Some of the jokes, especially the Valentine’s Day trailer, were beyond brilliant. In combination with the willingness of Ryan Reynolds to do absolutely anything for a laugh, they built the perfect storm of viral marketing. People who didn’t know who Deadpool was at the end of 2015, which was just six weeks ago (!), were posting videos, GIFs, and status updates about the character last week. The entire turn of events was amazing to behold.
The other thing I want to point out about the situation is that Ryan Reynolds is a handsome, charismatic guy. While he’s had a couple of hits like Safe House and The Proposal, North American audiences have largely rejected him as a lead actor. Then, he slaps on a ridiculous Thin Santa Claus costume where nobody can see his face and starts acting like a jerk. Suddenly, he’s the flavor of the month (again). The entire turn of events must be completely mystifying to him. We’re talking about a guy who can act (See: Buried and Adventureland) and who has targeted theoretically commercial projects (See: The Change-Up, Green Lantern, Blade: Trinity, Amityville Horror, R.I.P.D. and so forth). THIS is the movie that makes his career. It’s stuff like this that reinforces that William Goldman quote that nobody knows anything.
Finally, I want to give a shout-out to Deadpool creator Rob Liefeld. I know from a couple of conversations ages ago that he’s dreamt of this movie for years. My guess is that even in his wildest dreams, he never could’ve imagined that the first Deadpool movie would instantly torpedo every Wolverine film and even The Matrix reloaded on its way to shattering box office records. Congratulations on your blockbuster hit!