They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
The Writing and Acting Races
By J. Don Birnam
February 16, 2016
BoxOfficeProphets.com

Whatever Brick Tamland did this time, it must be really bad.

We enter the final two weeks of this year’s unpredictable Oscar season fresh off the heels of another Revenant win. This time, the British Academy (BAFTA), awarded the film five awards, including Best Feature and Director. This, coupled with the momentum from the DGA win last week, give The Revenant gas at precisely the right time: Oscar voting began last Friday and will continue onto next week. It could be that the Best Picture race is officially over. We will talk about that next week. Today, we focus on four categories that appear to be mortal locks at the Oscars.

The handicap of the technical races is here and here. I talked about the shorts here, and the other feature films, in this post.

BAFTA Adds to Revenant’s Momentum.

The BAFTA did not always have the relevance it has today, despite the fact that 500 or so of its members are also members of the Academy. But, in recent years, they moved the date of their show to be before the Oscars and have adapted the same voting patterns as the Oscars except for the Best Picture preferential ballot. It is thus that BAFTA had correctly picked the eventual Best Picture six years in a row until, notably, last year. It has also gone on to correctly forecast eventual Oscar winners in tight races, from Meryl Streep over Viola Davis, to Sean Penn over Mickey Rourke. Even in technical races, picks like Whiplash for Editing and Sound turned into eventual wins at the Oscars.

So, it is not surprising that some of its picks on Sunday raised eyebrows. Mad Max had a mini-technical sweep over The Revenant, winning even costumes and make-up, two awards I expect to go to other movies at the Oscars. The Revenant, meanwhile, won Sound, one I have Mad Max winning. And so on. It’s just that kind of year.

Does BAFTA really mean that much this year? The Globes went for the Revenant as a way to catch up on Birdman’s win last year. Given that BAFTA also went for Boyhood last year, it is possible that they too are playing catchup to Alejandro González Iñárritu. Still, it is perilous to ignore that The Revenant leads the Oscar nominations, won the DGA, and has now won BAFTA. I have no choice for the moment but to move the movie up to the number one slot. Here are updated Best Picture standings.

In other BAFTA races, Kate Winslet won supporting (but Alicia Vikander was nominated in lead). I still think Vikander is ahead to win the Oscar, but it is obvious that Kate is going to give her a run for her money. Mark Rylance finally won an award, defeating Idris Elba (Stallone was not nominated). It is hard to ignore that the one time they faced off, at the Globes, Stallone defeated Rylance, but I think the BAFTA win gives him the legitimacy he needs to be an alternative to Stallone.

Here are updated best supporting actor and best supporting actress power rankings, which we will look at in with more depth in our next post.

Original and Adapted Screenplay: Spotlight and The Big Short Locks.

So let’s return to handicapping the races, shall we? We are down to the eight main categories. Four of them are easy calls on Oscar night.

For Best Original Screenplay, the nominees were Spotlight scripters Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer; Bridge of Spies, by the Coen brothers; Ex Machina, written by Alex Garland; Straight Outta Compton, by Andrea Berloff and Jonathan Herman; and Inside Out, by Pete Docter and Meg LeFauve. This is an easy call because it is the easy place for the Academy to reward the respected Spotlight. The script just won the Writers Guild Award on Saturday, followed by BAFTA on Sunday, and has no real challenger.

The Coen brothers gave Spielberg a tight script, but they are past winners. Meanwhile, I doubt the Academy will want to touch Straight Outta Compton’s sole nomination with a ten-foot pole, given that they managed to nominate the only white individuals associated with the movie. The nomination for Inside Out shows it’s beloved within the Academy and that it will win Animated Feature, but would be a stunning result if it won. And while Ex Machina was very well liked by the industry, its script was its weakest link if you ask me. No, this one is Spotlight’s by a landslide.

Updated, and really, final, Original Screenplay rankings are here.

Will win: Spotlight
Could win: N/A

In Adapted Screenplay, meanwhile, the competition was a little stiffer, but the outcome is no less well known. The nominees ended up being Adam McKay and Charles Randolph for The Big Short (from Michael Lewis’ book), Phyllis Nagy for Carol, Drew Goddard for The Martian, Nick Hornby for Brooklyn, and Emma Donoghue for adapting her own Room. Again, the outcome is not really in doubt here. The Big Short, just like Spotlight, won at the Writers’ Guild Awards and then won at BAFTA. It is the obvious place to reward one of the leading Best Picture contenders.

The real intrigue in this category is that The Revenant did not make it in, and what that means for its Best Picture chances. If you ask me, The Revenant’s miss here is more a sign of the crowded field (even Aaron Sorkin was looked over for Steve Jobs) than the weakness of the movie. It sure didn’t stop it from winning at BAFTA, where it had no screenplay nomination either. In any case, The Big Short is likely the deserving winner, as adapting a Michael Lewis analytical novel into a movie with a dramatic arc is no easy task. All other adaptations in the race range from good to great, but this one will be an easy win for The Big Short.

Updated, and also final, Best Adapted Screenplay rankings, are here.

Will win: The Big Short
Could win: N/A

Lead Acting: Leo and Brie Locks

And not to bury the lede, but the lead acting races are not any more suspenseful than the writing awards. In Best Actor, the nominees are Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant, and I’m not sure who else. I hear, however, that Michael Fassbender made it in for Steve Jobs, Bryan Cranston landed his first nomination for Trumbo, Eddie Redmayne is back, hoping to repeat, this time for The Danish Girl, and that Matt Damon snuck in for The Martian.

On top of the fact that Leo won the Globe, the SAG, and BAFTA (I don’t know of an example in the last 10 years of someone wining that trifecta and losing the Oscar), the other performances are not powerful enough to defeat him. Sure, Fassbender knocks it out of the park, Cranston is a beloved Hollywood persona and Redmayne provided a moving performance. But Cranston failed to break through even in the friendly SAG territory, where a lot of his TV pals voted, and Fassbender stars in a movie that nobody liked.

The narrative that DiCaprio is overdue has taken hold, and the Internet has worked itself up to a frenzy of support for him. Regardless of whether you think this is DiCaprio’s best performance or not, five nominations certainly is “overdue” territory around these parts. If anything else wins I will be stunned, and the Academy will lose so much popularity it will look back with longing on the good old days of when #OscarsSoWhite was their biggest problem.

Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Could win: N/A

Lead actress is similarly locked up. Despite rumors that category confusion could bring in Alicia Vikander or Rooney Mara into the race, those two ended up in supporting (the latter with nearly 70% of the movie’s run time under her belt). The person that breathed the biggest sigh of relief when that happened was undoubtedly Brie Larson, nominated for Room, as it cleared her path to victory. Also nominated are past winners Cate Blanchett for Carol and Jennifer Lawrence for Joy, past nominee and my personal favorite, Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn, and newcomer Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years.

Rampling may have had an outside chance until she made politically incorrect comments about the #OscarsSoWhite issues, and Lawrence stars in a movie that was widely panned. If anyone was going to give Larson a run for her money it would be Ronan, for her moving, touching, and subtle performance.

But, it is Larson that, likeDiCaprio, won SAG, Globe and BAFTA. She’s sailing to the win in ways that bring envy to presidential candidates embroiled in long-running primary battles. Larson gives the showiest, loudest performance of the bunch, is in a Best Picture nominee, and is the popular newcomer to the scene. Her win is also assured.

Updated and now final Best Actor and updated Best Actress power rankings are linked.

Will win: Brie Larson
Could win: N/A

Next up we will look at much more difficult and intriguing races: those for Director and Supporting Actor and Actress. Then Best Picture. “It will all be over soon.”