Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
December 9, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jason Barney: The opening of The Good Dinosaur is a bit interesting in that Pixar has gone the route of beloved child interest, relying on dinosaurs for their holiday product. I think that aspect of the creative effort is a major win. As long as the product is good, it should perform very well over the next several weeks. The five-day Thanksgiving take of $55 million was good and the $75 million at this point is strong enough, but I was amazed by the size of the price tag for this. $200 million seems like an awful steep figure, so the holds and family audiences need to be strong for this to match its production budget. Obviously the formula of using international box office as part of the path to profitability is part of the equation, but having to score $600 million is a big task. This needs a strong holiday run, no doubt. The word-of-mouth should be positive enough with the 76% fresh rating from Rotten Tomatoes.
Kim Hollis: Sadly, The Good Dinosaur has the potential to be the lowest grossing Pixar film. The holidays may prop it up some, but the concern is that a 76% fresh rating from Rotten Tomatoes for Pixar is like a 20% fresh rating for anyone else. Fair or not, people have come to expect (much) more from Pixar. The good news for them is that 2015 will be remembered as the year they released Inside Out, and The Good Dinosaur will be little more than a footnote. I will say this, though. At least it looks like they gave it their best shot after the production difficulties the film went through early on. It’s tough to overcome that sort of thing, particularly with animated projects. It’s just tough to be an animated dinosaur film during the same year we got a whopper of a CGI dino film in Jurassic World.
Ben Gruchow: The $200 million figure for this movie is a little misleading, because I don't think all of it was spent on what we see on the screen. The production issues that The Good Dinosaur went through are fairly well-known, and any time you have a movie that changes creative teams and goes back to the drawing board and gets delayed by more than a year, you're going to end up with an inflated budgetary figure. Look at Tangled from 2010, and its gigantic $260 million price tag; that was another film that underwent a significant creative change during the production process. If anything, I have a feeling that $175-$200 million falls under what Pixar probably spent on this. The movie looks incredible on a technical level, and the visual approach the studio went with could have easily filled a $175 million budget or so on its own.
I think the simplicity and the elementary level of the story and theme came through in the advertising, and I think what we've seen here is a film that appealed mostly to younger children, while older children, teenagers, and adults gave it a pass. The opening weekend and projected domestic finish (around $130-$140 million) is similar to the Rio and Hotel Transylvania films (ironically, and not accounting for inflation, the gross is extremely close to 2000's Dinosaur). Foreign grosses aren't really inspiring either, and we've probably got the lowest-grossing Pixar film to date, with or without inflation.
Reagen Sulewski: I've said for some time that Pixar has some things to worry about if it drifts from its unchallenged status at the top of the quality peak. They've rarely advertised well, so legs have been paramount for them. With a weak concept like this, it not only damages the take of this film, but any future Pixar films. The clarion call for so long has been "Ooh, Pixar!" Now you've got people who skipped the last one and it becomes easier not to bother with the next one.
Max Braden: I took a look at family-friendly Thanksgiving releases for the past ten years and the only movies I could find that dropped more than 55% the weekend after Thanksgiving were Bolt in 2008 and Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire in 2005, and they both opened a week before Thanksgiving. You have to go back to The Incredibles in 2004 to find a Pixar movie released after June, but The Good Dinosaur is struggling no matter which movie you compare it to. To add more bad news, there's little in The Good Dinosaur to make it appealing for repeat viewings on home video: it's not musical, it's not quotable, it's not funny, and there's less character or costume material than in other kid-friendly films suitable for merchandising (save maybe for WALL-E, and even with less dialogue that movie had more charm than this one). On the plus side, how many other studios can say "Well, one out of 16 ain't too shabby"?
Kim Hollis: Creed, the latest film in the Rocky franchise (but with Rocky as a supporting player), earned $30.1 million over three days and $42.6 million from Wednesday-through-Sunday. It currently has $65.1 million at the domestic box office. What do you think of this result?
Jason Barney: Of all of the news over the last couple of weekends, I find the success of Creed to be the biggest story. First, the tracking had it opening close to its budget, but it blew those expectations out of the water. The film cost $35 million to make and just five days into its run it had seriously taken on the marketing and advertising costs. This sort of audience response is the gold standard for any film. When all is said and done, Warner Bros will get a tidy return on their investment. With the surprisingly strong 93% strong rating from Rotten Tomatoes, the word-of-mouth is going to be excellent. I would expect the legs to be very good. That worked out as a strong second weekend, and now Creed already has $65 million in the bank. It is going to do really well.
The other part of Creed’s notable success is we have an aging star in Sylvester Stallone, and a legit franchise that many people thought was done, being the film with buzz for the next couple of weeks. It is always good to read the stories about a star being washed up, and even near the end of his career, seeing them make films that are relevant. Is Stallone the star of Creed? No. They have continued the franchise in a way that relies on the history and institution of the main character, but still hands the torch off in a meaningful way. Truthfully, I enjoy this approach much more than remakes or reboots.
Kim Hollis: Creed well overshot all tracking estimates and will translate its fantastic word-of-mouth into a significant holiday season run. I’m not surprised at the quality – director Ryan Coogler and star Michael B. Jordan had previously collaborated on the stellar Fruitvale Station, and I hoped/presumed they would find that spark together once again. With Creed now becoming one of the pleasant financial surprises, I think we also have to consider its awards potential, particularly as 2015 has been a fairly weak year for mainstream cinema in that regard. I’d look for this one to start showing up in some power rankings and forthcoming nominations, which will only bolster its box office.
Tim Briody: This is very good and a great way to jumpstart a franchise that had finally run its course because of Sylvester Stallone's age. With its reviews, it's even got a chance at a populist Best Picture nomination thanks to how it's done so far.
Max Braden: With Rocky again serving in a mentor role to a younger fighter, Creed could have followed the box office pattern of Rocky V, which turned out to be the worst performer of the series. Creed won't come near the performance of the first three sequels when adjusted for inflation, but it will be a significant improvement over Rocky Balboa. Compared to the strong opening weekend, I'm a little surprised to see the second three-day weekend drop nearly 50%, and even though business will pick up again at Christmas, it has the misfortune of facing the Star Wars juggernaut this year. Overall, though, if this is the final entry in the Rocky franchise, Stallone will have something to be very proud of in both this movie on its own and for the series as a whole. Other than the original Star Trek cast, Stallone created one of the longest running true character arcs in cinema history and he's going out on a high note.