Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
November 10, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Ben Gruchow: This isn't bad at all, although it throws under most predictions (BOP was, I think, the closest at $74 million). In terms of tickets sold, it's less than Skyfall or Quantum of Solace, more than Casino Royale, and just a little bit more than Die Another Day (8.4 million versus 8.1). I guess I would've liked to have seen the goodwill from Skyfall extend a *little* bit further than this, but Spectre had issues way beyond keeping up momentum and utilizing goodwill. Given the budget inflation, the studio frustration, a theme song that flatlines in comparison with Adele's, etc., etc., etc., the figure could have come in $5 or $6 million lower and I don't think I'd be incredibly surprised. Still, though, we're talking about a likely $220-$230 million domestic finish, which is more than any other Bond film save Skyfall.
Edwin Davies: This is fine, given that response to the film has not been as enthusiastic as it was for Skyfall, either from critics or audiences, and Skyfall had the added advantage of coming out on the 50th anniversary of the Bond franchise, so there was a sense of occasion. Skyfall clearly boosted the profile of the Craig-led Bond series, but Sony needed to come through with a film to match the lofty expectations created, and they didn't manage it. However, the film's performance so far overseas should ensure that it meets the $750 million worldwide total that it will need to earn to see any kind of profit.
Jason Barney: This opening stateside is absolutely fine. Even though we are seven weeks away from the coveted 12 days of box office, Spectre opened within expectations. Could it have done better? Probably, but opening with $70 million is nothing to sneeze at. This is the sort of film that will still be playing on screens as we get closer to the holidays, so it will be earning a nice bit of change at the end of its run as well.
The real effort here is the global money, and if it needs somewhere in that $670-$750 million range to score a noticeable profit, then it is doing just fine. As of Sunday evening it had already collected about $300 million from all markets. It may not be as strong as the previous entry in the franchise, but barring some massive collapse, this Bond film will see a profit when all is said and done.
Bruce Hall: It really would have been difficult to match the atmosphere surrounding Skyfall, particularly with that film having been almost universally praised when it was first released. Add to this the fact that at the time, the previous entry (Quantum of Solace) had not been well received, and I think it's clear that Spectre's predecessor had the benefit of more fertile ground both critically and financially.
Still, $70 million is only just shy of what most people projected for this weekend, and it's certainly not catastrophically shy of Skyfall's opening bow. I don't see Spectre coming anywhere close to Skyfall's $300 million domestic total, so I think that in the end, the full story here is going to be told by the international box office, which is currently tracking quite well. Spectre still stands a decent chance of being the second Bond film to reach the $1 billion mark worldwide.
What will really be interesting is that the distribution rights to the Bond films will soon be up for bid, and while Sony has promised to aggressively pursue them, they're going to face some stiff competition. In light of Spectre's slightly less favorable critical reception than Skyfall, and Daniel Craig's apparent mixed feelings on continuing with the role, it will be interesting to see how that fight pans out. And if James Bond lands himself a new home, how and whether the tone of the franchise might change as a result.
Felix Quinonez: I think this is a great opening weekend and when you look at its overseas performance, Spectre is in great shape. But at the same time I believe many people will give in to the kneejerk desire to call this a disappointment. It fell short of Skyfall's opening by $15 million but I don't believe that is a completely fair comparison.
Skyfall had some things going for it that Spectre didn't. The fact that Bond's previous outing coincided with the franchise's 50th anniversary shouldn't be underestimated. Also, there was a lot more excitement for Skyfall. Some of that can be attributed to the fact that this time around Bond didn't get nearly as much critical acclaim. But Skyfall had a really killer trailer, too. I still remember the part where he adjusts his suit while hopping on to the train that is falling apart. For me, and I guess other people, the trailer for Spectre didn't really pop in the same way. It felt like more of the same.
Also, there was a four-year gap between Quantum of Solace and Skyfall, so maybe that extra year helped raise the audience excitement. And I believe it is almost universally agreed that Quantum was crap, so Skyfall was a very welcome return to form for Bond. On the other hand, Spectre had a really tough act to follow, and it didn't seem to live up to it.
Michael Lynderey: It shows that Skyfall was the outlier, and the Bond series is basically back to where it was in 2008, or, you could say, in 2002. Die Another Day, an underrated film and Pierce Brosnan's last as Bond, grossed $160 million, while Casino Royale took in $167 million and Quantum of Solace one-upped it (literally) at $168 million. I suspect Spectre will end up perhaps literally in the same ballpark - $163 million? 165? I think it's clear there's a certain ceiling on how much support Bond can get, and it requires a kind of extreme momentum to lift the numbers up from this average (in Skyfall's case, way up, to over $300 million!). I know Spectre's Cinemascore is higher than Quantum of Solace, but I don't think its legs will be all that much better - it's up against Hunger Games in two weeks, while Skyfall only had to contend against Twilight 4, a franchise that was much more limited in its appeal. Still, as is, I think Spectre has an impressive number, but this is probably another one of those series that essentially does better overseas.
David Mumpower: I agree with Mr. Lynderey that the takeaway from this isn't about Spectre. It's that Skyfall receives the benefit of great timing. People love round numbers, and 50 is arguably the most popular in double digits. Half a century meant something, and the bottom line of that film reflects the fact. Spectre had a lesser selling point, albeit a cool one with the re-introduction of a beloved character. Once word leaked that the actor playing the character wasn't in the film much, that limited its upside. If anything, I think $70 million is a solid number, all things considered.
Kim Hollis: How do you think the Daniel Craig James Bond films will ultimately be remembered?
Ben Gruchow: I never really considered this, but Craig's Bond films are possibly the only long-running franchise I can think of besides Batman where the "gritty reboot" aesthetic actually worked. I thought Casino Royale was one of 2006's best films...and even Quantum of Solace, editing and spatial horror that it was, was committed to the story thread from the previous film in a way that this franchise usually doesn't do. Because of this, I think Craig's run as Bond will be remembered relatively fondly - certainly more so than Pierce Brosnan's, whether or not that's necessarily deserved (I liked Brosnan's run, too, albeit for different reasons).
Edwin Davies: I think it'll be remembered as a largely successful attempt to bring Bond into the 21st century by cutting away the campiness and excesses of his predecessor's tenure. It took enough from other franchises (i.e. the aesthetic, and some of the technical crew, of the Bourne series), while retaining enough of the globetrotting glamour to ensure that the series didn't completely lose its identity. Basically, Daniel Craig will be remembered as a more successful version of Timothy Dalton, who tried to do the same thing with License to Kill, but went too far and wound up making a film that was indistinguishable from a lot of similar '80s action films.
Jason Barney: I think Daniel Craig's Bond will be remembered very well. Even despite Quantum of Solace, which is one of the worst of the franchise, it will be seen as successful in the long run. His presence as Bond was during the franchise's transition to true global fandom, and Skyfall was as legit hit. When all is said and done, people will look back and remember he did a good job.
Bruce Hall: Keeping in mind the fact that Mr. Craig is not officially finished with the role, I would say that his interpretation of Bond can safely be called "wildly successful." Many consider him the best Bond since Connery, if not their all-time favorite altogether. And his might be the most faithful interpretation with regard to the novels, as well.
More important, and putting the obvious financial success of his films aside for a moment, Craig's tenure has marked a maturation of the franchise, and a welcome move away from the utter silliness of the Moore and Brosnan films. Craig's Bond films have also attempted to shape the character psychologically in ways we haven't seen since the Lazenby and Dalton years. I'm not sure it's been entirely successful from a storytelling standpoint, but thematically the last four Bond films have covered a lot more ground than the rest of the series combined, and they've expanded the arc of most of the main characters - not just Bond - in some very favorable ways.
While Timothy Dalton's turn as Bond is not well remembered by most (a good actor badly miscast in some very average films), I see Craig having tried to take the character in a similar direction and having been much more successful with it. I personally consider him every bit as ideal a Bond as Connery, remembering that both interpretations are very much of their time, and therefore somewhat difficult to compare directly.
Felix Quinonez: I think Daniel Craig will be very fondly remembered for his run as Bond. He helped reinvigorate the franchise critically and took it to new heights financially.
David Mumpower: He can't act. He doesn't try to act. His Bond films were collectively terrible. If there's any justice, he won't be remembered well. Alas, they did well at the box office, and Craig's dazzling blue eyes seem to distract people away from the reality of the situation. So, they're going to be remembered well despite the fact that the *best* of the first three was mediocre. Only Spectre did anything for me as a Bond fan. So, I say good riddance to Craig. Hopefully, the next actor they cast will try to act like James Bond rather than Oddjob in a white hat.