Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
September 29, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: This is unexpected, both because sequels have struggled a bit this year to match their predecessors and because the first Hotel Transylvania didn't exactly set the world alight. It did okay and seemed warmly received by audiences, but those are not generally the building blocks of lasting success. The release date and the marketing are probably most responsible for this result, since it's been three months since Minions came out and families have been starved for options in the interim. Meanwhile the ads were well-placed to make sure that kids knew the film was coming out, and Sony invested heavily in ads aimed at Hispanic audiences, which seemed to pay dividends since they made up a sizable chunk of the audience. It looks like it will finish in the same region as its predecessor ($148.3 million), which would be a great result considering the film cost $5 million less than the first one did. If it builds overseas, then a third film can't be far behind.
Ryan Kyle: This is a great result for Sandler and Sony, who have been both searching for box office solace recently. While the lack of any family-friendly options for months surely contributed to the pop, Sony did a great job cultivating the Hotel Transylvania brand, which I had my suspicions of existing (until this weekend). I think a great comparison is Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs 2, another sequel from the same studio, which opened somewhat higher than the original and ended its run within spitting distance of its predecessor. I don't see what prevents Hotel Transylvania 2 from having this same destiny, and I'm sure a third is already in development.
Kim Hollis: I'm a little surprised that it beat the original. The first film isn't really beloved, but Hotel Transylvania certainly fills a niche that has been pretty dry for quite a while now. Although you could say that this is a feather in Adam Sandler's cap, I don't know how much credit he really deserves. I think that monsters being silly is just an appealing concept.
David Mumpower: Here's where I disagree with everyone else. I actually think that Hotel Transylvania is fondly remembered, because it's something of a rarity for a movie. It delivers exactly what the title promises. It's a genteel family film with a star playing the type of role people want from him. I was always bullish on the sequel for this reason, and it helps a lot that the ads for the film sell the core concept effectively. There's absolutely nothing fancy about Hotel Transylvania 2, which is precisely what we'd lament had it failed. Since it's excelled, I can state with confidence that more of the same is fine with films like this.
Even though I love them, I can't help but wonder if Kung Fu Panda 2 and How to Train Your Dragon 2 would have done better domestically if they'd stayed the same. Each instance would've been a horrible blow for film quality since both examples are exceptional. From a financial perspective, however, I believe the safe play can be the most lucrative, with the new September record holder exhibit A for this argument.
Kim Hollis: The Intern, a Nancy Meyers comedy featuring Anne Hathaway and Robert De Niro, earned $17.7 million this weekend. What do you think of this result?
Edwin Davies: This strikes me as a pretty strong start. Nancy Meyers' films are aimed squarely at older audiences who don't rush out on opening weekend, so for a film of hers to open near to $20 million with pretty minimal advertising speaks volumes about her continued appeal and the goodwill generated by her previous work. If it has the same legs as her last film, It's Complicated, then The Intern could wind up with around $90 million. That's unlikely since It's Complicated opened in December and benefited from Christmas viewing habits, advantages The Intern doesn't have, but $70 million seems very achievable, which would be a good result for a modestly budgeted comedy without much of a hook. It was probably a smart choice to open it in September, too, since the middling reviews might have led to it being overshadowed if it had opened in Meyers' usual December stomping ground.
Ryan Kyle: I do not have much more to offer to this discussion besides everything Edwin has already expertly pointed out. This opening sits perfectly among Nancy Meyers' other films, but the lack of a holiday period will definitely prevent it from having extraordinary multiples. I still expect strong enough legs to approach the $60 million range, though. Competition for adult audiences is more rabid than usual this year as the Oscar onslaught has started earlier; however, The Intern has the benefit of being a lighthearted comedy unlike the heavier drama fare invading theaters in the next few weeks.
Kim Hollis: Although it beat expectations, I'm not really surprised by this performance. It's the kind of bland comedy that seems to appeal to older audiences, and the familiarity of Robert De Niro really pushes it over the top. The formula continues to work for Meyers. Even though younger women seem to be turning away from rom-coms, older women seem to like the comfort food that her brand of movie offers.
David Mumpower: Apparently, I expected the least for this one. While I love De Niro, memories of The Intership were fresh in my mind as we entered last week. That's a film that skews younger, but it seemed to have more going for it on paper. It's also a fairly charming film yet it grossed less than $45 million domestically. I'm kind of shocked that The Intern is going to do this much better overall. Yes, Ms. Myers is a master of targeting the older demographic, but that usually occurs over time rather than on opening weekend. I honestly don't think De Niro gets enough credit for his box office performances since 2000. He's not bulletproof, but his track record is truly fantastic for such a venerable presence.