Monday Morning Quarterback Part III
By BOP Staff
September 17, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jason Barney: Generally I would be pretty dismissive of an opening like this, but if you look at the numbers, there is at least a chance this film will end up being profitable. The lack of Statham in the project has definitely hurt a bit, and the opening in the United States is pretty soft. It started in third place last week, during one of the weakest weekends of the year, with $13 million from American markets. That just doesn’t show a lot of support for the project. It is barely beating out Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, which has been an option for well over a month now.
All of these critical observations aside, I do think there is a path to profitability here. Transporter Refueled has already earned a good amount from overseas markets, and the budget wasn’t crazy, coming in at $22 million. The first two Transporter films basically earned equal dollars from domestic and foreign markets. It was the third film that really caught on at the international box office. You have to wonder if this is the same sort of effort here, admittedly with much smaller expectations.
Since this is coming from Europacorp, American earnings probably fit into their overall picture, but the primary thrust may very well be the international dollars.
Ryan Kyle: While I praised Broad Green and STX in the last post for their first wide releases hitting the target, I can't say the same for EuropaCorp who have finally started self-distributing with this film as their inaugural wide release. In a super saturated 3,434 theaters (probably about a 1,000 more than necessary) and with a second weekend PTA of $786, this is a terrible result. Even with Statham reprising the role, I'd be surprised if the opening was much better given his own diminishing returns and the franchise's lack of a passionate fan base.
Kim Hollis: This is really a pretty dismal result. The saving grace is the low budget, but even with overseas revenue, this one's not really going to turn any sort of profit. Jason Statham doesn't add a ton to the bottom line, really, but he is still missed.
Edwin Davies: I think that Statham's presence probably would have helped the film do better, given that it was his signature franchise and his profile is much higher now thanks to Furious 7 and Spy, but it would probably have just ended up in line with the performance of the first and third films. Adjusted for inflation, both those films sold roughly $35 million worth of tickets, with the second film seeing a sizable uptick.
With its current trajectory, Refueled looks likely to shoot under even the unadjusted final of the first film, which would be terrible if Europa weren't looking to overseas audiences for a profit. I'm not sure if that strategy will work since the Transporter name is pretty closely tied to Statham as a performer, but I don't see this result as a complete disaster since a US release always seems like something of a formality for EuropaCorp.
Kim Hollis: The Pantalion Spanish-language animated film Un Gallo con Muchos Huevos debuted last weekend with $3.4 million and has earned $6.8 million so far. What do you think about this?
Jason Barney: This doesn’t happen often, but when it does, we notice in small ways. The fact it cracked the top 10 is significant. When we notice these small veins of what Hollywood could provide for different demographics, it is at the very least interesting. The number of theaters was tiny and it did well.
Ryan Kyle: I concur with Jay. We seem to have the same discussion once every few months about a Spanish language film breaking into the top 10 seemingly out of nowhere. I really don't have much more to add than what I've said in the past outside of reiterating that it is an underserved demo that Hollywood will eventually realize has money too.
Edwin Davies: This is the latest in a series of stories about films aimed at Spanish-speaking audiences that we've seen over the last few years. While none of them have measured up to Instructions Not Included, which ended as high as #3 on the chart and earned $44.4 million back in 2013, they do consistently well (or better than expected), and it's surprising that studios haven't tried in earnest to do what they have done with faith-based films, which is try to siphon off some of that audience with their own versions of those stories. Maybe it'll happen after another Spanish-language movie breaks out in a massive way, but it's a potentially huge audience that is being completely ignored by Hollywood.
Kim Hollis: With the NFL in full swing this weekend, who are your picks to go to the Super Bowl?
Jason Barney: Patriots over Packers. Score 27-24. Tom Brady leads yet another fourth quarter comeback and then the Patriots get accused of being responsible for Watergate.
Kim Hollis: I'm going Chiefs-Packers, with the Packers winning the whole thing.
David Mumpower: I think we're going to get the dream matchup of the greatest two quarterbacks I've ever seen. I'm taking Green Bay over Denver (sorry, Tom Brady fans. It's the team more than the individual player that makes them great).