Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
June 9, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: I think this is fine, and well within McCarthy's wheelhouse as a solo performer. The stellar reviews and word-of-mouth had me hoping that the film would open closer to The Heat's $39.1 million, but then again that film had the advantage of co-starring Sandra Bullock and having a stronger trailer. The ads for Spy, while amusing, lacked a killer moment to really crystallize it as a must-see.
While it's not as high as the film perhaps deserved, it's worth noting that McCarthy's audience tends not rush out on opening weekend. The Heat, despite opening to a pretty high number, still went on to earn nearly four times its opening weekend, as did Tammy, which went from being written off as a flop in its first weekend to being a solid earner by the end of its run. If Spy follows that pattern, it could still earn more than $100 million, which is a decent result for a film that cost $65 million. Also worth noting is the film's international performance. It has so far earned $56.5 million, and its status as an action comedy means that it should easily eclipse the $70.3 million The Heat earned, and maybe even Bridesmaids' $119.3 million. When all is said and done, I'd expect for this to be another solid result for Melissa McCarthy and Paul Feig.
Felix Quinonez: It's good and it will certainly make money, but it seems like it could have been bigger. I get the feeling like they dropped the ball on the marketing. The trailers looked horrible (to me), and even the glowing reviews haven't changed my mind about how bad it looks.
Ryan Kyle: I feel like this is an okay result in my book. Having extremely glowing reviews, a cast that appeals to males just as much as females, and an action-y plot, this should have opened up closer to $40 million. If I was betting on it, I would have even guessed a $50 million opening was in store given this year's box office surprises (remember when San Andreas was only tracking for $35 million last weekend?). I'm not sure what happened here besides a marketing campaign that just didn't connect with audiences. The film only had a $65 million budget, so a $29 million opening weekend in a genre that tends to be leggy is a fine result, but I feel as if there is a lot of money left on the table here.
Kim Hollis: This result is pretty solid, considering that she had a couple of outright unpleasant films in Identity Thief and Tammy recently. People don’t forget. The marketing for Spy didn’t do much to sell it as something different or better than either of those films, so I would hazard a guess that reviews actually propelled this one forward some.
Jason Barney: I think the majority of this box office can be attributed to Melissa McCarthy achieving a certain amount of success over the last couple of years. She has her own brand now, and her run has gotten her a lot of positive attention. Going back to 2011 with Bridesmaids, she has been able to deliver raunchy lines in comedy in a way that audiences really enjoy. She was red hot when The Heat was released two summers ago, and Tammy was no box office slouch, either.
Spy probably would have achieved a certain amount of success on its own right. I don’t think the film is as good as the glowing Rotten Tomatoes rating, but it is enjoyable, and there is a lot for movie goers to embrace. We saw it this weekend. It is a solid comedy in a top ten filled with superheroes, disaster porn, and apocalyptic stories. There will be a good amount of buzz because of the supporting cast, which is very strong. Jude Law and Jason Statham are the male cast members, and they are names. Also, Rose Byrne’s resume is pretty extensive, but there are a couple of secondary characters who add much to the film. 50 cent makes an appearance, as well as Robert Cannavale from Boardwalk Empire, Miranda Hart from Call Midwife, and Allison Janney, whose long list of credits is impressive. Together, the strong performances add foundation to McCarthy’s in your face bluntness, so I imagine the holds will be exceptional….even with other comedies on the horizon.
David Mumpower: I agree that there are two competing forces here. The appeal of McCarthy and Statham drives the ticket sales, but the atrocious quality of McCarthy's films combined with Statham's tendency toward bottom feeder beat-em-ups (Furious 7 notwithstanding) counterbalances that. If anything, I'm disappointed that Spy didn't do better, because it's a great movie. We never get enough of those during the summer.
Kim Hollis: Insidious Chapter 3 debuted with $22.7 million this weekend. What do you think of this result?
Edwin Davies: It's a great result for a film with a $10 million budget, and another sign that Jason Blum knows what he's doing when it comes to putting money behind low-budget horror films. It's a noticeable step back from the second film, which earned $40.2 million on its opening weekend, but that film wasn't as well received as the first film, so anticipation might have been tempered when it came to round three, and the film being a prequel instead of a sequel probably made it seem less appetizing to casual fans of the franchise.
Felix Quinonez: Even if it's less than the last one, it's still a great opening and shows that there's still more money to be milked from this franchise. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a fourth one in a couple of years.
Ryan Kyle: I guess we should be getting ready for Chapter 4 because a $23 million opening against a $10 million budget is fantastic. Given that this is a prequel lacking the original cast and that the sequel nicely ended the Lambert family saga, expectations weren't sky high. Insidious 2 also had the benefit of opening on Friday the 13th, which turbo-charged the weekend to an extraordinary $40 million (Opening day accounted for 25% of the overall cume). With solid reviews and a lack of competition, if this film can come close to the original's $54 million gross, I think that this is a major success. Also, kudos go to Focus Features for generating a campaign outside of their usual comfort zone after being saddled with Insidious 3 when they bought FilmDistrict, the company that released the first two chapters.
David Mumpower: It's the latest example that demonstrates where to put your money if you've got some capital you want to invest in a film. Horror is where you'll maximize your profit the most. There's very little reason to have two Insidious sequels, yet audiences still flock to them.