Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
May 19, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jason Barney: While this is not the type of film I am going to spend my money on, you have to be awed by an opening like this. We are at the start of the summer box office, two weeks from Avengers opening, and Pitch Perfect 2 has pulled off something incredibly rare. If the budget information is correct, Universal spent just $30 million bringing this to screens. Now, the marketing costs are going to be in play, but err…it is extremely likely that ALL OF THE COSTS of this film were just paid for in the opening frame. A nearly $70 million dollar opening frame for a film like this? It is crazy. How many studios would love to have everything paid for before the end of the opening weekend? Everything moving forward is gravy, and there are still tens of millions of dollars to be made. This is a HUGE win for Universal and is the definitive counter-programming effort.
Universal continues to be on a very hot streak as far as box office support for their products. The sting of January’s $70 million bomb, Blackhat has worn off, and everything is flowers and happiness right now. In recent months they can celebrate such significant money earners as The Boy Next Door, Fifty Shades of Gray, Furious 7, and Unfriended. Pitch Perfect 2 should play very well over the Memorial Day frame.
Edwin Davies: The success lies in their recognition of what a phenomenon the first film became once it left theaters. The original did well, grossing $65 million domestically against a $17 million budget, but that result didn't scream out for a sequel, especially since the international take was fairly modest. Once it hit home media, it became a monster. It spawned a hit single in "Cups", a huge-selling soundtrack album that has sold 1.2 million copies since 2012, and has been a staple of cable television programming ever since. That level of success made a sequel look like a much more compelling proposition than the performance of the original might have suggested. In that respect, it reminds me of the leap in box office between the first and second Austin Powers films, where a critically liked, modestly successful film became a sensation on DVD/VHS, which in turn led to a sequel that grossed more on its opening weekend than the original did in its entire run.
In terms of Pitch Perfect 2 itself, Universal kept as many key members of the creative team behind the first film together as they could. They kept the same cast, they kept the same writer (Kay Cannon), and they not only kept Elizabeth Banks (who shepherded the first film through production) as an actor and producer, they also gave her the opportunity to direct. Clearly a lot of care was taken to make sure that the sequel didn't come off as a mercenary cash grab, but as a natural continuation of the first film's story. They probably could have rushed out a sequel without some of the key players and it would have done well, but I think going to the effort of keeping almost everyone on board paid big dividends when it came to convincing the fans that this was worth their time.
Matthew Huntley: I knew the original Pitch Perfect was a solid hit, but I was admittedly ignorant of just how popular it was (and how popular it became after it left theaters on the home market). Hence why I am kind of blown away by Pitch Perfect 2's performance over the weekend, although I had a sneaking suspicion it was going to open big based on its early international figures (I just didn't expect it to be this big). How do you explain this? Well, I think Jason and Edwin hit the nails on the head, but I would also argue that Avengers being in its third weekend helped the situation, meaning because that movie already had two weeks to itself with a different audience, it was time for Pitch Perfect 2 to roll in and become an event in and of itself, only with females dominating the crowd instead of males. In other words, there was additional build-up to Pitch Perfect 2 being a priority, and with Avengers playing less of a role in diluting the audience, the opening was able to be that much bigger. This is very impressive indeed.
Felix Quinonez: I'm really blown away by this opening. I had no idea people liked the first one so much. I really thought Pitch Perfect was a lucky accident and that it was a movie that people sort of enjoyed and forgot about. Because of this, I thought the excitement for it would have passed and this movie would have a decent opening and closed as a small hit. Obviously I was way off target. So I don't really know how they did it. But I clearly underestimated the amount of goodwill the first movie had.
Kim Hollis: As Edwin mentioned, this film really gained an audience after it was released on DVD and home video, and it offers something different and fun for young women, especially high school and college-age females, to enjoy. The audience was 72% female and 57% was under the age of 25. It’s a defining film for a generation of girls (and one they don’t have to feel embarrassed about, like, say, High School Musical).
Michael Lynderey: Congratulations to both Pitch Perfect and Mad Max for each out-grossing the totals of the last entries in their respective franchises in a single weekend ($69 million to $65 million, and $44 million to $36 million). It was a bit more unlikely for Pitch Perfect, I suppose, but Edwin's Austin Powers comparison is right on the money. That was a film that went from a $53 million total for the first installment to a $54 million OPENING for the sequel, just two years later. Personally, I was surprised at how big Pitch Perfect was even in theaters, but I didn't realize that its fan base had grown to such a significant degree that the sequel would easily take the record for the highest opening ever for a musical. It wasn't close (the second highest? High School Musical 3, with $42 million). I think the studio should strike while the iron is hot and make another film, maybe for the holiday season 2016. This brand is definitely extremely popular among its target demographic right now.
Kim Hollis: Hot Pursuit debuted last weekend with $13.9 million and has a running domestic total of $23.4 million. What do you think about the results so far for this Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara comedy?
Edwin Davies: This is pretty dire, and is something of a step back for Witherspoon as an actress since she managed to impress, both critically and commercially, with Wild last year. It's also a knock on her current track record as a producer, since she previously produced both Wild and Gone Girl. The trailers for this weren't great and the reviews were awful, and I think that at this point, following the failures of How Do You Know and This Means War, Witherspoon's name isn't so heavily associated with comedy that people would rush out to see her in anything just because she was in it. They need a compelling reason, and Hot Pursuit didn't provide one.
Michael Lynderey: Just like Mad Max (ironically), the numbers on Hot Pursuit were basically going to follow the reviews. Mad Max had a best case scenario and this one was given the exact opposite reaction. It's interesting that Hot Pursuit will probably come in under Witherspoon's Oscar movie Wild (which finished with $37 million), showing that quality still matters to some degree. And finally, it's too bad that Sofia Vergara can't seem to break out as a movie star. Both she and Witherspoon clearly deserved a better script, and Hot Pursuit could have easily been good counter-programming against Avengers and the rest. Instead, it'll just be remembered as a generic buddy movie.
Kim Hollis: I’d call it disappointing, but I’m surprised Hot Pursuit has been able to do even as well as it has. The commercials were extremely lackluster, and audiences have no recent reason to believe that Reese Witherspoon is a good comedic actress (in terms of movie-goer memory, Legally Blonde and Election were a long, long, long time ago). It looks like a blatant attempt to capture a similar audience to The Heat, and people seem to be able to sense that sort of desperation.