Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
May 5, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Matthew Huntley: Because the novelty and sense of awe surrounding the Marvel superhero movies is starting to wane, I didn't think Age of Ultron would top its predecessor as far as opening weekend figures goes, at least not domestically, so this isn't much of a surprise to me. Still, a near $200 million opening is nothing to get upset about, and I think it's an indication there's still a very high demand for this franchise and will be for years to come. Disney/Marvel might not get the bragging rights to say their latest installment broke opening records, but it's immensely successful, even amidst high expectations. On the other hand, they do get to brag that the movie's performance in foreign territories tops its predecessor, which is quite remarkable. All in all, I don't think anyone involved in the Avengers movies will be losing their job any time soon.
Jason Barney: I find it hard to agree with a term like “superhero fatigue” when we just witnessed the second largest opening for a film in the history of the business. It is weird starting off the discussion about a near $200 million plus earner (the second in the same franchise) as something that was expected or as though this was supposed to happen. Will the shine come off of Marvel’s superheroes at some point? Sure. However, right now they are on top of the world, approaching movie industry records set by themselves. That is the prism by which this discussion should flow.
Edwin Davies: I can't say I'm not disappointed that it didn't break the record set by the first film, something I predicted would happen last week as well as every week since the first Avengers opened. However, that doesn't mean that this is a disappointing result in a larger sense. This is still huge, and a sign of the strength of the franchise that it opened to within $20 million of the first film, something no film released since 2012 has achieved and, in all likelihood, no film will achieve in the near future, unless Marvels' Phase Three films ignite huge fervor for Infinity War. This is a case of a film shooting for the stars and landing on the moon.
Felix Quinonez: I don't think the fact that it didn't set a new opening weekend record is any cause to label this anything resembling a disappointment. This is an amazing opening gross. And its overseas performance is equally (if not more) impressive.
Michael Lynderey: This sub-$200 million, sub-par opening clearly proves that I was right when I said no one really wanted to see a sequel to The Avengers (the first film's plot lines were all resolved satisfactorily then, I thought). All (non-)kidding aside, this opening is notable because it indicates that a first weekend of $207 million, what the first film took in, is significant after all and likely isn't going to become a new normal for event films. It means Marvel's The Avengers will likely hold the opening weekend record for the rest of the decade, and quite possibly well beyond that. And it also puts Star Wars into heavy play to become the highest grossing movie of the year. I think a domestic total over $600 million is out of the question for Avengers 2, and the milestone it will be fighting for is $500 million. I'm thinking it'll come in under that, but they've surprised me before.
Kim Hollis: It seems oh so wrong to call a movie that debuted close to $200 million slightly disappointing, but there you have it. The international figures are spectacular, of course, and we can point to the ever-expanding nature of that market for the increased sales already. But I think there should have been some sort of similar expansion for Avengers 2. Every other Marvel film has seen a bump, after all, up to and including Guardians of the Galaxy. It's odd to me that the flagship property out of the bunch wouldn't see a similar increase.
Ryan Kyle: This is a fantastic debut. The first film's opening set the highest bar possible for an opening weekend and the fact that this opening managed to retain 90%+ of it's original opening weekend is incredible. While I was expecting a higher opening due to the sheer strength of Marvel's hype, that doesn't mean that this opening is disappointing by any means. I feel as if this film will play similarly to The Dark Knight Rises, opening in the same ludicrously high ballpark as the predecessor, but fading from the top at a more normal rate.
David Mumpower: Last week, I referenced The Dark Knight Rises as a concern, and I think that's what transpired here. The Avengers had a central point as the culmination of the storylines of several different features. Age of Ultron lacked that asset. I maintain that it had an equally strong one if marketed perfectly, which is effectively The Avengers versus Terminator. The ads didn't stress this as much as I had hoped, though. I also felt that Disney was a bit arrogant with the marketing campaign, not pushing this film as hard as they have with other releases, particularly Guardians of the Galaxy. They decided that they were free rolling with the sequel to the biggest opener of all-time, so they chose not to add to the negative cost with a massive marketing campaign.
Just as was the case with The Dark Knight Rises, we're now left trying to explain a film effectively matching its predecessor rather than surpassing it by a great deal. There's nuance to the explanation as well. While ticket price inflation would (mis)lead one to believe that Age of Ultron should have earned more, this is the result of the dangerous game the MPAA has played in pretending like there hasn't been a dramatic increase in ticket prices.
When 3D and IMAX sales were a juggernaut, they acted like there wasn't a spike. Now, Age of Ultron suffers from lower actual revenue per ticket sold yet it looks like it should be the beneficiary or higher ticket revenue. In reality, as odd as this may sound, the 2012 title had stronger performance per ticket sold than its sequel three years later. That's the endgame of 3D movie saturation. So, a lot worked against Age of Ultron in addition to the fact that it's the inferior movie to its predecessor, which hurts it more long term (at least domestically) than it does on opening weekend.
Max Braden: I'm not so willing to be congratulatory. Each of the sequels to Iron Man, Thor, and Captain America earned a larger opening weekend than their initial installments. Beating the number one record ever is a high bar but it shouldn't be out of reach for something like The Avengers 2. Response to the first Avengers was great. Response to the most recent solo project Captain America: The Winter Soldier was great. Fan response to the television show tie-in has been great. Buzz has been building not only for this movie as a sequel, but also for its place in the continuing cinematic universe, and advertising and promotion was everywhere. Up until and through midnight sales Avengers 2 looked like a fairly sure thing to beat the opening record. To go from an expectation of over $210 million to $190 million actual is a 10% drop. That's significant. I think you can blame PPV sales for Mayweather-Pacquiao, possible concerns about the strength of reviews, but whatever's to blame, it's like Wall Street - positive isn't positive unless you meet expectations. This movie should have had the record and it failed. Just that knowledge can throw a seed of doubt into audience's minds and affect future MCU box office earnings.