Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
April 29, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: In terms of the Dark Knight Rises comparison, it's probably worth pointing out that film had a couple of disadvantages that Age of Ultron doesn't (or, in the case of one of them, hopefully won't). Firstly, TDKR was shot in 2D, and while it did have a pretty wide-scale IMAX release, that wouldn't have given it the bump or the reach that a 3D release has. Secondly, the release of TDKR was overshadowed by the horrible shooting in Aurora, which occurred at an early screening and could very well have convinced people to stay away from the theaters that weekend. We can't say for certain that the film would have broken the opening weekend record without that event - again, there is a ceiling on how much money a 2D release can make - but it probably would have done better.
The biggest difference between two, for me, is that while anticipation for the TDKR had been building in the four years since The Dark Knight came out, Warner Bros. could only stoke excitement for it so much because they could not put out other Batman-related films in that time. Audiences have been reminded of the Age of Ultron constantly since 2012, since we've had three Marvel movies that functioned as direct sequels (Iron Man 3, Thor: The Dark World and Captain America: The Winter Soldier) and one that just reminded them that Marvel are pretty adept at this whole blockbuster game (Guardians of the Galaxy). Everyone has been primed for The Avengers to re-assemble, and I think that will ensure that it makes at least $200 million next weekend, and there is a very, very good chance that it surpasses its predecessor, if only by a couple of million. Even if it doesn't, it's still going to be huge.
Felix Quinonez: I don't believe the DKR comparison is either accurate or necessary. As Edwin pointed out, DKR did have disadvantages with its lack of 3D premiums but more important, the tragic events in Aurora had a huge impact on its box office performance. So it wasn't just a case of a movie failing to meet expectations. And as far as the quality, that's obviously subjective, and I would argue that it did meet, and exceed, expectations. And its "A" Cinemascore and its reviews (88% at Rotten Tomatoes) suggest that a lot of people would agree.
As far as Age of Ultron goes, it's obviously going to be huge but I find it hard to believe it can top the $207 million opening of the first one. I think the movie looks amazing and will be seeing it more than one time but how much higher can it really go? At one point there has to be a ceiling. And it hasn't been that long since the first movie, so inflation won't be such a big factor. Also I have to wonder how much of an impact the novelty factor had on the first one. So I'm predicting it will open right around $200 million (maybe a little less) but it won't hold up as well as the first one, at least domestically.
Jason Barney: I don't think the comparisons between The Dark Knight Rises and Avengers: Age of Ultron are the ones to make. While the anticipation for the Batman movie might have been big, I think the real comparison to stay with is the first Avengers.
That is the real story. If Avengers 2 opens to less, it is still going to be in the ballpark of $200 million, which is just insane. If you go through the money earned each weekend, most don't even come close to $200 million for the top 10 movies. If the second Avengers movie breaks $200 million it will simply be a mark of how excepted and how dominant Disney's story telling is right now. That is the crazy part of this. We are not talking about Transformers or Twilight and super silly writing, we are talking about good story telling for the most part. For both Avengers films to break the $200 million plateau, Disney just adds another feather to its cap since its purchase of Marvel.
It is going to be huge.
Ryan Kyle: Everyone above me made great points. Marvel has proven that the laws of box office physics don't apply to its universe.
I believe that it will open higher than the original, by some, but not much. However, even if it does open below, it will still make a ridiculous sum of money that it is a moot point to even discuss it flopping. My guess is $225 million opening weekend with a much quicker erosion for a $475 million-ish total.
Honestly, it feels ridiculous even typing in those numbers as real predictions. Marvel has nothing to sweat over.
Michael Lynderey: The box office of these mega-mega-mega-blockbusters has long ago stopped interesting me. When something like Avengers opens, I read the token gushy statistics (Avengers just broke the record for biggest fourth day ever!), look at my watch, and move on. Wake me when Hot Pursuit gets here! Now there's a movie I'm curious about. Will Reese Witherspoon's newfound respect from Wild translate to comedy? Is Sofia Vergara a draw? These are questions. Whether Avengers grosses $560 million instead of $590 million (I say $575 million) doesn't gnaw at me as much.
Kim Hollis: I think it's a foregone conclusion that the film earns more than $200 million and likely more than the first film as far as opening weekend. I do think that we're seeing some evidence of a slight backlash against Avengers - the reviews for this film aren't as glowing (though still good), the Black Widow stuff doesn't make for good optics (both the comments from Chris Evans and Jeremy Renner and the fact that Disney doesn't have much merchandise featuring the heroine), and you get a sense that perhaps people are just a little weary of superheroes in general. I think this in no way impacts opening weekend, but like with most sequels, I think we see a deflated overall domestic total. It's going to be the domination overseas, of course.
David Mumpower: I do think that superhero fatigue is a problem already and will only become more of one in future years. I'd feel stronger about that if I believed DC could become a viable threat to Marvel in the movie realm. Since there is a clear pecking order in terms of quality, I see The Avengers: Age of Ultron as the titan of the summer, but I consider Star Wars 7 a larger project overall. Avengers 2 is going to have the biggest box office debut of the year domestically due to Star Wars 7 having a calendar-causing box office deflation for opening weekend with its December launch. I expect it to surpass the first film by quite a bit while failing to meet expectations, just as transpired with The Dark Knight Rises. I understand why people here defend it, but if you ask the average movie fan if it was good enough to satisfy several years of expectations, their honest answer is no. That's because it's nearly impossible to make consecutive movies that meet expectations. I have faith in Joss Whedon. It's the fickle movie-going public who I think are the culprit here.