Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
May 15, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: Internationally, I think that the Fast and Furious series is way ahead of The Hunger Games, since the last two installments outstripped the last two outings for Katniss, and I'd be willing to bet that Furious 7 will end up with a higher international number than Mockingjay Part 2, but domestically I think it's harder to judge. Hunger Games always had a finite story with a clear endpoint (even if they decided to push it back a year by splitting the last film in half), so it's had the opportunity to shine very brightly for a short period of time. The Fast and Furious series has built its audience over more than a decade, and while I think that this entry will put it closer to the rarefied air of The Hunger Games and other super blockbusters, I'm not sure if it will be able to maintain that past this film without the extraordinary circumstances that made its success possible.
Felix Quinonez: I think that internationally, The F&F series has eclipsed the Hunger Games but domestically I see it finishing closer to Mockingjay Part 1 than Catching Fire.
Ryan Kyle: They are two different beasts. Hunger Games is a definitive franchise based on books. The Fast and Furious franchise is open-ended and not based on any novel that you can read beforehand to know what happens. Overseas, Furious is by far the winner. Domestically, Hunger Games trounces Fast with the three Hunger Game films outgrossing the first six Fast movies. Also, Hunger Games makes its real money in product licensing in a way that Furious will never match.
Michael Lynderey: They occupy different spaces in the culture and their receptions, while intersecting on the same level now, will go back onto different roads soon enough. As much as I like the Fast franchise (and prefer it to Hunger Games, which I like also), this result is definitely a one-off, and I think the next film (if there is one) will open to lower numbers. While the Hunger Games films are just continuously massive simply due to the nature of their existence and fanbase, the Fast and the Furious films have come down a long and winding road since the 1955 release of the original film (which had nothing to do with the current franchise, but the studio did have to formally secure the rights to the title). In many ways, I expect the Fast films to outlive the other franchise, at least in so much as we could still be talking about a new sequel ten years from now.
Kim Hollis: The Longest Ride, the latest adaptation of a Nicholas Sparks novel, opened to $13 million. What do you think of this result?
Felix Quinonez: I think this is a fine result. Without any big names or a release date that benefits a "date movie" it would have been unrealistic to expect it to really break out. When you add in the fact that this seems like the millionth Sparks adaptation and that it has horrible reviews, it could have been a lot worse.
Ryan Kyle: This is a fine gross for what was probably the most decent of expectations. Without a Valentine's Day release or a big name star in the lead, a $13 opening is passable. Sparks' films tend to be leggy and unless Age of Adaline is a real deathblow, a finish a bit below $40 million shouldn't be out of reason. The 10% Friday-to-Saturday drop is a bit concerning, but the date night rush could have inflated the numbers.
Edwin Davies: I'll echo Felix and Ryan and say that this is fine. It's doing better than last year's The Best of Me, the first Sparks adaptation in a while to really underperform in a big way, and it managed to do so despite starring two relative unknowns. Reviews are terrible but audiences seem to like it, so I imagine that it'll end up being a decent earner, though I imagine that the options on future Sparks novels will be a bit lower than they have been in the past since his brand is no longer a guaranteed drawer.
Michael Lynderey: I am disappointed, actually. I was surprised that Sparks' The Best of Me wasn't bigger last October, and I'm somewhat even more surprised this time around (though Longest Ride is ahead of of the previous Sparks film). This title had a more epic aura about it, as well as some choice rising stars (Scott Eastwood received a lot of hype online), and it had the weekend all to itself. Maybe the Sparks peak era (Dear John through Safe Haven) is behind us, or perhaps it's that that former film has inflated my expectations for how popular his work is. By the way, The Longest Ride, released in 2013, is actually Sparks' last book to date, and they're going back to his older titles for the next film adaptation, The Choice (scheduled for January). If the trend continues, I think The Choice will open to single digits. But you never know.
Kim Hollis: Woman in Gold expanded to 1,504 theaters and earned $5.5 million. What do you think of this result?
Ryan Kyle: I have honestly not even heard of this film until last weekend. For a drama with the very odd pairing of Ryan Reynolds and Helen Mirren (not much fan overlap there) and made for a rumored $11 million, $5.5 million from 1,504 theaters is a win. This also marks a successful expansion, nearly tripling its $2 million haul from opening weekend in only 258 venues. With what I imagine is a light marketing push, Weinstein company managed to service the audience looking for an arthouse film outside of the usual winter months. If another expansion takes hold next weekend, a finish upwards of $20 million can be a reality. The reviews have been so-so at only 52% on RottenTomatoes, but without any star-lead Oscar-bait-looking dramas in the marketplace, this seemed good enough to make do for some.
Edwin Davies: This is a good example of counter programming and going after the older audience at a time when releases are geared towards teens. Between this and The Hundred Foot Journey, Helen Mirren has established herself as a draw for audiences who want to see a drama with a light touch and the appearance of quality.
Michael Lynderey: There's no question that Helen Mirren is a draw. While not an absolute guarantee, her name above the title brings out a certain demographic, and we've seen her films perform to above-average numbers almost every time one is given a serious release and decent marketing: The Debt, The Hundred-Foot Journey, and even going back to Calendar Girls. Reviews weren't so great on Woman in Gold, but it's a crowd-pleasing and life-affirming movie that I'm not surprised to see is playing well as counter programming to bigger films.