Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
March 11, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com

I think we get the (three) point.

Kim Hollis: The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel had the top venue average amongst top 12 films this weekend, earning $8.5 million. What do you think of this result?

Jason Barney: I find this opening pretty interesting in that the first one was such a nice, quiet success, I never would have expected a sequel. In today’s world, when a film makes money, a continuing story and an effort to bring in more cash almost always happens, so I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. The original came out of nowhere and was one of the best success stories over the last couple of years. Made for only $10 million, it took $138 million worldwide, so the investment in a film that focused on elderly characters on vacation actually worked really nicely.

I honestly don’t know what the prospects for this one will be. The budget information is scarce, but an opening of $8 million has to be pretty good when everything is taken into account. I can’t imagine this was made for much more than the original. Also, we are talking about a film targeted at a very specific demographic and it likely is not going to replicate the run of the original. However, I don’t think the hope ever was for a smashing opening weekend, I mean, families with kids aren’t taking Grandma out to see this. I think the hope is that the holds are really good, and we are talking about The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel hanging around in the top ten for several weeks. I don’t know if that will happen, and I doubt it captures the excitement of the original, but in the long run this could be another nice success.

Michael Lynderey: The sub-genre that The Full Monty launched all those years ago (quirky elderly British people set loose on society) is going as strong as it ever was. I like to compare Marigold and Marvel's The Avengers since they opened on the same day (they also happen to be very similar films, although Marigold has the better villain and is actually pretty watchable). Curiously, the sequels weren't scheduled up against each other. In any case, Marigold 2, true to its title ("Second Best"), isn't as well reviewed as the first one (78% for the first and 64% for the second), and it will almost certainly make less money (part one finished with $46 million, and I'd peg part two at maybe $25 million). So the question is, will The Avengers sequel show a similar depreciation? And are we getting a third hotel picture? I would guess yes to the first question and no to the second. Still, Marigold is unquestionably going to do very well internationally and domestically, and regardless of it being less well received, it's still a solid win for all involved. The same will likely soon be true of Age of Ultron.

Ryan Kyle: The first film worked as phenomenal counter programming to The Avengers and I suppose Fox Searchlight assumed that a March release would have given Marigold enough space to not play second banana this time around. However, an unusually R-rated heavy beginning of the year has given the adult quadrant plenty of choices compared to when the first Marigold opened. This is a fine opening, but I can't help but expect there is a tinge of disappointment that this didn't crack the low-teens. Best case scenario is that the film reaches $30 million, which is a hefty depreciation from the first one's $46 million total. However, overseas box office should be strong like the first, making this film a decent investment but not extraordinary like before.

Kim Hollis: This is just about what you'd expect from a sequel to a modestly successful art house film. Or maybe it's not. Perhaps the shock is that the movie was made at all and that we're talking about it after a pretty solid debut weekend. No, it's not going to have quite the same earning potential that the original Magnolia Hotel did, but it definitely speaks to its audience. It's going to be an earner for the studio.

Edwin Davies: This is a perfectly fine result. Considering that the first one was a word-of-mouth success that didn't really demand a sequel, it's not too big of a surprise that the follow-up opened well (i.e. because a lot of people saw and like the first one) but wasn't exactly a smash (the fanbase for the film probably weren't THAT passionate about the first one). If the film skews older like the first did, then I could see it getting close to the original's final tally, though the wider release means that it'll be in danger of losing screens as we move into blockbuster season, a fate that the first one avoided by always performing really well on a small number of screens. It's doing better overseas than the first did at this point, and the budget doesn't appear to have ballooned too much, so even if it fails to crack $40 million domestically it should still make out okay.

Kim Hollis: Vince Vaughn's Unfinished Business earned just $4.8 million as it finished in 10th place for the weekend. What has happened to Vaughn?

Jason Barney: Unfinished Business arrived into the market place with a trailer that wasn’t funny and with an actor who hasn’t done well for a couple of years. I think the writing should have been on the wall. Personally, the only interesting part of the lead up to this film was the involvement of Tom Wilkinson, who is a very underrated actor. Everything else was in the blah range.

I don’t want this to come across as too harsh, but I have never seen the appeal of Vince Vaughn and I don’t understand why people think he is that funny. At all. I don’t enjoy his roles, and I am surprised studios continue to roll the dice on him. His recent track record is pretty uninspiring. Delivery Man did okay, but The Internship flopped badly. The Watch did even worse. The Dilemma didn’t do very well either. His last real significant money maker was Couples Retreat and that was back in 2009. That is saying something.

Michael Lynderey: For the record, while this likely finally reveals me as a space alien, I prefer Vaughn's recent The Internship (very funny) and Delivery Man (it works) to his Old School, Starsky & Hutch, Wedding Crashers, The Break-Up, Fred Claus, Four Christmases, and Couples Retreat. That is a remarkable series of hits, although the last four films I mention don't have a lot of fans. Vince Vaughn himself is simply following the career pattern of basically every single major comedic leading man in film history - some little-seen but perhaps well-reviewed early work, a series of massive juggernaut hits, and then an inevitable number of flops. Many such careers have comeback phases, and that's what Vaughn has to be looking for. Luckily, he has an avenue, since he's one of the leads in the second season of True Detective. Perhaps that will help Vaughn re-invent himself as a dramatic actor, which couldn't be too hard since that's exactly what he was before Old School re-drew the map. As for Unfinished Business, I thought it had potential, but once the reviews came in (it's among Vaughn's worst films) there wasn't anything that could be done and the film was a non-starter. Let's put it in the past now. I have faith that Vaughn will turn this around.

Ryan Kyle: Michael just gave a summation that I will have only repeated. Vaughn had a brilliant career start in a diverse number films spanning the genres. He found his most successful part was in comedy and cultivated a fan base through a series of strong films. He then seemed to get lost by taking the biggest paycheck instead of the best project and like many comedians who followed that path (i.e. Adam Sandler, Eddie Murphy), his audience stopped coming since they only got disappointments instead of laughs.

The trailer to this film really didn't seem all that appealing and given Vaughn's recent track record, audiences decided not to chance it. Vaughn's best career move would be to do a drama or play a supporting part in a strong comedy. True Detective is a great resurgence opportunity for him.

Edwin Davies: A lack of variety is probably what has hurt Vaughn's career in the long run, even though it was precisely the thing that made him a star to begin with. He perfected his motormouth persona in Swingers, then deployed in to great effect in Old School, Dodgeball and Wedding Crashers. At a certain point, the audience outgrew him (unsurprising given that a lot of his early fans would have been teenagers or men in their early-20s) while he continued to play arrested adolescent characters, something which was funny when he was in his early 30s but which became kind of desperate once he hit 40. The same thing happened to Adam Sandler and Eddie Murphy, to an extent, but they both shifted into wackier, more high-concept stuff that prolonged their lifespans as bankable stars. Vaughn's adherence to reasonably grounded comedy (i.e. the kind that doesn't require him to wear a fat suit or get magical powers or whatever) has limited his options, so he's stuck making the same old shit.

This makes his upcoming turn on True Detective all the more interesting, since a successful shift into drama, or at least a darker form of comedy, could provide him with opportunities to try something new.

Kim Hollis: I think that we've seen all of the frat pack experience a decline with regard to popularity, which makes yesterday's official announcement of Zoolander's return in 2016 interesting. Ben Stiller, Owen Wilson, Jack Black and Will Ferrell have all had ever decreasing returns in their films, and Vaughn may be the worst off of all of them. Stiller at least has a franchise or two to play with (Night at the Museum 3 was down from the first two, but still a solid performer). Wilson has worked in a lot of quirky, well-received projects that haven't been huge at the box office, but have been popular with critics (Midnight in Paris, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Inherent Vice). Ferrell will have Get Hard coming soon, and we'll probably all be circling back around to this conversation again at that point.

Nonetheless, I'm pretty excited to see Vaughn in True Detective. I really, really like him and want him to find the kind of roles that allow him to shine.