Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
February 18, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com

We're guessing it's the shoes.

Kim Hollis: Do you believe that either Dakota Johnson or Jamie Dornan will be able to leverage 50 Shades of Grey into a more substantial career either in film or television?

Edwin Davies: In both cases, I feel like the success of this film could be as much a blessing as a curse. Obviously it's got their names out there and their faces on magazine covers and TV screens, which could potentially open a lot more doors for them in the future. However, both were so little-known prior to being cast in the film that it could be hard for people to think of them as actors separate from their involvement in a hugely successful but largely derided film (which will now almost certainly become a hugely successful but largely derided trilogy). The obvious comparison, again, is Twilight, which made Kristen Stewart and Robert Pattinson household names, allowed them to work with a lot of great and interesting directors, but also means that they are primarily known in the popular consciousness as Edward and Bella, and also has resulted in them being (unfairly) considered bad actors, as opposed to good actors who were working with very bad material.

Dornan already has a critical following from his work on The Fall, which is a show that seems to get a lot of love from industry types and is probably a better showcase for his skills as an actor than Fifty Shade of Grey, where the nature of the character seems to be pretty one-note. I imagine that he'll probably do fairly well, particularly if he goes the same route that Robert Pattinson did after Twilight and pursues a career in smaller movies. Then again, he's a very good looking guy, and could probably segue into a career as a leading man pretty easily.

Johnson I think could have a more difficult time, primarily because she is less of a known quantity than Dornan (which isn't saying much, but headlining a critically acclaimed TV show is better than nothing) and so might have trouble escaping what will surely be seen as her signature role. But there seems to be a general consensus that she is one of the better things about the film, so it's probably a better advertisement for her abilities as an actress than it is for Dornan.

Felix Quinonez: I think it's really up to the actors. I have no doubt that this will give them a higher profile but it really depends on the roles they choose and how good they are at it.

Michael Lynderey: Yes, definitely. Much like Kristen Stewart and Robert Pattinson, their futures simply depend on what kind of films they choose to appear in and how well they leverage their franchise success. Dakota Johnson and Jamie Dornan will have to partake in two more Grey movies (assuming they don't split the last book into three parts), but otherwise they both already have some movies lined up here and there, and I'm sure after this weekend they'll have no trouble getting more. Their foot's certainly well into the door. Now it's up to them to prove themselves, and I think they will. In fact, one of the things that struck me while watching Fifty Shades of Grey is how the leads seemed like such nice people, so much so that it was almost a shame they couldn't forget all this nonsense about the chains and whips and just go on a date together. The burden of the plot seemed almost forced upon them by some malevolent forces; you wished them better things. I think they'll get there.

Kim Hollis: I wonder if the stigma of being attached to this project won't hurt both of them to some degree. It's probably true that they'll have the best chance of success if they follow the Pattinson/Stewart model and focus on small-scale releases rather than hoping for involvement in big blockbusters as a lead. Neither one of them strikes me as interesting or memorable, though.

Ryan Kyle: Being the lead to a major franchise is a coup for anyone (even if it is about BDSM). Their names attached to an independent project can now get it financed, so hopefully each will make some interesting choices for career longevity. However, both of the actors are about 10 years older than unknowns Robert Pattinson and Kristen Stewart when they broke out with Twilight, so it will be an interesting case study to see if how their fan base grows when it won't be pre-teen girls blowing up their social media status.

David Mumpower: I see the entire situation differently from the rest of you. Dornan is a bland lead who will be widely remembered as a lousy Christian Grey. He's Brandon Routh without the dimples. Well, he may have dimples. It's hard to tell with bearded dudes. Dakota Johnson, on the other hand, is Hollywood royalty. Her mother, father *and* grandmother are all famous actors. At the age of 25, she has already anchored a television show and now frontlined a blockbuster movie that will wind up being a franchise. She's going to be a factor in this business. Dornan is more likely to be a punchline.

Kim Hollis: Kingsman: The Secret Service earned $36.2 million this weekend. What do you think of this result?

Edwin Davies: This is pretty fantastic. Even if the film hadn't opened in the shadow of Fifty Shades of Grey, which makes its ability to stand out impressive in its own right, this would still be a very good result for an R-rated movie based on not especially well known material. Chalk this one up to a sleek and fun ad campaign for what looks like a sleek and fun film (something which has been borne out by the fairly strong reviews), as well as the smart choice to cast Colin Firth in a role that played off his established persona in a way that was pretty fresh and inventive. It's going to have to work a little to recoup its budget of $81 million, which seems a little steep for the first film in a prospective franchise, but with this opening, strong word-of-mouth and what looks like a decent run overseas, it should end up as a very solid win.

Jason Barney: I find the breakout success of Kingsman: The Secret Service interesting. It is a fairly expensive project, put together for $81 million. While this alone isn’t crazy expensive for an action adventure film, it is a bit of a risk considering it is being put out there during a usually slow month with a star who has no real action credits on his resume. All of this is academic, though, because this opening is on the high end of everyone’s expectations. Kingsman is going to be a very nice success story.

Also, the counter-programming here ends up being fantastic. Fifty Shades of Grey will certainly grab all of the headlines for being the Valentine’s Day movie of the weekend, but Fox has done something that ended up being very smart. Kingsman played like a date movie. I know it sounds weird considering this is in the action-adventure genre, but plenty of women were perfectly fine going to see Colin Firth on the big screen on Valentine’s Day. Yes, it was the choice of males, but I think Firth’s female following goes seriously underestimated.

For Firth, this will go in the range of his biggest projects and will continue to cement his overall appeal. The guy’s career is populated by smaller projects that do fine, plus occasional hits that garner a lot of attention. He appeared in three films in 2014, none of them opening on more than 2,000 screens. Two of those were less than a thousand screens. His largest success was the King’s Speech, which was wildly successful five years ago. Put together for only $15 million it earned over $400 million worldwide and earned him an Academy Award for best actor. Prior to that his work in Mamma Mia! brought in over $600 worldwide, so the guy has a pretty good track record of success. He has been known as a serious actor but putting his feet into the action genre has worked out for him.

Felix Quinonez: I think this is a great opening. It seemed to me like the movie might be a little too weird for audiences. And even though it's counter programming to 50 Shades I had concerns that Kingsman would suffer because literally EVERYONE was only talking about 50 Shades. I thought it might get lost in the shuffle but I'm glad to see that wasn't the case. I think this opening puts it on a road to profitability and is a win for Matthew Vaughn. And I'm a big fan of his work.

Ryan Kyle: This year has really been feast or famine at the box office. I was expecting a more middling result here, but instead Kingsmen opened up higher than even the most optimistic predictions. If this wasn't in the shadow of Fifty Shades, this would be the box office story of the week. The marketing did an excellent job making this film look appealing and the globe-trotting cast will assure a good overseas run. It looks like two franchises have been launched this Valentine's Day weekend. With no competition next week, it will be interesting to see how well this holds (it could even wind up at #1 if Fifty drops hard enough and none of the new releases break out). Overall, it's been a great year for R-rated films at the box office.

David Mumpower: I've been sold on this one since the first trailer. Whoever had the idea to use blades at the end of leg implants deserves 10% of the profits here. What a genius concept for an action film.

Kim Hollis: It's a terrific result, especially considering that it was trying to play as counter-programming. I think we can chalk the success up to a nifty looking trailer and ads that really focused on the stylish look of the film. It looked cool without looking dumb (i.e. Jupiter Ascending). I can be ambivalent about Matthew Vaughn because of the violence in some of his films, but when he's at the top of his game, I really enjoy his projects. It looks like Kingsman has a little of the good and a little of the bad where he's concerned, but at the least that makes it a really interesting movie.