Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
February 17, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: In terms of 2015 box office so far, I'd put Fifty Shades of Grey in the same category as SpongeBob Squarepants (I only hope that streaming services don't do the same in the future, otherwise they're going to get some angry emails from parents) in that they're both films that have had stronger opening weekends than I personally expected, but neither defied expectations in the way that American Sniper did. I always thought that Fifty Shades of Grey, with its cultural ubiquity and passionate fan base, could break out in a big way much like its literary and cinematic predecessor Twilight did back in 2008, and this is towards the upper end of those expectations, but it's not exactly mind-blowing.
What is most impressive is the marketing, which was geared towards the target audience but kept enough details (chiefly the Red Room) hidden that people would be enticed to see the film in a theatre, and the way that Universal leveraged the release date to take advantage of Valentine's Day to offset any front loading from Friday. I'd be surprised if the film holds up terribly well in the weeks ahead since the audience response has been very negative, by and large, but when you double your production budget in the first three days - and that's not even getting into the fact that the film earned almost twice as much overseas this weekend as it earned in the US - not even the steepest drop will prevent the film from being a hugely profitable enterprise for everyone involved.
Jason Barney: I think the best way to define the success of this project is to lump it in with the other very successful book to movie efforts over the last decade. Books will always find a different type of media when moved to film. Sometimes they are successful, sometimes not so much. Tom Clancy and Nicholas Sparks might be examples of mid-level success. The gold standard appears to have been matched here. Harry Potter, The Hunger Games, Twilight, and to a certain extent the Divergent series are the most recent examples.
The success is undeniable. When the final numbers are in this will be Focus Features' most profitable effort. It is not that they have been on the edge of obscurity, but their projects are usually not put out there for the sole purpose of making money. Usually they bring out stories like Brokeback Mountain, Burn After Reading, The Place Beyond the Pines, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, and Moonrise Kingdom. Most of these are small and successful, but rarely light the world on fire.
All of this is going to change with the success of Fifty Shades of Grey. This is going to be the type of earner for them, with a budget in the $40 million range, that puts some serious savings in the bank. Even if the film is terrible, and I mean the story telling, not the content, it is not going to matter. Fifty Shades of Grey will surpass its budget sometime during the early afternoon shows on Saturday. By the time Sunday night comes around, it will have seriously eaten into is marketing and advertising costs. Along the way, it will have set the record for largest opening in February, and anything it earns after this weekend is gravy. This is the type of success that allows a studio to spread there wings and be more aggressive with future projects.
Felix Quinonez: I think this opening is simply stunning. Any time a movie makes more than double its budget on opening weekend, it's hard to call it anything other than a huge success. I knew that that books were huge but that doesn't always translate to blockbuster movies. It wouldn't be the first "literary phenomenon" to fail at the box office. But that wasn't the case and now it's certain that the other two books will be adapted into movies, with the third book probably split into two movies.
But as successful as it's already been, I can't help but wonder what would have happened if the movie was actually good. I know they've already made a lot of money but the reviews and cinemascore (C+) suggest that it won't have strong legs. It would have been interesting to see how big it could have been if the movie was good enough to live up to the hype. But I'm almost positive it will burn out.
Matthew Huntley: Fifty's opening was more or less in line with my expectations and I agree with everyone's assessment on why it was as successful as it was. It's just a shame the movie was so dull and inconsequential, because we are now poised to get the other two books adapted to the big screen (and hopefully the studio won't feel the need to turn the last book into two parts like every other series this day and age). I am looking forward to next weekend to see if it breaks the record for worst drop-off. I have a feeling it might, not only because of its scathing reviews, but also because it's coming off a holiday weekend and because its numbers are probably very front-loaded.
Michael Lynderey: Not to be snarky or cynical, but I'm really not particularly impressed (and it's nothing against the film, which I thought wasn't bad). I just think such openings have become the norm, rather than the exception, for these book adaptations with the huge (I dare not say "passionate") followings, the built-in anticipation, etc. The book was still big enough in the minds of its base, and the filmmakers made no discernible errors in bringing it to the screen. If Twilight could open with $69 million, then I could not think of a reason why Fifty Shades would not open in the $65 million - $85 million range for three days. The Twilight opening was incredibly shocking at the time, and while Fifty Shades came in slightly on the higher end of my expectations, I'm otherwise thoroughly desensitized when it comes to how high brand name movies open these days. American Sniper was bewildering, even SpongeBob, too. Fifty Shades is a gimme.
Ryan Kyle: This opening is stunning, although expected given the massive pre-sales. Universal did an amazing job embracing this film as something that people shouldn't be embarrassed about seeing. Their licensing department rivaled Disney in terms of slapping the logo on everything and anything so that the 50 Shades presence was present everywhere you looked. It was too big to fail, although the drop next weekend will come close to Friday the 13th (2009) for sharpest President's Day Weekend declines. Especially with a C+ Cinemascore, I doubt there are many repeat viewings to be seen. However, with an opening that has already doubled its production budget and a giant overseas haul, expect this franchise for many more Valentine's Day weekends to come.
Kim Hollis: This debut was pretty close to being in line with my expectations, not so much because it was an adaptation of a popular book series as has been mentioned here, but once again because it's a project that specifically targets women. There are so few offerings that truly excite that demographic. When one does come along, they support it in droves. This audience was 68% female (presumably the remaining 32% was mostly dudes on Valentine's dates) and 25+. It's weird to imagine that a movie like this would be the activity for a girls' night out, but that is exactly what seems to have happened. I have no idea how the studio maintains this kind of momentum for additional films in the series (particularly with the dismal word-of-mouth), but kudos to them for generating this kind of bank.
David Mumpower: Tim Briody was forced to pinch-hit on the box office forecast at the last minute on Thursday when Reagen got sick. When he asked me whether his estimate was too optimistic, I told him that he had basically forecasted the same amount as I felt the film would do. After Friday, he both wondered if we had been too optimistic, but we appreciated that those Fandango pre-sales were still clearly not being accounted for yet. By close of business Saturday, it was readily apparent that 50 Shades was, if anything, underestimated. I think that says everything about the perfect timing of this release.
On previous Valentine's Day weekends, we've seen garbage romances overachieve. This past weekend felt like a more honest variation of that behavior. Everyone dropped the pretext and went all-in on sex rather than romance. The end result is that a hard R bondage film released in February has just outperformed The Passion of the Christ. I won't crib Edwin's joke above, but it's pretty funny that these two films will be linked indefinitely at the top of the February opening weekend charts. Imagine the Venn Diagram on that intersecting audience.
Otherwise, I feel the same about 50 Shades as I do of the work that inspired its original fan fiction. I could care less about Twilight or this, but I still admire the box office performances of each one. They are both unequivocal blockbusters despite having limited appeal to men. That's another win for the Hollywood bean counters who are employing big data to discover untapped niches (don't make it dirty, people).