Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
January 21, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: It definitely increases them in that it gives the film more buzz and visibility, though I think it might be too little, too late. It gives the race a shot of adrenaline, but Boyhood has such momentum and is such a bigger achievement that I think American Sniper will struggle to get traction at this late stage. It's also worth considering that the film did not land a Best Director nomination, and it's still rare for a film without that to win Best Picture. I know Argo did it two years ago, but that was a different case since that film had been a big part of the awards conversation for months, whereas American Sniper was barely in the conversation four days ago.
Most likely this result will improve the film's chances of winning some of the other Oscars that it is nominated for. Michael Keaton's win for Birdman looks a little less certain than it did a few days ago.
J. Don Birnam: I agree with Edwin - the movie just guaranteed a win in the sound categories and likely editing, and Best Actor is also within the realm. Honestly, I wouldn't discount it for BP, either. It's a crazy enough year.
Felix Quinonez: I definitely think this increases its chances at Oscar glory. At the end of the day awards for movies (or any sort of art) are always subjective. There's no quantifiable way for one person to say one movie is better than another. So it boils down to people giving their opinions. And this huge opening will definitely give a lot of buzz to American Sniper and get people talking about it which will have an impact when Oscar members vote for the awards.
Michael Lynderey: There's no question the box office increases its chances, yes. But it's pretty unprecedented for box office alone to carry what otherwise would have been an also-ran contender all the way across the finish line, and to a win. Boyhood is a really beloved film by Oscar voters (or at least so I've been told), so it would seem exceedingly difficult for a movie like this, which doesn't really have unanimous critical praise, to outmaneuver it. Having said that, given the many surprises among the nominations, and the comically high weekend take for American Sniper, just about anything seems possible at this point. Though I'm always reminded of the year The Hurt Locker beat Avatar. The box office difference between those two films was certainly significant, you could say.
Bruce Hall: There's no such thing as bad publicity, as they say. But several other films have had far more traction than American Sniper prior to this weekend, so I'm not sure it's enough to catch up. I agree that the lack of a Best Director nod hurts its chances, at least if you believe in statistics. And - no offense to Mr Eastwood - I think there are other films in nomination that stand as more significant accomplishments artistically.
Still, it makes for good conversation and stranger things have happened. It will no doubt win a handful of technical awards, but the sudden groundswell of goodwill for American Sniper could yet pay off in ways far more significant.
Max Braden: The Oscar voting deadline is still four weeks away so this news certainly has the opportunity to make an impact. I think this kind of record-breaking news has to have a mental impact on the voters even if they had a different front-runner in mind; people are susceptible to peer pressure and a desire to fit in with the crowd. I wonder, though, if the hype of this weekend will wane in the minds of late voters who will be looking at the accolades for Boyhood and The Imitation Game as indicators of the 'deserved' winner. I'd say American Sniper is now in play for the top three choices, but I don't currently expect it to win.
Kim Hollis: On Thursday, I would have thought it was ridiculous to even entertain the notion that it could be in contention, bigger box office or not. Now... this feels like a narrative that could lead to a Best Picture win. I still think it's unlikely to happen, but I feel that it's not nearly as cut and dried as it was. What I actually foresee happening, though, is backlash against American Sniper that keeps a lot of voters from choosing it. I also don't think there's a lot of overlap in likely Boyhood voters (or Birdman voters, or Grand Budapest Hotel voters) and American Sniper voters. I'll say this, though. I am going to be *pissed* if Bradley Cooper's terrible Texas accent wins out over Michael Keaton.
Kim Hollis: At this point, do you consider Bradley Cooper a critically lauded actor, a box office draw, or some combination of the two?
Edwin Davies: I put him into the same box as pre-Pirates Johnny Depp. He's a star whose name most people know and he picks smart, interesting projects that play to his strengths, but the project needs to be right to really break out. His name alone couldn't get people to see The Place Beyond the Pines in big numbers, for example. He seems to have found the perfect mix now (hint: it does not involve doing romantic comedies), which is that he works with quality directors on broadly appealing projects.
Felix Quinonez: I think that it's a combination of both. The fact that he has now been nominated for best actor three years in a row does not escape people. I think audiences realize that he's a talented actor who chooses quality projects. But as far as box office draw, I don't think he's yet reached the point where people will watch anything that he does. But his being involved in a project definitely doesn't hurt its box office prospects.
Michael Lynderey: Well, he's basically a really big movie star, is what he is. Traditionally, A-list actors have been box office draws at the same time as getting at least fairly strong notices from critics. I think of Tom Hanks, Kevin Costner, Russell Crowe, Leonardo DiCaprio, and so on. The movie star tradition is to do a big popcorn movie for the summer and then a more critically-lauded - but still high-grossing - film for the awards season. Bradley Cooper has veered somewhere on that line with his Hangover movies and whatnot, but lately he's focused mostly on winter awards contenders, and that's paid off repeatedly - three nominations in a row. I think he'll make it four in a row if he stars in that next David O. Russell/Jennifer Lawrence movie, Joy. And while he probably won't win an Oscar this year, I'd guess the final vote tallies would have him ranking a lot higher than anyone could guess - and I'd expect a win by him by the end of the decade.
Bruce Hall: I'm not sure there are any truly transcendent actors any more. The days where audiences will consistently flock to see any title - so long as a certain name is on the marquee - are probably long gone. Even the great Johnny Depp and the seemingly immortal Tom Cruise can attest to this. Still, Cooper is a dashingly handsome and legitimately talented actor who, yes, has been distinctly recognized by the Academy for several years in a row. I would venture to say that he's here to stay as a creative force, but it's still relatively early in his career to make any sweeping judgments.
Max Braden: Despite his three consecutive Best Actor Oscar nominations, I still see Bradley Cooper primarily as someone who works in comedies or dramedies. Like Hugh Jackman, he's a good looking guy who has been able to venture into other areas but he still has his primary wheelhouse for box office purposes. He clearly was a factor for audiences flocking to see American Sniper, but I'm not sure I'd bet on him being able to repeat that feat with drama after drama.
Kim Hollis: I think he's a combination of both. He's transitioned from being a guy who's in comedies and mid-budget action films to someone that director's are excited to work with. Over the past few years he's been in films by David O. Russell (who I'd argue is responsible for helping build Cooper to this point in his career), Clint Eastwood and soon Cameron Crowe and John Wells. It looks likely that he'll reteam with Jennifer Lawrence and David O. Russell again this year (plus he has another film with Lawrence hitting theaters soon). Cooper has done a masterful job of choosing projects that take advantage of his talent in a positive way.