Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
January 13, 2015
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jason Barney: The unlikely Liam Neeson action movie streak continues. This opening is fantastic considering there are some factors working against any sort breakout potential. First, even with some fairly solid numbers during the holiday season, no one can deny box office was down for 2014. With January not exactly being a safe realm for blockbusters, Taken 3’s opening right around $40 million is awesome. Franchise fatigue could have set in, but people still bought tickets. Considering the budget was a fairly modest $48 million, this flick will be making money even beyond the marketing costs pretty quickly. For a film to exceed its budget before it reaches its second weekend in theaters is the dream of most studios.
I think there is a larger story at play here, and it’s that Neeson’s career is doing just fine. The movies he has made over the last couple of years have not hurt him one bit. Even efforts like A Walk Among the Tombstones and A Million Ways to Die in the West appear to have at least broken even. Non-Stop was a glorified success considering it was made for $50 million and brought in well over $200 million worldwide. 2012’s Taken 2 isn’t that far in the rearview mirror. That installment was made for $45 million and it brought in a ridiculous $375 million worldwide. Battleship sunk right after leaving the docks, and Wrath of the Titans was not as successful as many had hoped, but even going back four years he was able to propel a film like Unknown to a pretty impressive profit.
The basic idea is this: some of his most recent work may not be the best quality of his career, but Neeson is an actor a lot of people are willing to see. The third installment in a franchise opening in mid January getting this sort of reception? Yeah, I think his career is doing just fine.
Matthew Huntley: I agree with Jason this opening is fantastic, although I would argue Taken 3's numbers are more attributable to the lack of competition and that all other films in the marketplace were merely expanding instead of reaching audiences for the first time, because they're certainly not a reflection of the movie's quality. And speaking of quality, I think Taken 3's poor reviews will make it the only installment in the franchise not to reach $100 million+. I just don't see it having good enough legs, but as Jason pointed out, the film is essentially already a success after one weekend. Even if it stumbles heavily from here on out, it'll cover its production budget and earn back its P&A budget with international and home market numbers. That's more than acceptable for the third film in a redundant franchise such as this.
Felix Quinonez: I think this is a great opening. I thought that audiences had tired of the "Liam Neeson kicks butt" movies a bit. And after the lukewarm reception of Taken 2, I expected this to see a bigger drop off. But $40 million is a great opening and because of its relatively low budget, it doesn't even need to have legs to be successful.
Bruce Hall: Here are the facts:
A wildly implausible film written by Luc Besson and starring a well respected but possibly past his prime 62-year-old leading man opens in early January.
Based on that scenario alone, and armed with no other information, it would be natural for me to assume the film in question made $11 million and would be more or less gone from theaters by the time you left work Monday afternoon.
So when you pull the blindfold from my eyes and tell me you're talking about Taken 3, and that it opened to almost $40 million, and that apparently, Liam Neeson could still kick my ass, what would I say?
I would say that this is an outstanding result, and no amount of nitpicking can spin it otherwise. Sure, it could have opened against more robust competition - but it didn't. A dollar is a dollar, and Neeson appears to be at the point in his career that most actors dream of, where he can pretty much do whatever the hell he wants to.
I can't say much for the movie, but I've got no problem giving Fox the win.
Michael Lynderey: Six years ago it would have been exceptional and shocking in many ways. Nowadays, it seems like yet another (in the long line of) success stories for Liam Neeson, who is unquestionably a leading man and a surefire draw. Just like The Maze Runner, The Equalizer, and all the rest, Taken 3 is going to be in a predictably tight race for $100 million, and the film will, most probably, just, just, just barely drag its tired and unwilling carcass over that mark (anyone want to start a pool as to when? I say March 15th). Even that would be a franchise worst here, but diminishing returns are expected, and for a film just marking time between Neeson action films, it's still a strong number. The ship is sailing ahead as sturdy as ever.
Edwin Davies: I'll echo the chorus of people saying that this is a great result, considering how bad Taken 2 was, the January doldrums and the exceptionally middling result for A Walk Among the Tombstones, which suggested that people might be beginning to tire of Neeson as an action hero. Obviously the strength of the brand and the way the film was billed as the final installment overwhelmed most of their problems - though not completely, considering that it still opened to less than Taken 2 and will probably not come close to matching the final tallies of the first two films, at least domestically. This will be another wildly successful film for Besson and Neeson, and even if it does earn considerably less than its predecessors, that'll just be confirmation that they're getting out at the right time.
Kim Hollis: Even if there's a slight bit of opening weekend slippage from Taken 2, the newest film's debut weekend is a huge win for the studio, Besson and Neeson himself. Clearly, people still want to see a man with a very particular set of skills kicking Eastern European ass. I don't think the release date was ever going to be a hindrance to it, but there was a chance that the perceived decline in quality from Taken to Taken 2 could damage the third film. No, it's not a novel idea anymore, but it's a surefire way to make money for the studio. Now that the franchise is done (for real, I would hope), it would be nice to see him in some more serious, non-action type stuff. Alas, other than Ted 2, it looks like we've got a couple more of these films to go before he stars in a Martin Scorsese film.
David Mumpower: The signature identification that a franchise has made an impact is when it gets derivative clones. We've seen actors such as Kevin Costner, Russell Crowe and Pierce Brosnan all try to pull a Neeson. While I agree that the chilly reception of the last film was problematic, even worse versions from people like Costner and Brosnan nicely remind me of the original. It's something that helped Live Free Or Die Hard reboot, and it's not proven to be a boost for I Know What You Did Last Taken. I will add that the decision to give away a key plot point in the trailer enhanced the demand. That was clever.