Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
October 28, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com

Do you think we could clone some more Gronks?

Kim Hollis: Ouija, a movie based on, er, the Hasbro game, earned $19.9 million this weekend. What do you think of this result?

Matthew Huntley: I find this figure impressive because marketing campaign for Ouija was rather quiet, at least from the media I've watched, and therefore the movie was probably able to generate an audience based on its catchy premise and the time-of-year alone, without a whole lot being spent on TV ads, etc. Additionally, like most horror movies these days, it was extremely cheap to make (OK, $5 million isn't cheap to you and me, but it is for a movie studio). Granted, it will be all but gone in eight or nine days, but it will still give Universal some extra spending money for the future. We've seen this trend time and again when it comes to the horror genre, but as long as little movies like this keep showing a profit, we'll keep seeing them appear atop the box office.

Felix Quinonez: I think this is a great result. Sure, this movie will be forgotten in less than two weeks but because it has a low budget, it will see a nice profit. And I think it really goes to show that a smart release date can help. People love to be scared and this movie served that purpose. (Or at least fooled enough people into thinking it would.)

Bruce Hall: It's not much worse than Battleship, which tried to slip in under the radar right before the 2012 blockbuster season and was rewarded with an embarrassing $25 million opening weekend.

Of course the primary difference is, that film came with Liam Neeson's Very Particular Set of Skills and an inexplicably massive $200 million budget. If the person who sold Battleship as a potential franchise starter isn't in an institution getting pumped full of soul-killing drugs, they should be.

On the other hand, Ouija comes with comparatively modest expectations. It cost the same amount of money that Liam Neeson probably keeps under his bed, and stars nobody you need concern yourself with. And, it is based on a board game almost nobody plays.

With that in mind, consider that primary counter-programming for the weekend was as follows:

- A Brad Pitt movie that has already had its best weekend.

- A typically niche Bill Murray film.

- Something with Keanu Reeves in it.

So naturally, the movie about that board game you didn't even know they still made came out the winner. The numbers say this is a big success. So, I guess everyone who laughed at and mercilessly mocked this movie when it was first announced can consider themselves officially rebuked.

Enjoy your rebuking, other people who I am totally not one of.

Jason Barney: Well, you can't fault Universal for using the Halloween formula to try and make a few bucks. If they had released this next weekend, it would not have done so well. Releasing such a small project too early doesn't allow it to take advantage of the seasonal aspects. So one week prior to Halloween, we have a genre film Universal didn't spend that much on and earned a decent amount. Ouija's reported $5 million budget is great for the company, as the next couple of days are going to push this one well beyond the marketing costs. Even if the film is terrible, and by all indications it is, Universal continues to be one of the more successful filmmaking companies at present. They have an impressive track record over the last year or two. Many, many moneymakers, not a lot of misses.

This was really easy for them to figure out, I would imagine. You can't fault them. The last couple of years have seen more than a handful of cheap horror flicks enter the market place and do extremely well against their budgets. The Purge and The Conjuring are probably the best examples, but there are many more. These films are easy to make and produce. Marketing muddies the water a little bit with respect to expenses, but in the end they nearly all do well.

Ouija will probably exit the top 10 pretty quickly. Next weekend there are three new releases. Not many people will be going to the movies, and you may see it drop below John Wick, Fury, and maybe even Gone Girl. It will have made its money, though.

Kim Hollis: It’s probably about in line with expectations, I would say. It’s a PG-13 horror film released at the right time of the year. Considering that all of the stars are basically unknown, Platinum Dunes was able to keep production costs down and turn this into a tidy little profitable venture. What’s next? Bop It! The Movie?

Kim Hollis: John Wick, a revenge flick featuring Keanu Reeves, earned $14.4 million this weekend. What do you think of this result?

Matthew Huntley: A lot of analysts are calling this a "solid" result, but I'm not exactly sure as to why. Were expectations for John Wick really low to start out? Is it because it only carries a reported $20 million budget? Is it because it stars Keanu Reeves and people now view him as a washed up box-office draw? In any event, the numbers are solid, I suppose, but far from great, and despite the very positive reviews, I can't see this sticking around for too long because of the busy season coming up. Still, I'm more than curious to see it.

Felix Quinonez: Given the budget, I'm inclined to call this a win. But I can't help but feel a little disappointed. I saw the movie today and thought it was great. It was by no means a mind blowing movie but it was definitely a lot of fun. But even a couple of weeks ago I had no idea what the movie was about. The posters revealed nothing. And since I don't own a TV, I only see trailers when I go searching for it online or see it in theaters. But once I saw the reviews it was getting I had to see the trailer. And as soon as I did I went from not even thinking about John Wick to "I have to see it." I guess I was hoping a lot more people would feel that way, I guess that wasn't the case. But it did beat its tracking and because of its budget, it could see some profit. I'm hoping it has some legs and turns into a nice little hit for Keanu.

Bruce Hall: John Wick may not have won the weekend, but everyone's talking about it - and they still will be a week from now. Let's just see if that positive word-of-mouth translates into the kind of legs that can carry Keanu back to relevance.

And don't let that low budget fool you. This is a legitimately great movie that earned roughly three quarters of its production cost back over the weekend. To me, that's the very definition of "solid". When movies about guys in capes and tights open to those percentages, people spot themselves. At this comparatively low price level, I'm okay characterizing John Wick as a decent chunk of "win.”

And on a day when Keanu Reeves is getting almost as much artistic acclaim as Bill Freaking Murray, I now know that absolutely anything is possible.

We live in a truly wondrous age.

Jason Barney: This appears to be a pretty nice win for the film and for Keanu Reeves. First, opening second isn't bad, and it is reported to have made most of its budget back within one weekend. That is usually a pretty nice formula for success. Its prospects going forward are favorable, as it has already seen a very nice bump from word-of-mouth. The Saturday-to-Sunday drop was statistically significant (-33%), as eight of the other top 10 films lost a larger portion of their audience. I know these are small numbers for film that really wasn't on anyone's radar screen, but I'm wondering if this can't be a nice little surprise for a while longer. I will be curious what the weekday drops are, and I am interested to see how well this one does against next week's new films. Two of the new openers will be coming out of the gate with lower screen counts.

For Reeves, this is nice to see after the disaster that was 47 Ronin. Regardless if you have some great big successes on your resume, it is never good to have such a large failure there either. It is a little bit of a comeback for Reeves.

Kim Hollis: Considering its limited screens (2,589) and what I consider to be subdued studio support, I think this film overcame a lot to finish as well as it did. Most of all, it’s winning the conversation. People really are discussing it this week, and word-of-mouth is pretty solid across the board. People want to see Keanu succeed, so it’s easy to go out and support a movie like this one. Anyone who might have been on the fence might be convinced to see it now.

Kim Hollis: St. Vincent, the Bill Murray comedy, expanded to wide release this weekend and earned $7.7 million. What do you think about this performance?

Felix Quinonez: I think it's definitely a good result but not so good that it's going to give the movie a lot of buzz. I think it's a promising start, but it's not the kind of performance that will grab the attention of enough people who weren't already sold on the movie for it to crossover.

Bruce Hall: I think this film will take its rightful place in the Bill Murray pantheon, and contribute to his overall career eventually being appreciated as the gem it is.

The movie will be profitable, making back a sizable portion of its cost over the weekend, plus another million or so in limited release. Murray will rightly get some of the credit for that, but I don't think it's a particularly huge story.

Jason Barney: This is a good enough opening. The $13 million budget will easily be in play over the next few days, and the Halloween weekend shouldn't hurt this one too much. I'd expect a less than 50% drop and then it will start eating into the marketing costs. In the end this will be profitable.

Kim Hollis: It’s a perfectly acceptable result for a somewhat niche film. Murray is beloved but not necessarily a box office draw. It should hold up well for a few weeks, which will please the studio. Most likely the real money for this one will come from home video release.