They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don’t They?
The New York Film Festival and the Waiting Game
By J. Don Birnam
October 16, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Please note that most of the reviews of the movies that follow, while brief, may contain some spoilers.
Gone Girl: Gone Chances?
The biggest story to come out of New York was undoubtedly Dave Fincher’s adaption of the Gillian Flynn cult hit Gone Girl. Starring a stunning Rosamund Pike and a well-cast Ben Affleck, the movie portends to be a narrative of the events surrounding the mysterious disappearance of Pike’s character, but packs a psychological and cultural punch that is much more profound than that pedestrian plot summary suggests. Featuring Fincher’s signature moodiness and happy wallowing in the dark vicissitudes of the human soul, Gone Girl is one part media critique and two parts social commentary about marriage and relationships, mixed with a dash and a sprinkle of sarcasm, wit, and ridiculousness.
More: the movie was well received by the New York crowd and almost universally acclaimed by critics, and since its nationwide release two weeks ago it has done well with audiences. You would think that this all combines to form a good Oscar recipe, but you’d be wrong. Most Oscar pundits now predict, and I agree, that Gone Girl’s chances with the Academy are close to nil. And the reason for this was obvious from before the movie was seen, as I predicted in an earlier column. Fincher’s no-prisoners style of movie making is simply never going to be well-received by the facile Oscar voters. To that, add the fact that Gone Girl, although in my view a smart and sharp critique of modern American relationships, can admittedly be dismissed as a too-insane-to-be-taken-seriously piece. That is what the Oscar bloggers have seen it as, all but dooming its chances.
Although a groundswell of critical awards early on could save its chances at a Best Picture nomination, Best Director seems out of the question at this stage, thus dooming its overall chances. Still, a Best Actress nod seems assured and is most deserved, as are likely a nod to Gillian Flynn for adapting her own novel and perhaps another nod to Fincher collaborator Trent Reznor for penning the score.
Two Days, One Night: Another Cotillard Gem
Although already seen at Telluride by others, I first had a chance to see Marion Cotillard’s latest human drama in New York, and thought it one of the best entries of the festival this year.
Two years ago in Rust and Bone, Cotillard proved once more that her seemingly early Oscar for La Vie En Rose was well-deserved. In Two Days, One Night, she has done it again. In this newest film, she plays a woman who has lost her job and whose only hopes of recovering it are to convince her coworkers, over the course of a weekend, to give up their bonuses so that she can be paid and regain her position. The game theory-esque narrative that follows is not necessarily what you’d expect from the gimmicky premise, and is instead a fair and sometimes surprising assessment of the human condition and what drives it. Shining above it all is Cotillard, who brings her usual sentimentality, passion, and honesty to the role.
Although it is unclear to me whether the movie will be seen by sufficient Academy members to land Cotillard a deserved Best Actress nomination (she missed out for the similarly small indie Rust and Bone), the movie has been selected as Belgium’s official entry to this year’s Best Foreign Language Film race. Although the Academy broke its own record by receiving over 80 submissions for that category this year, it is possible that the strength of the film and the allure of the name will land Belgium a coveted spot amongst the final five.
Inherent Vice: Inherent Bias Against
The NYFF also landed the world premiere of the latest Paul Thomas Anderson movie, Inherent Vice. Adapted from the Thomas Pynchon (The Crying of Lot 49) novel of the same name, Vice is another brilliant entry into the Paul Thomas Anderson vernacular. Equal parts L.A. Confidential and Boogie Nights (the former, of course, not an Anderson piece), the movie tells the story of an LA cop who helps his ex-girlfriend investigate the disappearance of her current boyfriend. The material he’s working with is imaginative as it is, but the director proves one more that he can extract brilliance from otherwise mundane actors (think Adam Sandler in Punch Drunk Love), as Jena Malone and Reese Witherspoon deliver performances noteworthy for being equally good on comedic timing as they are in dramatic undertones.
Still, Paul Thomas Anderson movies tends to be critical darlings (and this one was most critics’ favorite from the NYFF), but don’t do well with broad audiences and never with the Academy. Boogie Nights got some traction, but that’s as far as he would get, as his following entries fell mostly flat with Oscar. I would not be surprised if this film got completely passed over, but an Adapted Screenplay nomination is not completely out of the question.
Birdman: Perhaps the Biggest Revelation of the Festival
Last year, Alfonso Cuaron made history as the first Hispanic to win the Best Director Oscar for Gravity. This year, another member of the so-called Mexican Gang of Three, Alejandro González Iñárritu seems a lock for a Best Director nomination and poses a dangerous threat for the win (the third member, by the way, is Pan’s Labyrinth’s Guillermo del Toro). I have been a big fan of Iñárritu since he led Mexico to its first Best Foreign Language Film nomination in years with the masterful Amores Perros. His other films, 21 Grams, Babel, and Biutiful, have also impressed me. Iñárritu’s work is somber but full of passion; mostly dark and full of death or impending death but somehow always hopeful, redeeming, and caring in the end.
With Birdman, he has ventured slightly outside his usual vernacular of doomed-to-die characters into the otherwise trite world of the story of the failed or fading star. As hard as it is to make a significant contribution to a genre that includes Sunset Boulevard and All About Eve, Iñárritu delivers an emotional, witty, and definitely memorable movie about a fading Broadway star and some of the unforgettable people who surround him. Undoubtedly he is helped by the amazing performance of Michael Keaton in the lead role, who is potentially destined for his career Best Actor Oscar win next February. Ed Norton is his reliable self, but the most salient aspect of Birdman is that the emotional twists are not what you would expect from the otherwise familiar plot line (much like what made Cotillard’s movie so good).
It may have some trouble nabbing the ultimate prize as the movie remains true to its director - nuanced, complex, and unforgiving at times - but it seems almost impossible not to pencil it down for a smattering of nominations from Picture and Director, to Actor and Screenplay.
NYFF In Summation
Overall, I have to say, at the risk of sounding too much like a homeboy fan, that I was much more impressed with the four movies I saw in New York than the nine I enjoyed in Toronto last month. Just comparing the opening night selection of both (The Judge for Toronto and Gone Girl for New York), as well as the closing night galas (A Little Chaos for Toronto and Birdman for New York), should leave no doubt that the Lincoln Center people are making a serious run at a bigger name and are leaving the Oscar-hungry TIFF selectors in the dusk. TIFF may still ultimately prevail should The Imitation Game make it all the way through, but quality wise I don’t think the race was even close this time around.
What’s Next For the Oscar Race?
Foxcatcher also screened in New York. I did not have opportunity to see it, but it continued to play well. Still, the consensus remains that it is impossibly dark and sorrowful for the Academy, even if it’s a lock for strong acting nominations.
Other movies have a lot of promise, but have not been seen. Thus, while many pundits expect Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar and Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken to have strong chances, it is simply foolish to predict anything about movies that not a single person has seen. Again, movies like Amelia and Australia should disabuse anyone of the notion that a big name and fancy-sounding project is enough to get through to the Best Picture field. The movie has to actually be good.
All we can do right now is point to what we have seen and try to figure out which will go far. I would say that The Imitation Game is a lock for a nod, given the strong audience reception in Toronto. The same goes for Birdman and Foxcatcher given their strong critical performances to date. And, perhaps mostly because of the weak field (I’m having trouble coming up with even give movies right now), I have a hard time seeing Gone Girl missing out on a Best Picture nomination, but it is admittedly teetering at the moment. Others believe that the Grand Budapest Hotel still has a chance, and I suppose that makes sense given the week field. Still others mention the Stephen Hawking biopic The Theory of Everything and the biopic of the British painter J.M.W. Turner, Mr. Turner, as potential Best Picture nominees. Both sound plausible, but I will pass on commenting for sure until I see them.
What’s next, then, is the waiting game. Most of the movies mentioned here will be released to audiences in the coming weeks (with only Unbroken opting for an incredibly high risk gamble of a December release) and thus face their final (or in some cases first) test of the season. Interstellar, which opens in early November, is the most anticipated, as it is completely sight unseen right now. Then, in late November, the critics’ awards will start rolling in, and before you know it the Golden Globes will announce their nominations in mid-December.
Right now, there is a lot of space for the ground to shift. The question is whether any movie will muster the moment to do so, and which one it will be.