Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
October 7, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com

You'd think Kansas City fans would be buying them the drinks.

Kim Hollis: Gone Girl, the David Fincher adaptation of the popular novel from Gillian Flynn, debuted with $37.5 million this weekend. What do you think about this result? Also, do you think Gone Girl stakes a claim as the first big Oscar contender of the season?

Matthew Huntley: Given how effective the trailer was, not to mention the reputation of the cast (featuring a newly respected Ben Affleck) and director, I'm not surprised Gone Girl opened at number one. However, I am surprised it opened this big. I would have pegged it closer to $28-$30 million because of its seemingly conventional premise, target demographic (who doesn't always show up on opening weekend) and the time of year. So, basically, its numbers are impressive.

However, I don't think it'll be an Oscar contender, despite its very strong reviews. My reasoning is that even though it's an audacious and unconventional genre picture, it's not exactly an "important" film, if you know what I mean, or at least not the type of film the Academy would consider important and award-worthy, which is totally arbitrary, but that's just the way it is. Nevertheless, the reviews and hype should still translate into strong legs and a $120 million finish domestically.

Felix Quinonez: I think it's an awesome opening weekend. It's a huge win for everyone involved. I also think that because the movie exceeded expectations, it will get some positive headlines which will attract even more moviegoers. As far as its Oscar chances go, I'm hesitant to speak on that since I haven't seen it yet.

Bruce Hall: Hard to deny what a solid opening this is. The movie is based on a popular book, and I do think that a respected director and well regarded cast helped. Ben Affleck is well on his way to removing himself from everyone's go-to list of late night talk show jokes for good. I don't know how seriously we should take Gone Girl as an Oscar contender, though. I'm just not sure there's anything special enough about this movie to put it in the discussion. I think Gone Girl is a big win and a great change of pace for anyone ready to shake off the summer for good and head into the usual late year awards drama. But I'd be surprised to see Gone Girl playing much of a role in that conversation.

Edwin Davies: Considering how huge the book was and the pedigree of those involved - people have certain expectations of quality from Fincher at this point and Affleck has managed to make sure his name means "quality" to people instead of, well, the opposite of that - I'm not surprised that the film has opened as well as it has. The final number may be a bit higher than I expected, but I'd have been more shocked if the film had opened to less than $30 million than I am that it opened to almost $40 million. This was a great combination of red hot property combined with great trailers and a superb cast.

In terms of the Oscar conversation I think that Gone Girl has a more than decent shot at being one of the Best Picture nominees if they choose nine or 10 this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if Fincher and Gillian Flynn land directing and screenwriting nods, respectively. I think it's a little early to say with any certainty what the film's chances are without seeing how other contenders like Birdman and Inherent Vice do, but I will say this: Rosamund Pike seems like the film's best shot at a major nomination at this point.

Jason Barney: This is a remarkable opening weekend, and based on the amount of press the film is garnering, it probably will end up as an Oscar Contender. That discussion has a few months to pan out, but perhaps Gone Girl will be in the mix.

As for the performance of the film, this is a crazy strong opening that ensures a lot of money is going to get made. A $38 million start against a $60 million budget is the kind of math studios dream of. It will equal its budget around Saturday of next week, and it should be able to eat into marketing costs pretty quickly. It already has brought in some coin from overseas, so anyone and everyone involved has to be happy - especially since tracking had it coming out of the gate in the mid $20s. This is a great start.

Kim Hollis: Gone Girl's debut was almost exactly where I expected it to be. Since it's based on a popular novel and has strong leads and a great marketing push, the project was handled nearly perfectly. With regards to its Oscar prospects, I'd agree that it has a pretty strong chance at showing up if the field of Best Picture nominees is wide. It's a film that is doing a lot more than it seems on a surface viewing, and that kind of nuance is something I think will be appreciated as the film gets discussed more. I just don't know how I'll react if Rosamund Pike gets nominated (and I think there's a strong chance she does). She's just been so terrible in so many things up to now.

David Mumpower: Gone Girl’s debut is unsurprising in that it has a better pedigree than another recent Fincher adaptation, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Affleck is a bigger star than Daniel Craig, and the concept of Gone Girl is more marketable, at least before word spreads regarding its actual nature. Dragon Tattoo earned $102.5 million in 2011, and Gone Girl is right on track to exceed or at least match that performance. To a larger point, Gone Girl feels topical for the current social-media obsessed society in which we live.

An unrelated point we have yet to address is the growing importance of branding with regards to cinematic adaptations. This year alone, titles such as The Fault in Our Stars, The Maze Runner and now Gone Girl have translated their Amazon popularity into solid to spectacular box office runs. Novel buzz doesn’t always guarantee a hit movie, but it has been a hugely successful process this year.

Kim Hollis: What's your favorite David Fincher-directed film? What's your least favorite?

Felix Quinonez: It's hard for me to pick my favorite because I love Fincher's work so much. Because of this I will cheat and pick a three movie tie between Fight Club, Zodiac and Benjamin Button. My least favorite is Panic Room.

Matthew Huntley: Tough call, but favorite would probably be The Social Network, with Zodiac a close second. Least favorite: Alien 3 (the obvious choice, although I hear the director's cut is much better than the theatrical release).

Bruce Hall: If we're talking "favorite" and not necessarily "best," mine is Fight Club. I could watch that a hundred times and not get tired of it. And I don't mind saying I'm well on my way toward that goal.

I think Alien 3 is underrated as a film but since I utterly hate the impact it had on the franchise, I fart in its general direction.

Edwin Davies: Zodiac by a considerable distance, since I think it's the most complete, perfect and enjoyable film he's made, and even though I like a lot of the films he has made since (particularly The Social Network), everything he's done since then exists in the shadow of what a monumental achievement Zodiac was.

Least favorite would probably be Fight Club at this point, because it's a film that I like less and less each time I watch it, whereas even films like The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, both of which I flat out dislike, are ones that offer more with each revisit. Fight Club, for me, offers less and less.

Brett Ballard-Beach: I could easily force myself to choose between The Social Network and Zodiac for my favorite Fincher but I'll shake up this discussion and say The Game, which I both think is great and hold special affection for. It was a brilliant switch-up after Se7en, it manages to be both a great thriller and a wicked comedy, it works on the audience much the same way as the game works on Michael Douglas' character (by investing us with paranoia and breaking us down before putting us back together). And Deborah Kara Unger gets to deliver one of my favorite film lines of all time: her breathily mumbled put-down: "Where'd you all run off to, you motherfuckin' frat boys?"

For least favorite, I have to go with Fight Club. It's so much craft and technique in front of and behind the camera in service of a story that does nothing for me, even 15 years later. I'd be lying if I didn't say I find it entertaining, but it ultimately leaves me so cold, it always seems such a waste of the entertaining.

David Mumpower: The biggest compliment we can give Fincher as a director is that several different titles have been suggested thus far. Personally, I have watched The Social Network more than any other film of his. I also love The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, which I happen to be watching on Vudu as I type this. I will be disappointed in Fincher never does the sequels.

The choice of favorite, however, comes down to two titles already mentioned, The Game and Zodiac. I love the daring and the denouement of the former while the structure of the latter story takes my breath away. Which one I like best is a mood thing, but I consider Zodiac a greater achievement in moviemaking.

My least favorite of his works is The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, a film I often cite as an example of how a great concept isn’t enough to carry a film. That title has one brilliant moment, the description of all the circumstances that have to transpire in order for the dancer to experience an injury that ends her career. The rest of the flick is an unbearable slog. I still cannot believe that film received 13 Academy Awards nominations.

Kim Hollis: I am probably less of a Fincher fan than... almost anyone I know. I generally like a lot of his films but often find them cold and clinical. I think a number of them are really masterful (The Social Network, Se7en, Zodiac and The Game come to mind) but I may like Gone Girl the best in the long run. It's got a wicked sense of humor that I think goes right over most people's heads.

I'd agree on Benjamin Button as least favorite. I found it interminably boring.