Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
September 30, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jason Barney: I think Denzel Washington equals money in the bank at this point. I am not going to say I was shocked by the strength of the opening, but this is on the high side of most of the numbers I looked at. Based on his track record and the month, anything in the high $20 million range would have been great, but opening to $35 million is very, very strong. The RottenTomatoes ratings are a little lower than I would have thought, but word-of-mouth appears great and in the long run, this film is going to make a significant amount of money. It will have surpassed the budget by the end of weekend two, then it can eat into marketing costs.
For Sony, this is a much needed win, as the only legit hit they had this year was 22 Jump Street. Their year has NOT been very good, considering they were nervous enough about the reception to Amazing Spider-Man 2 where they are toying with the release date of the third film. They have obviously had other projects, but Sex Tape was a big disappointment. Early in the year Pompeii was a HUGE miss. The Equalizer rights the ship a little bit.
Edwin Davies: Denzel Washington's so consistent at this point that this isn't that much of a surprise, though the fact that it opened considerably higher than his usual average (especially since it's an R-rated thriller based on a property that most people don't remember, if they knew about it at all) makes it pretty remarkable. It also means that when assessing what makes some of his films break out more than others, it becomes a case of working out which of the variables ultimately bolstered the constant that is Denzel Washington and his $20 million opening streak.
I think the reunion of Denzel and Antoine Fuqua, who directed him to thrilling effect in Training Day, and the easily sold premise probably played a big role in helping this break out, as did Chloe Grace Moretz's presence in a role that established a kind of superficial similarity to his role as a protective figure in Man on Fire. Denzel has such a long, distinguished and popular body of work at this point that referencing his more popular ones, even implicitly, probably helps draw out different audiences. There seem to be a lot of little elements at play that combined to one of his biggest opening weekends, even though individually a lot of those things might not seem that important to such a strong success.
Felix Quinonez: It's a great opening weekend but not much of a surprise. As far as box office goes, I think Denzel is as dependable as it comes. But the fact that it exceeded most expectations cements his status as a middleweight box office champ.
Tim Briody: It's hard to say much about anything Denzel Washington puts out other than he's one of the most consistent actors in the history of the box office. There's a set floor and set ceiling for his openings. He hasn't had an outright bomb in, well, ever. What's interesting here is that it's the first film he's done that screams ready-made franchise, if he wants to go that route. Maybe he's taking inspiration from Liam Neeson's career arc.
Max Braden: That's a great result for both Denzel Washington and the movie. It's the fourth best September opening on record, and the top three are comedies and horror - Hotel Transylvania, Insidious Chapter 2, and Sweet Home Alabama. It also bests Liam Neeson's $29 million opening weekend for Non-Stop at the end of February this year. That's pretty good for middle-to-late age action stars when Schwarzenegger and Stallone both struggled to get their action movies to thrive (Expendables 3 has topped out with a full run gross of less than $40 million). This is not quite as big as the $40 million opening Denzel Washington helped pull in for Safe House, but adding the two together and mentioning his nomination for Flight in the same breath provides a really strong recent filmography that he should be able to bank on for his next few projects.
Reagen Sulewski: I mean, the guy is about to turn 60, and still looks 45 at most. There's some sort of voodoo going on here both in looks but also in how he's been able to get basically anything to market that he wants, and pick the right people to compliment his style. The guy never makes a wrong move, and it's perhaps in a significant way due to him never trying to reach for the absolute highs of box office. He knows his niche and works within it perfectly.
Kim Hollis: A photo of Denzel Washington's face is in the dictionary next to the definition of "consistency." When he opens a film, you can expect it to be a solid performer. As Tim mentions, there's a ceiling and a floor for what he is able to bring to the table. The floor is so high that no matter what movie he does, you can feel confident that he's going to deliver. I think it really helped that The Equalizer looked sort of like Man on Fire 2, as that film was popular enough at the box office but really gained an audience on video.
David Mumpower: I do feel like the one thing we're under-appreciating with the Denzel Washington love-fest is the value of name recognition for the product. The Equalizer was, at one point, not only a popular show, but an often imitated one. In a way, the reboot is thematically closer to the Equalizer knock-offs than the actual television series, but it is driven by star power to the point that it opened extremely well. For me, this is what The A-Team should have been as a box office factor.