Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
July 30, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: This is better than I expected since the ads for this looked pretty terrible and The Rock, despite being one of the most likable and popular actors working today, has often struggled to open films as a lead; he tends to do best when being the highlight of a broader ensemble. That doesn't mean that it's a particularly good result compared to the cost, since a sub-$30 million opening makes it unlikely that it'll cover its $100 million production budget in America. However, it got off to a decent start internationally this weekend, so I think this one will probably end up being a draw for Paramount. Considering how big of a disaster this could have been, this has to be considered one of the better outcomes.
Jason Barney: I don't think this is a particularly good opening, but Paramount has to be sighing in relief that it did not turn into a disaster. I saw some estimates going into the weekend that it would underachieve to the level of $19 million, and with such a large budget that would have been truly awful. Now, Paramount at least knows over the next several weeks that Hercules can fight to earn most of its money back domestically. They probably didn't want to be watching the international numbers so much, but that is the position they are in now.
To be honest, the international numbers are a little better at this point than I would have expected them to be, so maybe signing someone like the Rock to the project will indeed work out in the long term.
Reagen Sulewski: Yes, there was a pretty deep floor possible on this one, so what ends up being a pretty respectable number actually seems like a large win. It's also great news for Johnson, as his career has been kind of swingy, and with the Fast and the Furious franchise looking like it's probably wrapping up, he needs something to leap to. I think a lot of this performance can be credited to it looking just enough like the 300 films but being "something else" in that genre. As much as I bemoan copycatting in the entertainment industry, it works so often that studios are crazy not to do it. In this case, there's a bit of luck with timing, but whatever works.
Bruce Hall: So, I guess someone owes Alan Moore an apology? I wish I could say that this was a disastrous result, sufficient to have Brett Ratner covered with tar, dipped in Cheeto dust, strapped to a boulder and left for the vultures. But unfortunately, this is merely a deeply disappointing blip on the radar for Ratner, Paramount, and Dwayne "Needs a better real name than Dwayne" Johnson. Despite the critical drubbing he takes on almost every movie, Ratner has work lined up for the next three years and by all accounts, is admired by studio execs for his uncanny ability to make terrible movies profitable.
The Rock is not without blame here, though. As likable as he is, he lacks sufficient range to carry a film on his own. Until he finds a signature character a-la The Terminator that makes him undeniable, he might continue to have issues with this.
Still, the international box office will help staunch the bleeding and once Hercules retires to home video, I suspect Ratner will have made himself yet another terrible-but-technically-profitable notch on his ever widening belt.
David Mumpower: I think the concept of ceilings and floors Reagen introduced with reply is a good one to explore here. Realistically, the ceiling for Hercules was never that high because there was already a test run for this release in January. That film bombed by earning less than $20 million against a $70 million budget. That is why everyone is right to give The Rock a ton of credit for elevating the same concept into something closer to a winner. Hercules is going to make money before it exits theaters worldwide. In the process, it has avoided the doomsday scenario, which is why the potential floor is so important. I was hard pressed to find a single discriminating action movie fan who stated a desire to watch Hercules last weekend. And the ones who did gave it the benefit of the doubt solely because of the person starring in the film. BOP has gone out of its way to demonstrate how much more important concepts and quality are to the bottom line of a movie, but star power still matters to a degree. The question for The Rock this week is whether he wasted his current heat on an instantly forgettable movie instead of discovering a project that could have elevated him the way that Lucy did for Scarlett Johansson.
Kim Hollis: A Most Wanted Man, a spy movie and one of Philip Seymour Hoffman's final roles, opened in 10th place with $2.7 million from just 361 venues. What do you think about this result?
Edwin Davies: This is a very strong start for an extremely good film, and I think it bodes well for its expansion chances going forward. Roadside Attractions had a decent success last year with Mud, which opened to a similar amount and managed to earn more than $21 million by the end of its run. I'm not sure that A Most Wanted Man will manage that, because the appeal of seeing Matthew McConaughey in the midst of his artistic renaissance is probably greater than that of watching Philip Seymour Hoffman give a dark and intense performance so soon after his untimely passing, but the great reviews, word-of-mouth and this strong start should allow it to hold very well in the weeks ahead.
David Mumpower: What this opening does well is justify Oscar season buzz for Hoffman in a few months. The film is now well positioned to remain in theaters indefinitely as Edwin mentions. A per-location average of $7,442 is not dazzling for a title exhibited in 361 locations. It is, however, better than Chef managed in 72 locations once we perform equivalence for the venue discrepancy. Similarly, that number bests the third weekend of Chef, the one where it expanded into 498 locations. Chef earned $4,551 per location that time. As long as A Most Wanted Man does not die unexpectedly this Friday, it should be a strong enough performer that Hoffman remains in the awards season conversation until the start of 2015.