Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
July 29, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: This is superb from pretty much every angle. It exceeded its modest budget of $40 million after its opening weekend, which means there's a very good chance that it'll see a profit stateside before international sales are taken into account. Those international numbers should also be pretty impressive since both Besson and Johansson have considerable appeal overseas. In terms of individual achievements, it's the best opening weekend of Luc Besson's career as a director and should surpass The Fifth Element to be his biggest US hit of all time before next weekend is out. Also, even if it has Godzilla/Amazing Spider-Man 2-type legs, it should still surpass He's Just Not That Into You to become Johansson's biggest non-Marvel film domestically. Maybe, just maybe, this will finally push Marvel into releasing a Black Widow film, because there's clearly a demand to see Scarlett Johansson kicking some serious ass.
Jason Barney: This is about as good as it gets for a non-franchise action flick. To best the budget of $40 million during opening weekend while the box office is at a relatively cool point - and against another action star like the Rock - is a pretty substantial accomplishment. As far as the numbers go, this is going to make a lot of money very quickly. Usually we are talking about a film like this recouping its cost over the course of several weeks, but Lucy is already eating into the advertising part of the expense sheet. Where it goes from here is anybody's guess, but even if there are big drops during weekends two and three, everyone involved can claim success.
I also think it is noteworthy to mention that Universal is more than just on a hot streak as John Hamann mentioned in the Weekend Wrap-Up. Universal is setting the standard for turning projects into money making machines. Yes, they have Lone Survivor, Neighbors, Ride Along, Non-Stop, and The Purge Anarchy as big bread winners this year, but this is on the heels of incredible achievements last year. Despicable Me 2 earned them boatloads of cash, and Fast and the Furious 6 did extremely well. Yeah, they are white hot.
Bruce Hall: This is phenomenal! As a director, Lucy promises to give Luc Besson his most successful North American title to date as Edwin mentioned. Unless everyone suddenly stops liking Scarlett Johansson next week, this will almost certainly be one of those surprise $100 million films we were discussing not too long ago. Besson's latest variation on the "pretty girl with weird abilities beats everyone up" genre (is he the Woody Allen of sci-fi?) also spent its first frame destroying the latest Brett Ratner abomination, which only further cements Luc Besson's status in my personal pantheon of "guilty pleasure" filmmakers. Prepare yourself for the sequel. My guess is it was greenlit before the sun came up over L.A. this morning.
Kim Hollis: It's pretty tough to call this result anything less than fantastic. It's very rare for original properties not based on any special source material to open this high. The marketing campaign for the film was intriguing without revealing much, and I think Johansson is one of those rare actresses who appeals to both women and men, as evidenced by the fact that the demographic split for the audience was 50/50. That broadened the audience for Universal, and once again they've positioned their product for ultimate success.
David Mumpower: Since we are all in agreement about the dazzling success of Lucy, I would like to add a different thought. I believe that she has reached a spot in her career that surpasses even the one of the previous iteration of her, Angelina Jolie. Both actresses made their bones in small scale awards contenders before leveraging that awareness into action roles. Jolie's career started to ascend with Gone in 60 Seconds and then was solidified with her work as Lara Croft in the Tomb Raider movies. She peaked with Mr. and Mrs. Smith, a movie whose success is 50% due to her husband. She has of course done extraordinarily well with Maleficent this year, but that is more akin to Charlize Theron in Snow White and the Huntsman. At the age of 29, Johansson has now cemented the status she gained as Black Widow in the #1 film of all-time and the #1 film of 2014 to date by opening a movie north of $40 million. She was the sole draw, and she deserves all the credit. I now believe a Black Widow movie could open at least as high as Thor: The Dark World if not higher.
Kim Hollis: And So It Goes, a Rob Reiner comedy featuring Michael Douglas and Diane Keaton, opened with just $4.6 million. Why didn't this one do better at reaching its target demographic?
Edwin Davies: On the plus side, And So It Goes earned more in three days than the combined domestic totals of Rob Reiner's last two films, which has to be considered some sort of a victory, right? No? Okay.
As to why And So It Goes didn't do better, I think the answer lies in the fact that it looked absolutely terrible, and while older audiences tend to be more supportive of stars like Michael Douglas and Diane Keaton, who they grew up watching, they need something else to suggest that the film is worth their time. The ads weren't especially funny or compelling, and they lacked a strong hook like the one that anchored Reiner's last true blue hit, The Bucket List. There are limits to the "hey, look at these stars you liked in things before!" approach.
Jason Barney: When the target demographic is defined as people who don't go to the movies often, there is a significant chance of a misfire. That is not to say that older movie fans can't be drawn in by a good story, or something they like, but the conditions have to be just right. And So It Goes really never had anything appealing to offer. It was only released to 1,700 screens and that number is significantly smaller than nine of the 10 top films this week. It will be gone from theaters very quickly.
Bruce Hall: "There are limits to the "hey, look at these stars you liked in things before!" approach."
True that. I have no doubt Rob Reiner sincerely tried to make a decent film and by all accounts he is very fond of Michael Douglas and Diane Keaton. I'm sure they all worked very hard on a project that meant they all got to spend a lot of quality time together. I make neat things with my friends, too. But in selling a movie you need to convince someone who might never have heard of IT or YOU that the story you have to tell is worth the time and money you're asking them to invest.
I read some very lovely interviews with Rob Reiner for this movie but at no time did I read or see anything that made me think "Yeah, I should see this instead of something else."
Not everyone wanted to see ScarJo and The Rock punch everyone in the world this weekend, but that doesn't mean those people will settle for any old counter-programming. For most of us, if there's nothing appealing down at the cineplex, "doing nothing," "reading a book," or "getting drunk and staring at tropical fish" are equally viable options to watching an uninspiring film.
Kim Hollis: Although I knew this movie was being released this weekend, I wouldn't have if I didn't work for a movie website. I saw absolutely no promotion for it, and I just can't imagine that the studio spent a lot of time or money advertising the film overall. It was little more than a token release, and although Michael Douglas and Diane Keaton are indeed likable for a certain audience segment, it takes a lot more to get them into theaters than just exhibiting the film and hoping they'll show up.