Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
July 22, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Matthew Huntley: This is a great result for a movie that only cost $9 million to produce (and probably not more than $20 million to market), so the studio should definitely end up in the black on this one. However, this tune has been played before, whereby a low-budget horror movie opens to stellar numbers and then completely collapses in the weeks ahead. I see no reason why The Purge: Anarchy will be any different, but at least Universal gets to call it a success. Due to these figures, we can expect at least one more theatrical release in this franchise, followed then (probably) by direct-to-DVD sequels.
Edwin Davies: I also think this is a great result, less because of the number itself - which is still very impressive in terms of the budget - than how it compares to the opening weekend of the first film. The first Purge had a solid high concept premise that it did nothing with, teasing audiences with the promise of an America overrun by lawlessness then delivering a fairly standard home invasion thriller. There's definitely a sense that Anarchy was the film that people wanted the first film to be (and may even be the film that James DeMonaco wanted to make last year, but felt he needed to make a cheaper proof of concept first) and the ads did a great job of putting that idea across. Considering how poisonous the response to the first film was, retaining such a high proportion of the audience was a major success in and of itself. The word-of-mouth and reviews are stronger this time around, so there's a chance that it ultimately outgrosses its predecessor, but whether it does or not it'll be another ludicrously profitable entry in this nascent franchise.
Jason Barney: This is a fantastic result. This is the type of success that any studio would want to be able to claim on any project. David discussed something similar in his Daily Box Office Analysis on July 17th. Sure, there were three new openers, and yes, not one of them pulled in $30 million. However, if I am the guy with the calculator and spreadsheet, it is obvious efforts like The Purge:Anarchy that are making money. At some point projects with huge budgets and never-ending special effects became the expectation, and I am not saying that has changed, but a lot of these mid level or smaller projects are making money. And some of them are making a lot of it.
The Purge: Anarchy probably won't make the same amount as the original, but that is fine. Even considering the first one was made for a lot less, and this one was made for a lot more, Universal is already making money. In a very short time they have improved the brand, considering the original was just released 13 months ago. One wonders if there is going to be another entry next Halloween. There probably will be, why wouldn't Universal try to explore this and make as much money as possible?
My last point is a minor one, but it is still worth noting that Purge: Anarchy was the #1 film for a day, against one of the very few summer blockbusters we have had. On Friday it did beat out Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. It didn't win the weekend, but against Apes and two other new openers it wasn't supposed to. It is doing what the original did. Just making a lot of money.
Reagen Sulewski: On an individual case basis, sure this is a good result, but no studio is happy with the diminishing returns case, as it doesn't take a lot to blow up the budget just enough that the next slide doesn't cover the costs. This isn't going to cross $50 million domestic, and prints (admittedly kind of an outdated term now) and advertising never get put into the published budget figures, so it's much less of a success than we see here. But also, there's no upward trend to look forward to here, and there's definitely a reason why we don't still have Saw movies even though the last one was still profitable.
Kim Hollis: I'd say it's a completely expected result.The studio attempted to grab some cash and will largely succeed. For a small financial outlay, this will bring them some solid earnings, especially once home video revenue is factored in (this is so often where horror films really make the majority of their profit). Yes, we will see another Purge film and yes, it will probably decline in audience as well. The studio just has to do the calculation of when it makes sense to just move straight-to-DVD.
David Mumpower: My philosophy on this one is simple. The Purge as a concept is a money-maker. Lawlessness is an idea that appeals to a lot of people. It's why the Wild West/Deadwood concept continues to experience random surges in public interest. Similarly, the mafia, biker crews and dirty cops provide the same appeal. People fantasize about what it would be like to ignore the basic social contract. The Purge did exactly that and while its reception was less than glowing (it has a terrible 5.5 rating on IMDb), consumers understand what they are buying with the sequel.
I have spoken in the past about the way that marketing works best. That is when there is a direct one to one relationship between the product and the consumer. There is purity with The Purge franchise that is hard to attain with most films. I stated that Transformers had the same advantage last month on a larger scale. Most people may not love the movies, but there is a rare deliverance of truth in advertising. I always felt like people were sleeping on The Purge: Anarchy a bit. The fact that it exceeded most expectations then was underestimated for the weekend reflects the way that it fills a niche.