Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
July 1, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: The Chinese total is the more interesting part of this result. As David pointed out in the Weekend Wrap-up, China as a territory has barely been tapped as a source of revenue by American studios, largely due to restrictions that have been placed on how many foreign films can open there. Yet studios have persisted because, even though they get a smaller piece of the pie when it comes to the profits from films being released in China, the pie in question is VAST; it's easy to imagine the right Hollywood blockbuster earning a billion dollars in China alone, and even if studios are only taking home 10% of that, that's still a huge amount of money. Age of Extinction seems like it could represent a tipping point for Hollywood in that regard, since it's proof that if you target a film at the Chinese market - large parts of the film are set in China and a reality show was used to choose some of the Chinese cast members - it can yield the sort of results they've been dreaming of for years.
As far as the domestic opening goes, it's impressive (though I have my doubts that the actual total is accurate; this smacks of spin on the part of the studio so that they could say they had the first $100 million opening of the year) but I think it shows continued diminishing returns for the franchise. It's hard to do an apples-to-apples comparison since each of the previous installments opened mid-week, but it's notable that Age of Extinction had a lower Saturday and Sunday than Revenge of the Fallen and Dark of the Moon, both of which had already burned off $91 million and $64 million worth of demand before their first Friday. That suggests to me that a lot of people have been lost interest, or that they're waiting until the July 4th weekend to catch up. Either way, I'd be very surprised if Age of Extinction makes it to $300 million or if it avoids the sort of shocking drops that hit both Godzilla and The Amazing Spider-Man 2.
Bruce Hall: Even if the $100 million figure fails to hold, unless everyone suddenly forgot how to do math we're going to see an actual result in excess of Godzilla. Transformers is likely to walk away with bragging rights and I don't see it losing them in the next few weeks. In fact, let's just be frank about what has happened this weekend:
* This may be the worst reviewed movie of Michael Bay's career (which is really saying something), and if like most people you believe Rotten Tomatoes is God, barely half the people who saw it seem to have enjoyed it. Still, by the time we wake up tomorrow it will have officially earned the biggest opening weekend of the year.
* Entire articles can and will be written about how this result ranks against its predecessors, but I've already put away my slide rule. It doesn't matter. The movie cost somewhere between $160 and $200 million, depending on how you're counting. It was released (in the US, anyway) two days ago. Worldwide, it has already earned $300 million. If anyone at Paramount is still counting, it's being done in between lap dances.
* As I have said many times before, everyone seems to hate Michael Bay's movies, but they pay good money to see them anyway. They keep breaking records and making lots of very rich people even richer. Michael Bay has achieved the corporate Holy Grail, which is to make so much money you don't even have to be good at your job any more.
* He is obviously a living God and none of us should ever question his judgment or his fabulous mane of golden hair ever again.
Felix Quinonez: Michael Bay is a living god? More like the Antichrist. I think the foreign and domestic grosses should be looked at separately. I think Transformers 4 will have a similar foreign box office performance to the Pirates of the Caribbean sequels. For some reason those movies kept getting bigger and bigger overseas, long after domestic audiences realized the franchise had become a turd and abandoned ship. It's obviously a foregone conclusion that T4 will be a huge movie. But when all is said and done I believe that final worldwide gross will be very disproportionate, with a much bigger number coming from foreign markets.
As for the domestic numbers, its $100 million opening weekend is obviously very nice and it even sounds like it's performing similarly to the last couple of installments but you can't overlook the fact that this is the first one to actually open on a Friday. All of the other movies had burned off a lot of demand before even reaching the weekend. The second one made $91 million before reaching Friday and still opened bigger than this. The third one made $64 million before the start of the weekend and made pretty much the same as T4. I believe that by changing the release pattern this time around they were able to mask the fact that, at least domestically, the Transformers franchise is past its peak. The hardcore fans rushed out to see it on opening weekend but it will drop very fast. And I strongly believe that this will be the first installment in the series that doesn't make it to $300 million domestically. Again, similar to POTC. That franchise's fourth installment topped out at $240 domestically while all the three previous ones passed the $300 domestically.
Jason Barney: I can't believe I am going to write words which would come across as defending the Transformers franchise. I feel a little dizzy just writing this, but this is a fabulous debut. These films have done something, even if they are panned by critics and a good number of people who actually see them, that most franchises would dream about. Yes they suck, and yes the first Transformers is the only film in my adult life that I stopped watching because it was so bad, but Paramount seems to have targeted in on a formula for financial success and they are smiling all of the way to the bank. Even if the budget was $200 million, and even if we use the sloppy math and assume it must have a total global accumulation of double that number to make a profit, it will have surpassed that number before the end of July 4th weekend. We aren't talking about a flash in the pan horror film, or some well-reviewed independent flick that takes the world by storm. This is an established franchise, that despite the negative reviews, people flock to see....and I don't think it is really slowing down that much.
In seven years there have been four releases, and this opening is on the upper end. Even if you count inflation, the numbers are close. I would expect entry four into this franchise to do pretty well over the 4th of July Frame, and domestically to approach somewhere around $300 million. Is that great? No. At home, it may make the least amount compared to the other three.
The foreign money involved here, and even with the BOP discussion I don't think we truly grasp how much we are talking about, is going to be sickening. The first Transformers earned $700 million worldwide. Revenge of the Fallen increased that number to $836 million. Three years ago Dark of the Moon took home $1.2 billion during its run. Age of Extinction, with this opening, is going to be massive. I guess I am in awe of what this franchise is accomplishing. It has positioned itself within a rare group of films whether we like it or not.
David Mumpower: Telling people not to watch Transformers movies is like telling teens not to drink. They are going to do it, nobody can stop them from doing it, and everybody knows it's a stupid thing to do. We all have our blind spots, and said blind spots apparently equate to $190 million in China, Canada and the United States. Everyone has already stated the reality of the situation. Age of Extinction will earn a great deal less than any of its predecessors. It probably will not earn $300 million domestically, maybe as much as $50 million less. Even so, it is now poised to absolutely destroy the final global box office of Revenge of the Fallen, the number eight movie of all time. I expect Transformers 4 to earn placement in the top five in terms of global revenue, which says everything about how stubborn we are as a people with regards to brain dead entertainment. Empirically, there is absolutely no difference in quality between Transformers: Age of Extinction and Transcendence. Johnny Depp should have fought robots instead of becoming one.
Kim Hollis: I’m going to say something that might sound weird and yet perhaps will make perfect sense. The opening for Transformers: Age of Extinction is almost kind of boring. Yes, the numbers in China are huge, but I feel like we’ve been approaching this tipping point in that region for some time. Overseas numbers have all been inflating rapidly, and China is clearly one of the markets where studios are most eager to expand their reach.
With regards to the domestic number, it feels odd to be saying this about a $100 million opener, but it’s an entirely expected debut, down to the fact that the studio probably lied to make sure that they were able to stake the claim to being the first film to reach that lofty peak in 2014. The only thing that is really impressive to me about this opening is the fact that that many people were actually willing to spend money to sit through 165 minutes of the same brainless garbage Michael Bay has produced time and again.