Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
June 25, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: For me, the biggest stories are the handful of surprises we've seen so far in terms of films either flaming out ridiculously quickly or showing surprising holding power. A few weeks ago, I would not have imagined that Maleficent would outgross both Godzilla and The Amazing Spider-Man 2, yet both of those films look likely to tap out at around $200 million despite opening to over $90 million, while Maleficent has shown tremendous staying power after a less stellar, but still impressive, opening weekend. Even in an age where blockbuster legs are pretty much non-existent, those performances are kind of astonishing, especially since they came so close together.
At the other end of the budget spectrum, the performance of low-budget films like The Fault in Our Stars must be giving pause to whomever it was who green lit Edge of Tomorrow. Even with its own burnout, which has been almost as steep as Godzilla's even if the numbers are far lower, the success of TFIOS has been pretty remarkable, in both good and bad ways. This has been a weird summer so far, to be sure, and it's got me wondering if Transformers will flop as well. (Obviously it won't, but a man can dream, though. A man can dream.)
Matthew Huntley: First of all, I too hope that Transformers will flop, if only to discourage the studio from green lighting more sequels. (Even if Age of Extinction is good, we don't need more Transformers movies.)
Anyway, and this ties in with what Edwin stated, what I find interesting is blockbusters like The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla and Edge of Tomorrow, which I thought were good (especially Godzilla), have shown very little staying power or made much of a dent in the box-office despite their positive reviews, humungous profiles and industry expectations. Perhaps we're entering an age where audiences simply want different material, although movies like Neighbors, Maleficent and 22 Jump Street are hardly original; but crowds are responding to them more. The 2014 season has been one where the expected winners are turning into the losers. Again, this I find interesting.
Tim Briody: My top five stories of the summer to date:
1) The Lego Movie is still the #1 movie of 2014. Only for another day or two, but still. Kinda weird it hung on this long.
2) Maleficent legging it out to $200 million. Big win for Angelina Jolie.
3) The relative disappointment of How to Train Your Dragon 2. What do kids want?
4) The Fault in Our Stars earning $100 million with 25% of that coming on opening day.
5) The breakout of 22 Jump Street, having the kind of performance we thought How to Train Your Dragon 2 would have.
Jay Barney: My top story for the summer and for the year would be the lack of staying power of any film. The flame out issue is part of it, but on a larger scale, we are not seeing films approach the $300 million domestic mark. BOP has gone to great lengths in the last couple of weeks to explain the differences between domestic box office and foreign receipts and I find the domestic results interesting...almost crazy.
In 2013, four movies broke through the $300 million barrier and four more earned more than what Lego Movie or Captain America have done so far - $256 million. Thirteen movies made over $200 million last year. To this point this year, only three have cracked that level of support although another three are closing in. This year vs last year shows the numbers are down. A reminder...there has not been a $300 million earner yet THIS YEAR.
In 2012, five movies vaulted over $300 million and another six made it over $200 million.
We may be looking at another year like 2011 when the higher end of the box office numbers were pretty soft. I know it is not fair to judge years or box office performance just based on the top earners, but 2014 just doesn't appear to have many "big" films domestically.
Max Braden: The top story for me is how far Godzilla fell. For the past six months or year I think that Godzilla's trailers were making people think it was *the* movie to see this summer. Based on advance buzz, Godzilla should have crushed Captain America but it's not even close.
David Mumpower: First of all, I am diametrically opposed to Max on the subject of Godzilla’s performance. It is a blockbuster domestically before we even consider its superlative overseas performance. I suspect his dislike of the quality of the movie, another point of disagreement between us, is impacting his box office analysis.
For me, the story of the summer to date has been the power of the openers. When we first debuted BOP in 2001, there was a historic streak of $50+ million openers at a time when that was a historic level for opening weekends. What was remarkable that summer was the consistency of films opening to that level. In 2014, we had witnessed something similar prior to this past weekend.
Starting with The Amazing Spider-Man 2 the first week of May, all of the number one films were splendid performers. All six of them opened to at least $48 million, half of those virtually doubling that total at $90+ million. The average number one film for the first seven weeks of this summer was $71.3 million. These number one films of the summer grossed almost exactly half a billion on opening weekend. Frankly, I feel like there is nowhere to go but down from here because all of the heavyweights have excelled thus far.
Equally impressive is that Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return is the only unqualified bomb during the summer thus far. There have been some disappointments such as A Million Ways to Die in the West and Blended. Both of those films have effectively matched their budgets in terms of domestic box office, though. Since Transcendence in April, every movie that had a chance to be successful has at least performed acceptably. That basically never happens.
Kim Hollis: For me, the thing that really stands out this summer is the lack of staying power after opening weekend. In the past, we’ve seen a lot of films fall precipitously in weekend two and then recover, but that really hasn’t happened this summer. Most openers, with the key exception of Maleficent, have front-loaded their box office into their first three days. This is an emerging behavior that I think we’re going to want to continue to track.
Kim Hollis: Since we're approaching the halfway point of 2014, what is your favorite movie of the year so far?
Edwin Davies: Mine is easily Blue Ruin, a darkly funny revenge thriller that gets a lot of mileage from asking what it would be like if someone succeeded at getting what they wanted, but had no plan for what to do next. It's available through VOD now and I'd highly recommend it.
Special mention deserves to go to Edge of Tomorrow for being the most purely enjoyable blockbuster of the year, and possibly of the last three or four years.
Matthew Huntley: Godzilla is way up there for me (I think it's underrated in how well-made it is); followed then by Edge of Tomorrow.
Bruce Hall: As much as I'd like to burnish my street cred and tell you how cool The Grand Budapest Hotel is... The LEGO Movie.
It's not that it's the best thing I've seen this year, but it was the most unexpectedly fun. It's not that I went into it with a bad attitude, like the lady in front of me who said, right in front of her kids:
"Oh my god, I can't believe I'm about to sit through this stupid kids' movie."
Well lady, nobody put a Nerf gun to your head. But Mother of the Year did have a point; although made BY adults, movies aimed at children do not always make an effort to appeal in any way to those of us who have no choice but to watch. I like to call it the Finn McMissile Theorem.
So, it's the best thing ever when it works out. Our kids are into LEGOs, and when we were kids, we were into LEGOs. Someone remembered this, and the result is about as much fun as you'll have with - or in front of - your kids this year. I'd say it was awesome, but duh - everything is awesome.
Max Braden: This won't last, but of the dozen or so 2014 movies I've seen so far, Zac Efron's romantic comedy That Awkward Moment is my favorite. And that's a surprise to me, since I thought it looked like an afterthought movie from the trailers. What got me was the dialogue. Particularly the character-related dialogue and interaction between the guys - it's really funny. It's even more impressive that this is writer-director Tom Gormican's first developed movie. I'm not on board yet with Zac Efron but he didn't annoy me like I thought he would. I thought Miles Teller was laying it on a little thick in The Spectacular Now, but I liked him in this movie. And I thought Imogen Poots was adorable.
Of the blockbusters, my favorite so far is Captain America: The Winter Solider, with The Edge of Tomorrow close behind. Maleficent gets a special note for featuring my favorite character/actor of the year so far - I really liked Jolie in that role.
David Mumpower: I suspect that Gravity has ruined me for other blockbusters, at least in the short term. I mentioned recently how much I enjoyed Edge of Tomorrow yet I agree with the peanut gallery that it did not stick the landing. I loved a lot about Godzilla, particularly the climactic action sequence. It will probably not wind up in my top ten for the year, though.
Upon reflection, my favorite movie of the year to date is a sequel I do not enjoy as much as its predecessor and that is How to Train Your Dragon 2. I quite like the movie, would recommend it to everybody and consider it to be a likely top ten entrant. Like Kung Fu Panda 2 before it, the movie happens to be quite a bit more somber than the first film, something I admired about that title. I would note that the original was my number one film of 2010. So, possessing that sort of quality is a tall order for any sequel. 2010. So, possessing that sort of quality is a tall order for any sequel.
With regards to How to Train Your Dragon 2, I would have preferred a happier story. Still, it is exactly the kind of animated movie the industry needs to advance. The fact that it is underperforming at the box office frustrates me to no end. This is a wonderful story featuring some of the best characters created in the 2000s. The fact that the sequel did not break my heart is an achievement in and of itself, much like The Bourne Supremacy.
Kim Hollis: I echo David’s selection of How to Train Your Dragon 2 in almost every aspect of what he said. It’s a treasure of a movie that is not quite as good as its predecessor and yet is truly, truly wonderful. Yes, it is more somber, but I think that the movie does a masterful job of balancing its serious moments with its comedy. The pacing is handled very well. HTTYD2 has gorgeous animation, well-crafted characters and a storyline that feels like a natural progression.
Other films I’ve truly enjoyed this year are The Grand Budapest Hotel, Edge of Tomorrow (and I’m not troubled by the ending), X-Men: Days of Future Past and The LEGO Movie.