Daily Box Office Analysis
By David Mumpower
June 24, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
After debuting in first place on Friday with a heady $12.2 million, the sequel fell to second place on Saturday with $10.3 million, a drop of 15%. Sequels can see that sort of Friday-to-Saturday plummet. This particular title held just okay on Sunday, falling another 35% to $6.8 million. So, the project lost 44% of its audience just from Friday-to-Sunday. Worst of all, How to Train Your Dragon 2 was already beating it by day three, meaning that the strongest new release this week is already down to third place at the box office. It’s going to be that kind of week.
Monday’s box office confirmed that thought process. The number one movie in North America for the ninth time in 11 days is 22 Jump Street. Exiting a weekend where it fell a respectable 52% to $27.5 million, the Channing Tatum/Jonah Hill comedy basically repeated its rate of decline yesterday. Its winning Monday take of $3.6 million represents a 47% fall from last Monday’s $6.8 million. Slow and steady is winning the race in this instance as the cinematic adaptation of the Fox series has a running total of $113.5 million. The first film grossed $138.4 million during its entire domestic run while also needing 28 days to reach its sequel’s current take. 22 Jump Street is full of win.
The most enigmatic movie in release at the moment continued to puzzle yesterday. How to Train Your Dragon 2 fell a stiffer than expected 50% over the weekend. Before anyone tries to ding me for praising 22 Jump Street for the same performance, please consider the target audiences. Families generally provide a huge boost to the legs of animated movies. Conversely, comedies targeting the under-25 crowd tend to die quickly, at least historically. The 21 Jump Street franchise and Neighbors are demonstrating abnormal behavior in this regard. That irregularity does not change the fact that How to Train Your Dragon 2 should have claimed a sub-50% drop.
On Monday, the movie featuring my beloved Toothless earned $3.1 million. While we are already discussing a sub-$15 million set of weekdays, this news is actually good. In terms of Monday-to-Monday holdover, the DreamWorks Animation production did quite well. It fell only 38%, which is more in line with family film behavior as well as summer weekday box office behavior. Still, if you have told me two weeks ago that this particular movie would not have hit $100 million after 11 days in theaters, I would have laughed in your (virtual) face. Its current take of $97.7 million is simply too low for a follow-up to such a brilliant movie as the original.
Circling back to Think Like a Man Too, the third sequel at the top of the charts, it started its weekday run in third place with $2.48 million. Before Friday arrives, do not be surprised if it has fallen to fourth place, either. Maleficent should have a stronger in-week hold despite being three weeks older. The latest Kevin Hart project - aside: I hate having to single him out like this because I truly love everybody in this cast – fell 63% from Sunday to Monday. That is an alarming decline. If it does not stabilize on Tuesday, the best weekday for box office, it is going to have the legs of a baby bunny.
Maleficent may not be THE story for any of the weekday columns I have written this June yet it is the overall best story in terms of successful Monday-Thursday behavior. Another $1.7 million yesterday brings its grand total in North America to $187.6 million. It should cross the $200 million mark by Sunday, thereby becoming one of only half a dozen 2014 releases to do so by the time it reaches that milestone. Angelina Jolie’s still got it. In your face, (potential) cancer!
The other new release this past weekend was Jersey Boys, the latest unexpected project from avowed music lover Clint Eastwood. I find myself wondering if he wanted to close the circle with his directorial career since he debuted with Play Misty for Me, a movie with a seminal subplot involving the song Misty. Whatever his personal goals, Eastwood was once again left talking to many empty chairs this weekend as Jersey Boys managed only $13.3 million. On Monday, it finished in fourth place with $1.5 million while dropping 57% from Sunday’s $3.5 million.
As I note in Monday Morning Quarterback, I do not consider this a bad result, simply not one that is particularly exciting to discuss. It should earn back its budget after a period of time on home video. Plus, there is some ancillary revenue potential with the soundtrack, always a plus for penny-hungry Hollywood.
As we advance deeper into the summer movie campaign, the daily box office numbers become easier to evaluate. Last Thursday, I noted that the gap between Edge of Tomorrow and The Fault in Our Stars was beginning to close. At the time, the Tom Cruise science fiction project had only improved $100,000 yet this change in behavior indicated better legs for that project rather than the love story about teens dealing with cancer. Today, the gap has closed from $25.4 million to $24.9 million. Obviously, half a million is nothing in this industry. It is the underlying behavioral mechanics that matter.
For whatever reason, The Fault in Our Stars has proven to be a heavily front-loaded project. As of this moment, 26% of the movie’s current take was accrued on opening day, a fairly staggering stat for a title in release for 18 days. Still, the John Green adaptation did cross the $100 million barrier yesterday while also besting the Tom Cruise film in terms of box office. The Fault in Our Stars managed $1.4 million, a Monday-to-Monday drop of 38% on the heels of a 42% weekend drop. Repeat business is starting to become noticeable in the numbers as they grow smaller. The diehards should continue to keep its domestic box office afloat for at least another couple of weeks.
Meanwhile, Edge of Tomorrow held better on the weekend, falling only 41%. Since it also outgained The Fault in Our Stars by 15%, its weekend legs were far superior. Yesterday, the films flipped as Edge of Tomorrow grossed $1.2 million. Its 28% Monday-to-Monday decline is still tremendous. Word-of-mouth seems to be aiding the project, at least somewhat. It still has managed only $75.2 million domestically against a $178 million budget, though. The $218 million in foreign revenue is nice but as I recounted a couple of weeks ago, it needs a LOT more than that to finish its theatrical run in the black.
The top ten at the North American box office yesterday claimed combined revenue of $16.4 million. We are down 20% or $4 million in actual dollars from last Monday. In other words, this set of weekdays will be grim. I’m almost happy that a Michael Bay movie is around the corner. ALMOST.