Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
June 17, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: This is an excellent result all round. It represents a big jump from the first film, which is something you'd hope to see from a sequel to a popular, well-reviewed original, and while there was a bit of front-loading with the Thursday night screenings, there wasn't a huge amount of difference between the "true" Friday and Saturday, which suggests that the film might have good legs going forward just like its predecessor. I'm not sure if it could match the longevity of 21 Jump Street with that big a debut - the first one had an opening to closing ratio of 3.81, and if 22 Jump Street managed that it would wind up with around $215 million. Even if it doesn't manage that, $150 million seems a pretty safe bet, and it should improve hugely on the original's overseas total of $63.1 million (it's already earned over $20 million).
As far as why it opened so well, I think that lies mainly in the goodwill generated by the first, coupled with a relatively short gap of two years between the films. During that time, Jonah Hill notched up another Oscar nomination (in a successful R-rated comedy, no less) and Channing Tatum continued to be a big star. It also probably helps that Neighbors is still going fairly strong, and we often see that if a particular type of film succeeds, it can create demand for more of that kind of film. Having a huge R-rated comedy come along, get people excited for it, then fade away so that it's not really competing for the same audience could have created an even better environment for 22 Jump Street, which already had plenty of advantages.
Brett Ballard-Beach: With the second highest debut ever for an R-rated comedy (after The Hangover Part II) and the fact that critics and audiences seem to be enjoying it at least as much as the first one), this opening can not be overstated in its success.
Felix Quinonez: I think this is one of the somewhat rare cases where you can call the opening weekend a huge win without any qualifiers. The budget was modest by Hollywood standards, so that doesn't put any sort of damper on the results. And the reviews and audience reaction were great so the the movie has a legitimate chance of strong legs. This is a big win for everyone involved and another sequel definitely seems to be in the cards.
Bruce Hall: I think we have a bona fide franchise on our hands. There is indeed a lot of good will out there for the original film, and for its two leads. That made it easier for the sequel to predictably pile similar jokes on top of each other again (as sequels are wont to do) and nearly double the first film's opening frame.
Also, did it earn its production budget back in one weekend? Yes.
Also, is it going to eclipse the original's final domestic take? Without a doubt.
Also, will there be a third installment? Of course there will. The only remaining mystery is what it will be called. Damned if I can decipher their oh-so-clever naming convention.
Jason Barney: I think the conversations of a franchise being born are totally in line. 21 Jump Street performed above expectations in 2012 by eclipsing its budget very early in its run. 22 Jump Street has brought everyone back, accomplished the same with respect to its budget, and will grow the profits of the original quite nicely. The $200 million against a $42 million budget of the original is easily going to be surpassed here. The opening of 22 Jump Street isn't double the first installment, but the numbers are spectacular enough. When critics buzz about the growth of the industry and the box office being red hot, 22 Jump Street is a perfect example of success.
Kim Hollis: I think it's remarkable that 22 Jump Street beat How to Train Your Dragon 2, a family-targeted film with spectacular reviews and a sequel to a successful first movie. I did expect the box office for 22 Jump Street to expand, and it's obvious that the solid reviews and word-of-mouth made this a must-see.
David Mumpower: The primary difference between XX Jump Street and The Hangover X is that there have been two exceptional Jump Street movies thus far. That total doubles the number of even half-decent Hangover movies. So, we can see the difference in a "franchise" that ran one concept into the ground as opposed to one that is focused on quality and will have sustained success as long as it continues to do so. We are discussing 22 Jump Street as an unqualified hit at the moment. Now, imagine how big the opening for 23 Jump Street will be. It could be north of $75 million.
Kim Hollis: With The LEGO Movie, Jump Street and Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs franchises all under their highly successful guidance, have Phil Lord and Christopher Miller moved into the upper echelons of Hollywood writer/directors?
Edwin Davies: It definitely seems like they have reached that point and have been recognized as a force by the industry itself. It speaks volumes about their position now that they were approached as one of the few serious replacements for Ivan Reitman on Ghostbusters 3 (and it speaks volumes about their savvy as artists and businessmen that they turned it down, realizing what a poisoned pill that film would probably wind up being). They've directed four films to date, all of which have opened at #1 at the US Box Office (and they co-wrote and produced a fifth), all of which earned (or, in the case of 22 Jump Street, will likely earn) more than $100 million domestically and at least $200 million worldwide. That's a hell of a streak, especially for two guys whose early work consists largely of one great, cultishly adored TV series and a lot of projects that never got off the ground. I'd be very surprised if they aren't being approached for pretty much every comedy currently in development. They are, quite simply, so hot right now.
I'd be interested to find out how well known they are outside of the industry and the world of film fans/critics. Since there's very little overlap between their animated and live-action work, they basically have two separate, wildly successful careers going. I wonder how many people are aware that the same guys who directed The LEGO Movie directed 22 Jump Street. It's not as if you could put their credit for either film on the poster of the other.
Brett Ballard-Beach: Their quartet of features to date have all been positively received by the critics in addition to making fantastic box office. What makes it exciting for me is that they are able to make family films and adult films that feel smart and stupid, subversive and conventional, in equal measures and that somehow have genuine emotional cores to boot. And I still haven't seen Clone High... (please don't hurt me).
David Mumpower: First of all, how did Brett wind up on staff without having watched Clone High? That's an oversight on somebody's part. For that matter, people should not be able to read this column until they have watched Clone High. We have standards to uphold, folks!
I think we are all agreeing on two points. The first is that most people have no idea who these two gentlemen are. That speaks to the nature of being a content creator for giant corporations. We do not see a lot of folks receive name recognition for their work these days, which is unfortunate. The second point is that those same studio executives at giant corporations are fixated upon purpose, and that is the making of the money. Lord and Miller have demonstrated an uncanny ability to create great movies that also earn tremendous box office. That merging of art and commerce is the rarest of commodities in our industry. I have trouble reconciling the fact that the two guys we have been championing for a dozen years now are suddenly power players in the industry. Then again, I would note that the same is true of Joss Whedon, Aaron Sorkin and (to a lesser extent) Edgar Wright. So, we picked the right filmmakers back in the early days of BOP. It's nice that the rest of the world is finally catching up.
Kim Hollis: I love their work and am extremely impressed at the results that they have been able to achieve thus far. With that said, I don't know that they can be considered "upper echelon" at this point. If you want an excellent funny movie, they're absolutely the guys to call. But I also admire that they're selective about their projects. That kind of continued solid decision making is a significant reason why they likely will be amongst the top tier of directors at some point. I'd agree that most people probably have no idea that the same guys who directed The LEGO Movie helmed 21 and 22 Jump Street.